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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

he record Pacific warming that began in 2013 has had a big impact on our weather patterns. The favored areas for cold have been the Upper Plains, Midwest, and Western Great Lakes. I think that is why the composite resembles several winter forecasts that have been released so far including the Weather Company and CPC. But you never really know for sure for each individual winter with all the volatility that we have seen.

Of course, I see many  mets and private services going with more recent winter analogs and many mets are beginning to question analogs form the past due to recent GW.  Possibly they feel they have less value. However, I still think there is value to be gained from the past if you allow for what we have seen the last 7 years around these parts, and then tweak your analog package to account for the current climate regime. 

As for that map you posted, that is a good visual of the way things have gone recently this decade.  However, I have to think if we get the re-emergence of a winter -NAO the NE section of the country will be much colder.  

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

Of course, I see many  mets and private services going with more recent winter analogs and many mets are beginning to question analogs form the past due to recent GW.  Possibly they feel they have less value. However, I still think there is value to be gained from the past if you allow for what we have seen the last 7 years around these parts, and then tweak your analog package to account for the current climate regime. 

As for that map you posted, that is a good visual of the way things have gone recently this decade.  However, I have to think if we get the re-emergence of a winter -NAO the NE section of the country will be much colder.  

what I've seen is some say that weak el ninos may not be as snowy anymore, and we might have to hope for moderate or even strong el ninos to still get that kind of pattern (perhaps the busts from last year had something to do with that.)

 

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20 minutes ago, frd said:

Of course, I see many  mets and private services going with more recent winter analogs and many mets are beginning to question analogs form the past due to recent GW.  Possibly they feel they have less value. However, I still think there is value to be gained from the past if you allow for what we have seen the last 7 years around these parts, and then tweak your analog package to account for the current climate regime. 

As for that map you posted, that is a good visual of the way things have gone recently this decade.  However, I have to think if we get the re-emergence of a winter -NAO the NE section of the country will be much colder.  

Cold winters have been tough to come by for the NYC Metro since the 15-16 super El Niño. Our last cold winter was 14-15. Mild winters and humid summers have been the recent dominant pattern. Be interesting to see how long it takes to deviate from this recent winter and summer regime.
 

2010’s winter temperature departures

09-10....below

10-11....below

11-12....above

12-13....above

13-14....below

14-15....below

15-16....above

16-17.....above

17-18.....above

18-19.....above

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what I've seen is some say that weak el ninos may not be as snowy anymore, and we might have to hope for moderate or even strong el ninos to still get that kind of pattern (perhaps the busts from last year had something to do with that.)

 

You might like this research , it touches on your statement. There is discussion on absolute versus relative anomalies .

 

 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

You might like this research , it touches on your statement. There is discussion on absolute versus relative anomalies .

 

 

Thanks!  I found this embedded in the same thread:

https://ggweather.com/enso/ca_elnino.htm

Per SF data, the last Strong La Nina, 2010-2011, had more rainfall (28.87") than the last Strong El Nino, 2015-2016. (23.26")

Maybe this new metric can help improve our forecasts during both El Nino and La Nina winters?

 

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the last 30 winters in NYC...the ave temp...lowest min...coldest 30 day period...total snowfall...snowiest 30 day period...biggest snowfalls...

winter...…….Dec-Feb...season/coldest/total/snowiest

season...….ave temp.....min...30 days snow...30 days...4" snow storms or biggest storm...

1990-91..........39.2..........10........34.5...24.9"...15.6".......7.2"...5.7"...8.9"...
1991-92..........37.2..........11........30.3...12.4".....9.4".......6.2"
1992-93..........35.0............7........31.0...24.5"...19.5".......4.3"...10.6"...
1993-94..........31.2...........-2........23.5...53.4"...30.8".......4.0"...4.5"...9.0"...12.8"...5.0"...
1994-95..........37.1............6........31.5...11.8"...11.6".......10.8"...
1995-96..........32.3............5........27.7...75.6"...35.2".......7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"...
1996-97..........37.8............4........31.7...10.0".....6.1".......3.5".....
1997-98..........39.6..........14........37.3.....5.5".....5.0".......5.5"...
1998-99..........38.7............9........31.3...12.7".....6.5".......4.5"...
1999-00..........36.2............3........26.2...16.3"...14.7".......5.5"...

