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October Discobs 2019


George BM
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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Threat 2 ull closer to the coast and stronger at 12z on Euro . Definitely interesting to see how it pans out for us. Many areas esp 95 and east do decent from the ull this run ...qpf  distribution a little further west this run includes DC area this time .

@C.A.P.E.s yard does real well 

It's never bad to have the Euro on board at this range. Other models have hinted, but most are keeping the precip confined to the coast currently.

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29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Threat 2 ull closer to the coast and stronger at 12z on Euro . Definitely interesting to see how it pans out for us. Many areas esp 95 and east do decent from the ull this run ...qpf  distribution a little further west this run includes DC area this time . Moisture transport looks decent at 700 and esp 850 mb 

 

@C.A.P.E.s yard does real well 

Hopefully the EPS will support

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is only model to show this it seems, but it's really bullish.  Would be a big bust for the Euro to miss this bad inside of 48 hours.  I hope it's right.  

This is preseason training for the Euro as far as I am concerned.

If it handles this set up correctly I will feel more confident about the Euro's forecasts regarding cyclogenesis in the winter months ahead. Go Euro ! 

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Looking at the West  Pac and how the typhoon plays out, I like this post by Webb . 

If correct, this set up plays into a warm ending for October overall along the East Coast and then the potential for a flip further down the line in November if you roll things forward. 

Many seem to think recurving typhoons are a lock for a trough in the East but the latitude and general extratropical transition are key pieces to consider.  

 

 

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Going along with Webb's post above,  and this post by Ben,  the general look over Western Canada and the NW US should really put down some snow cover. Meanwhile  things up North should really start to chill in the weeks ahead, as a reservoir  of cold air develops due to the consolidating PV.   

 

 

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From Mount Holly-

Showers then spread southward late in the evening, but should mostly dry up before getting to far southern New Jersey and Delmarva. Overall, expecting 1/2-3/4" QPF north and west of the Fall Line, and not much more than 1/10" QPF south and east of the Fall Line.

We won`t see much relief across the region from this potentially wet pattern until another cold front crosses the region over the weekend. As the front moves eastward and into our area, it will help to push the stalled low to the northeast and bring at least a brief respite from the cloudy and wet weather across our area as the winds finally turn to the west/northwest and dry air can start to make its way into the area.

 

What the hell are they on about? Been reading their discussions a lot recently and it would appear they have no idea significant parts of their forecast area is in a moderate drought. Yes, yes, we just can't take all this wetness! No relief! Da fuk outta here.

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32 minutes ago, yoda said:

It was raining enough at Nats Park I guess that Collier, the Nats Twitter writer, said he hoped that they didnt see the Skittles tarp tonight

Middle of the regular season, absolutely the tarp would have paid a visit for a while.  Playoffs, deal with it.  We're getting this game in.

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8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha I rib you every now and again (all in good fun) but @C.A.P.E. slowly descending into madness as his backyard turns into the Saharan is pretty funny. Better now than winter. 

It's the moles. Growing new grass.. constantly watering (because it won't rain) so they come towards the only wet ground for miles and miles to hunt for worms. What a quandary.

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23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0.00”

 

0z Euro still has a blob of heavy rain for Columbia/Annapolis/Baltimore/NEMD tomorrow. Really could use that.

6z NAM with a big jump to the euro solution. 0z had nothing. Still a bit east of the euro so it keeps my yard in the screw zone.

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