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October Discobs 2019


George BM
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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Updated forecast for my yard is for 1 - 1.5 inches. We shall see.

Latest NAM is showing 2+ for you. Also shows 2+ DC north and east with Balt. at 3.5. Really wet run. And looking at radar looks as if it might lend some credence to the NAM.

eta: Fairly sharp cutoff to the N and w though where I am only looking at .5 inches. But that was to be expected.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Latest NAM is showing 2+ for you. Also shows 2+ DC north and east with Balt. at 3.5. Really wet run. And looking at radar looks as if it might lend some credence to the NAM.

Yeah the NAM was being discounted by many forecasters a day ago, but it may end up being correct. Most guidance has trended towards its closer track/wetter solution.

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Well, 1.07 emptied out of the CoCoRaHS gauge at 7 am and it is still raining at a fairly heavy rate. I can see what looks like the back edge down near Blacksburg/Radford and heading this way, but I may be in the 1.5 storm total range by time all this ends. Not bad for most models minus the NAM giving me +-0.25  two days ago........ Currently rain and 47.7/47.0, wind NNE at 5mph.

EDIT- I see several 2"+ reports down in the New River Valley on CoCoRaHS

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23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

.10" 

50 with drizzle occasionally light rain. Guidance has been hinting at either drier air or some sort of subsidence hindering totals north of i70 especially and radar trends agree imo. 3k is way overdone for Baltimore north me thinks.  Hrrr looks more realistic. 

Yeah I mentioned this yesterday. This storm is moving into a wall of HP,  so it will be a struggle the further north it gets. GFS has been pretty consistent with depicting this.

Steady moderate rain here, and I doubt I will see any real heavy rain. Hopefully several hours of light to moderate, which is exactly what is needed to dent the drought and get moisture deeper into the soil.

eta- looks like the radar is filling in nicely over your area.

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