2000-01..........33.5..........14........29.9...35.0"...20.3"......12.0"...6.0"...5.7"...
2001-02..........41.5..........19........35.4.....3.5".....3.5".......3.0"...
2002-03..........31.2............7........25.9...49.3"...29.6".......6.0"...5.0"...5.3"...19.8"...4.0"...
2003-04..........32.4............1........22.5...42.6"...19.8".......14.0"...5.8"...5.7"...10.3"...
2004-05..........35.4............5........29.5...41.0"...20.2".......13.8"...5.0"...6.0"...7.7"...
2005-06..........37.3..........14........33.5...40.0"...28.9".......5.8"...26.9"...
2006-07..........36.5............8........25.8...12.4".....7.8".......5.5"...
2007-08..........36.4..........10........35.7...11.9".....9.0".......6.0"...
2008-09..........34.2............6........27.9...27.6"...13.3".......4.5"...4.3"...8.3"...
2009-10..........33.8..........13........31.6...51.4"...38.2".......10.9"...10.0"...5.0"...20.9"...

2010-11..........32.7............6.........28.1...61.9"...37.6"......20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"...
2011-12..........40.5..........13.........37.0.....7.4".....4.5"......4.3"...

2012-13..........36.9..........11.........31.5...26.1"...13.7"......4.7"...11.4"...

2013-14..........33.0............4.........28.5...57.4"...42.1"......5.0"...6.4"...11.5"...8.0"...4.0"...9.5"

2014-15..........31.7............2.........23.9...50.3"...22.6"......9.8"...5.3".....4.0"...4.8"...7.5"...4.5"

2015-16..........41.0...........-1.........34.4...32.8"...32.8"......27.5"

2016-17..........39.3...…....14...…....35.4...30.2"...11.0"......9.4"...7.6"...5.1"

2017-18..........36.2......…...5...…....27.1...40.9"...17.5"......9.8"...8.4"...4.6"...4.4"

2018-19...……..36.2.……...…2...…....30.8...20.5"...13.0"......6.4"...4.0"...5.0"

 

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs a cold winter to have a shot at a 50” or greater snowfall season. But had its two greatest snowstorms on record during the warm 05-06 and 15-16 winters.

I'm thinking we could get a similar winter to 2005-06 and 2015-16 with one big storm either in February or March and some snow in December...as of today my top analogue is 1959-60...the last time I used it was for the 2005-06 winter...59-60 had some snow in December and a big storm in March...2005-06 had some snow in December and a big storm in February...

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41 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I'm thinking we could get a similar winter to 2005-06 and 2015-16 with one big storm either in February or March and some snow in December...as of today my top analogue is 1959-60...the last time I used it was for the 2005-06 winter...59-60 had some snow in December and a big storm in March...2005-06 had some snow in December and a big storm in February...

My 3 favorite seasons for snowstorms this decade were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 

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11 hours ago, nycwinter said:

heat was turned on all last night whew need to have a fan on when i sleep...

 

10 hours ago, weathermedic said:

NYC Heating Season Specifics

Heating season runs from Oct. 1 through May 31. Landlords are required to follow the temperature guidelines below:

  •  From 6 a.m. to 10 p.m., the indoor temperature must be at least 68 degrees if the outside temperature falls below 55 degrees.
  • The temperature must be at least 62 degrees between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., regardless of outside temperature.

 

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Get a space heater.

Heat will most likely be on by November 1

 

8 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

He doesnt have to. The law is on his side

@LibertyBell

@weathermedic

@nycwinter

i bought a small electric heater  just for the next few days. Only because people are greedy and they won’t follow the law for a few hundred, thanks for the advice. Cold night coming up 52 right now probably going down to 44

edit: as I was talking crap the heat went on lol. Very happy right now just for my son I don’t care for me

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In the wake of yesterday's rainstorm, cooler weather and gusty winds prevailed. Milder conditions will gradually return in coming days. Tropical Storm Nestor will likely make landfall over the Florida Panhandle tonight and then track rapidly to the east northeast. Its rain should pass south of the New York City Metro area on Sunday night. Parts of the Middle Atlantic region including Washington and Baltimore could see some showers from Nestor.

