psv88 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: The last 7 days of October going out in style at an average of 58degs., or about 6degs. AN. No BN days apparently, afterall. Month to date is +2.0[60.0]. October should end at +2.7[59.6]. 54.3* here at 6am. You mean the Euro beat the GFS long term? And people are foolish for buying it? You dont say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 48 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think the cold and finally some snow occurs around November 20th and on. December starts average and we have a white Christmas and very cold New Years. January is normal in the beginning with mostly small snow events until you hit mid February we can get a really big snowstorm. Early February is cutter city. Average temps throughout winter. March is cold and some snow early and than spring comes in early this year. This belongs in banter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Crisp this morning; 36. Sweatshirt weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: This belongs in banter. it belongs in trash 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 GFS a drencher for Sunday 1-2 inches region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Quite a smoky haze out there today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: GFS a drencher for Sunday 1-2 inches region wide Gfs has been the wettest. Should be a red flag that its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Soaker on gfs for halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs has been the wettest. Should be a red flag that its wrong It's got tropical origins, I think we'll get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Soaker on gfs for halloween euro is is very different for halloween a bit unsettled but minimal amounts of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's got tropical origins, I think we'll get a good hit. I tend to agree-PWATS on the Euro touch 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: euro is is very different a bit unsettled but minimal amounts of rain I’ll go with whatever opposite of euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: euro is is very different a bit unsettled but minimal amounts of rain I wouldn't call the precip amounts minimal on the 12Z Euro. Has .50" to 1.75" depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I wouldn't call the precip amounts minimal on the 12Z Euro. Has .50" to 1.75" depending on location. I was talking about Halloween-I'll edit my post to make it clearer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I was talking about Halloween-I'll edit my post to make it clearer Ah, gotcha. Yes for Halloween I agree on your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Sunday is all about where the warm front stalls out. Euro PWATS are 1.75”to 2.00”.The record for the last week of October is 1.8”on the OKX sounding climo. We just don’t know yet where the axis of heaviest rains will set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I’ll go with whatever opposite of euro! hows that cold stretch for this week the GFS advertised going? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 hours ago, bluewave said: This persistent -PNA pattern resulted in a big shift west for the Pacific SST warm blob. It moved from near California to the Aleutians since Labor Day. This reflects a pattern with only transient cool downs before the SE Ridge reloads. Seems to show as well that N PAC temp anomalies respond to the pattern vs the other way around. The insane PAC Jet pattern needs to calm down though before we can get sustained cold here and hope for a pattern other than regular cutters. Luckily it’s still mid-Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 The stalled patterns this decade are really something. Imagine if the next stuck pattern is a Midwest trough to go with our WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Seems to show as well that N PAC temp anomalies respond to the pattern vs the other way around. The insane PAC Jet pattern needs to calm down though before we can get sustained cold here and hope for a pattern other than regular cutters. Luckily it’s still mid-Fall. Yeah, the SST’s warm under the areas where the blocking ridges get stuck.The ridge axis keeps building near the Aleutians. So we get a persistent SE Ridge pattern. The warm SST’s and ridges probably enhance each other in the locations where they line up together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: hows that cold stretch for this week the GFS advertised going? Terrible call by me. At least I got the second half of October being wet. Full pattern change mid November snow by the 22nd is my newest call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Terrible call by me. At least I got the second half of October being wet. Full pattern change mid November snow by the 22nd is my newest call Stop hugging the GFS, its a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 40 minutes ago, psv88 said: Stop hugging the GFS, its a horrible model. It really is, complete fail for late October. Cool down keeps getting pushed back, looks incredibly warm for last week of October into November now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It really is, complete fail for late October. Cool down keeps getting pushed back, looks incredibly warm for last week of October into November now. use the GFS at one's own risk. Euro and its ensembles are the way to go...until I see cold there forget about it. Still waiting for a frost here. Had some scattered frost a couple of mornings but still hearing crickets and the annuals are still going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: use the GFS at one's own risk. Euro and its ensembles are the way to go...until I see cold there forget about it. Still waiting for a frost here. Had some scattered frost a couple of mornings but still hearing crickets and the annuals are still going This says it all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 A warmer than normal October is poised to end on a warmer than normal note. Before then, a moderate to significant rainstorm could affect the region Saturday night and Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rain is possible. Cooler air will move into the region to start November. Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -16.76 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.493. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely. On October 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.180 (RMM). The October 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.652. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.5°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. That historic experience with the MJO lends support to the latest EPS weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies, both of which show warmer than normal conditions predominating during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 99%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Last October first freeze was 10/19, and we had 2 more freezes before the end of the month. This year low so far is 37 and no 30s in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: This says it all. And don't see that changing this winter. Anyone predicting a rockin winter is gonna get burned. The good stuff will be out west yet again. We need a massive pattern reshuffle. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 The last 6 days of October erupt to average 61degs., or about 9degs. AN.( complete bust squared) Month to date is +2.1[59.9]. At this rate October may end at +3.2[60.1]. Not as nutty as last November which was +6.0 for Nov. 1-7 and -6.2 for Nov. 8-30 giving a -3.3 overall. So still some hope. In order for this SON to end up BN, November will have to be about -5.5[42.2]. Last time November was that low is in 1976. How 'bout that Foot of Snow on the 7th! 57.3* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: And don't see that changing this winter. Anyone predicting a rockin winter is gonna get burned. The good stuff will be out west yet again. We need a massive pattern reshuffle. Dude seriously ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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