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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Just some quick observations: I know I’ll catch a lot of weenie tags for this, but the 12z euro looks like an analog of the 1991 perfect storm, in terms of the major players (NOT impact).  Many similarities, including the Halloween blizzard that buried the upper Midwest at the same time. There’s obviously some key differences as well —nothing (yet) has this system deepening anywhere close to the 970’s. The absorption of hurricane Grace helped to make that storm quite unique...*If* anything remarkable can happen with this it will have be through some combination of absorption of tropical disturbances west of Bermuda and deepening as a sub tropical cyclone in and around the Gulf Stream. 

The GFS is still largely a non-event so confidence in anything impactful is still low...

 

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/1991halloweenblizzard

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just some quick observations: I know I’ll catch a lot of weenie tags for this, but the 12z euro looks like an analog of the 1991 perfect storm, in terms of the major players (NOT impact).  Many similarities, including the Halloween blizzard that buried the upper Midwest at the same time. There’s obviously some key differences as well —nothing (yet) has this system deepening anywhere close to the 970’s. The absorption of hurricane Grace helped to make that storm quite unique...*If* anything remarkable can happen with this it will have be through some combination of absorption of tropical disturbances west of Bermuda and deepening as a sub tropical cyclone in and around the Gulf Stream. 

The GFS is still largely a non-event so confidence in anything impactful is still low...

 

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/1991halloweenblizzard

interesting that there was a midwest snow event with that one-I forgot about that...will be interesting to track one or both events this week!

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just some quick observations: I know I’ll catch a lot of weenie tags for this, but the 12z euro looks like an analog of the 1991 perfect storm, in terms of the major players (NOT impact).  Many similarities, including the Halloween blizzard that buried the upper Midwest at the same time. There’s obviously some key differences as well —nothing (yet) has this system deepening anywhere close to the 970’s. The absorption of hurricane Grace helped to make that storm quite unique...*If* anything remarkable can happen with this it will have be through some combination of absorption of tropical disturbances west of Bermuda and deepening as a sub tropical cyclone in and around the Gulf Stream. 

The GFS is still largely a non-event so confidence in anything impactful is still low...

 

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/1991halloweenblizzard

 

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GFS has been too far East with the players for 3 days. 

I was  on the beach for the Perfect Storm. Epic epic waves with rogue waves so big offshore they blocked  the horizon flat line . Think we had sustained 60 for 18 hrs. Huge rock thrown up over the dunes dented my car. I watched one rogue wave over wash the dunes and flood a house down the street. 

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