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October Discobs 2019


George BM
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1 hour ago, peribonca said:

Will be interesting to watch the trends in this one as practice for this winter... Will we get dry slotted as some models suggest or will the coastal transfer occur far enough South for us to get into the action. I'm going with dry slot...

Essentially a Miller B. The latest GFS has the primary vort holding strong all the way to Ontario before fully transferring off the coast of Mass. We all get some rain from the initial low but re-development is way, way too late for us to get in on the good stuff. The Euro, on the other hand was much closer to rainier solution as it had an earlier transfer (DE coast) and stronger secondary low, which brought the deluge into PHL and even far northeastern MD.

Will be interesting to see the trends at 12z. I do wonder if the GFS is being too progressive, especially since the 6z GEFS re-developed the secondary farther south and west than the operational. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Comes fast and furious too.  All that in about 4-6 hours.  

Looks like it's all from the primary low, especially N and W of DC. As soon as the transfer occurs, precip shuts off rapidly from W to E. Huge dry slot through central PA and NW Virginia. 

Let's hope this storm isn't a sign of things to come in the winter.

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1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said:

Looks like it's all from the primary low, especially N and W of DC. As soon as the transfer occurs, precip shuts off rapidly from W to E. Huge dry slot through central PA and NW Virginia. 

Let's hope this storm isn't a sign of things to come in the winter.

If this is a sign that this winter could bring 0.9” of QPF In 4-6 hours from a transferring/bombing Miller B, then I’ll quietly accept what’s given and quickly shut the door behind me.

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Mount Holly's thoughts on the model discrepancies-

The biggest uncertainty (as usual) is with QPF, with the GFS much drier than the ECMWF/NAM (roughly middle of the road), and the CMC much wetter. This is clearly tied to how close the newly developing low tracks to the coast, with the CMC nearest the CWA and the GFS/NAM much farther offshore. The ECMWF is well between the two extremes and agrees with ensemble means as well. Given these factors, used a blend of model QPF for the Wednesday/Wednesday night forecast as well, but with slightly more weight to the ECMWF and NAM. The result is widespread 1-2 inch totals (highest amounts north and east). Notably, the GFS features totals about 50-75 percent of these values, with the CMC in the range of 2-4+ inches. (In other words, large uncertainty remains.)

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20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Solid overnight runs. GFS still the holdout but all the rest onboard for a healthy rain. Euro is 1.5” for MBY! It’s happening?

Over the last 24 hours, each run of the gfs has gotten better for rainfall along the corridor, so hopefully it will be more in line with the euro later today.  I'll take anything, but if I can eek out an inch or more of precip, I'd be thrilled.

There also looks like another decent chance of another soaking next week.

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30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Over the last 24 hours, each run of the gfs has gotten better for rainfall along the corridor, so hopefully it will be more in line with the euro later today.  I'll take anything, but if I can eek out an inch or more of precip, I'd be thrilled.

There also looks like another decent chance of another soaking next week.

Almost  seems with tomorrow's event we might turn the corner, dare I say. 

Day 4 to 5 

 

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Wow, to day 6 and 7 , system and moisture look to move NE towards us day at  8 

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1571139459

 

 

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15 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just bored to death tracking partly cloudy and 65 in our yards :D and hearing about the drought...I mean (CAPE's drought lol).Long range is lookin fairly active too.

works for me, its been hella boring lately (at least in terms of discussion). Droughts don't do it for me lol 

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39 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Over the last 24 hours, each run of the gfs has gotten better for rainfall along the corridor, so hopefully it will be more in line with the euro later today.  I'll take anything, but if I can eek out an inch or more of precip, I'd be thrilled.

There also looks like another decent chance of another soaking next week.

Yeah, next week looking good for now as well with a similar sort of storm/storms.  BWI is running a ~6" deficit on the year, which is a pretty big hole to climb out of, but maybe possible.  

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First mention of snow for the season for my P&C in Deep Creek!

Wednesday Night
Rain showers likely before 4am, then rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 
Thursday
Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain before noon, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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