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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Depends on which guidance is correct. Euro/EPS is trending toward dropping everything into the west and southwest while the GEFS and Canadians do not so they are frigid near Halloween. 

EPS have higher skill at this range so you'd hedge a bit there. But they've also been awful a couple times already this fall overplaying warmth up here.

 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depends on which guidance is correct. Euro/EPS is trending toward dropping everything into the west and southwest while the GEFS and Canadians do not so they are frigid near Halloween. 

EPS have higher skill at this range so you'd hedge a bit there. But they've also been awful a couple times already this fall overplaying warmth up here.

 

Still have that SW bias?

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depends on which guidance is correct. Euro/EPS is trending toward dropping everything into the west and southwest while the GEFS and Canadians do not so they are frigid near Halloween. 

EPS have higher skill at this range so you'd hedge a bit there. But they've also been awful a couple times already this fall overplaying warmth up here.

 

Yup...perfect summation elucidating the differences ...

Fwiw - to the general reader, my take on things. With regard to the American -based tele progs, the CDC is more emphatic about the PNA mode changing from negative to positive spanning these last ten days or so of the month, compared the CPC ...  if you see this chart below, tomorrow ... next day, be careful that it may not update, but this is what it was from last night's release from the CDC:

image.thumb.png.e83c3e4713d6ba0b93b4bdc81562d71e.png

In a vacuum this is a whopper cold signal.  It's not just a pronounced and thick PNA mode change that is impressive... The NAO is decidely negative "as" the PNA is rising.. This would actually portend an Archembaultian signal if this were a month from now and the tele's were both, more dependable, but the hemisphere would be more indicative of an established pattern therein.  The EPO is negative too - with ain't hurin ;) - but, I suspect it is negative because the PNA is in fact so amplified that it's over-lapping into the EPO's lower latitude domain space ...which is weighting the index some - speculative.  The WPO .. some semblance of a mode change to negative but it's so slight that I'm not sure that sending much correlation downstream just yet.  I don't think either way the Pacific is in a hurry to send a warm look either, tho -

Having said all that, the CPC is interesting rendering a bit of a blase PNA compared to the coherence of these bar-graphs above:

image.png.3f1275c73dfde90b77ed5eabea14fd69.png

 

I'm not really sure which should be paramount in assessing the mass-field forcing to be honest.  I 'tend' to lean CPC in the winter, and CDC in the summer?  But the coins turning over in the air in mid stride between those seasons.  A few of the members mop-end and rise positive but there are a lot that remain neutral neggie out there, which is in a pretty clear conflict with week 2 CDC appeal. 

One thing that I also find interesting is that the AO is trying to start out modestly negative, then drops to -2 or so SD for ten or so day, before relaxing a little way out there ( which is obviously up for grabs by the end of week 2...)

image.png.3c6127665ff8a7d63b4f8922c9a1399b.png

Putting all this in a blender and hitting frappe pours a glass that tastes chilly overall from the GFS cluster. 

As far as the Euro/EPS ... I'm not fully convinced that technology is completely without its older bias of tending to plumb heights too deeply in the SW.  Some sages may recall that was a big problem with that guidance like... 20 years ago. But through time and upgrades the greater pith of that bias has improved, admittedly, ...at least per my own observation.  But it still seems at times that given lesser excuse it has a panache where it's still trying to do that. Many of it's overtly large ridges and heat signals of the summer that failed were - I think - related to lowering heights to prodigiously...even if subtle, out west.   It's not impossible it's too "tucky" with that inside slider it's got betwixt D7-10. The EPS if of course a little flatter, but that's typical..  Here's the thing, a mid way correction ...even say, 1/3 yielding to the GFS ( so partial ) would be be enough to see substantively colder as far E as Detroit I feel...

I dunno...I'm a little uneasy about the Euro clusters height distribution out there in the extended.

I was initially impressed over a week ago and posted about this period between the 20th of October and ~ the 10th of Novie... This is really more like emerging toward ..or perhaps re-emerging, toward a prior signal.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Is there any correlation to a -nao October and how the ensuing winter behaves in that region?

The short answer?   ... maybe    how's that  Lol

oy... The thing with the NAO is that is a fickle beast. It has marked intra-seasonal, and even intra-weekly time -scaled variances that are headachy .. virtually impossible to predict at seasonal time lengths in general. 

That immediately intuits that any correlation between a couple of run-ins with neggie NAO would be met with more 'noisiness' when trying to drub an tendency out of any given year.

Having said that ... the 'maybe' part of that is:  The NAO also appears to follow the AMO... which runs along a rough 30 to 40 year periodicity that oscillates between negative and positive - similar and in fact, it may even be the same as the PDO ( just off the top of my head..).   SO, if we are in a negative(positive) regime therein, the NAO may be innately prone to being negative in general in October, as well as the proper cold season due to that preexisting tendency.

 

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And up north, those winds brought snow to the picnic tables.

What an absolutely stunning day of blue skies and a high of 50F at MVL. 

Snow didn't melt above 3,000ft and I will say, looking up from town at a snow capped Mansfield certainly gets one in the mood for winter.

Already down to 36F here at 8pm.  Going to be a cold night.

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