The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions increasingly appear likely to persist through the first week of November as the Arctic Oscillation goes negative for a time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +2.25 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.594.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer outcome still appears more likely than not.

On October 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.115 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.981.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 58.5°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 73%.

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8 hours ago, uncle W said:

the last 30 winters in NYC...the ave temp...lowest min...coldest 30 day period...total snowfall...snowiest 30 day period...biggest snowfalls...

winter...…….Dec-Feb...season/coldest/total/snowiest

season...….ave temp.....min...30 days snow...30 days...4" snow storms or biggest storm...

1990-91..........39.2..........10........34.5...24.9"...15.6".......7.2"...5.7"...8.9"...
1991-92..........37.2..........11........30.3...12.4".....9.4".......6.2"
1992-93..........35.0............7........31.0...24.5"...19.5".......4.3"...10.6"...
1993-94..........31.2...........-2........23.5...53.4"...30.8".......4.0"...4.5"...9.0"...12.8"...5.0"...
1994-95..........37.1............6........31.5...11.8"...11.6".......10.8"...
1995-96..........32.3............5........27.7...75.6"...35.2".......7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"...
1996-97..........37.8............4........31.7...10.0".....6.1".......3.5".....
1997-98..........39.6..........14........37.3.....5.5".....5.0".......5.5"...
1998-99..........38.7............9........31.3...12.7".....6.5".......4.5"...
1999-00..........36.2............3........26.2...16.3"...14.7".......5.5"...

2000-01..........33.5..........14........29.9...35.0"...20.3"......12.0"...6.0"...5.7"...
2001-02..........41.5..........19........35.4.....3.5".....3.5".......3.0"...
2002-03..........31.2............7........25.9...49.3"...29.6".......6.0"...5.0"...5.3"...19.8"...4.0"...
2003-04..........32.4............1........22.5...42.6"...19.8".......14.0"...5.8"...5.7"...10.3"...
2004-05..........35.4............5........29.5...41.0"...20.2".......13.8"...5.0"...6.0"...7.7"...
2005-06..........37.3..........14........33.5...40.0"...28.9".......5.8"...26.9"...
2006-07..........36.5............8........25.8...12.4".....7.8".......5.5"...
2007-08..........36.4..........10........35.7...11.9".....9.0".......6.0"...
2008-09..........34.2............6........27.9...27.6"...13.3".......4.5"...4.3"...8.3"...
2009-10..........33.8..........13........31.6...51.4"...38.2".......10.9"...10.0"...5.0"...20.9"...

2010-11..........32.7............6.........28.1...61.9"...37.6"......20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"...
2011-12..........40.5..........13.........37.0.....7.4".....4.5"......4.3"...

2012-13..........36.9..........11.........31.5...26.1"...13.7"......4.7"...11.4"...

2013-14..........33.0............4.........28.5...57.4"...42.1"......5.0"...6.4"...11.5"...8.0"...4.0"...9.5"

2014-15..........31.7............2.........23.9...50.3"...22.6"......9.8"...5.3".....4.0"...4.8"...7.5"...4.5"

2015-16..........41.0...........-1.........34.4...32.8"...32.8"......27.5"

2016-17..........39.3...…....14...…....35.4...30.2"...11.0"......9.4"...7.6"...5.1"

2017-18..........36.2......…...5...…....27.1...40.9"...17.5"......9.8"...8.4"...4.6"...4.4"

2018-19...……..36.2.……...…2...…....30.8...20.5"...13.0"......6.4"...4.0"...5.0"

 

KNow what's sobering to me? THe last 30 winters includes 1990-91....where did the time go? Was it really 30 years ago when West Germany won the World Cup, against Argentina, with the best player in the world, Maradona?  And none of us knew because we didn't know what the World Cup was, or that the USA had played for the first time in 40 years, or that we were going to host in 94? And that those teams would be better than the one we have now? Was Silence of the Lambs that long ago, the first horror movie to win an Oscar for best picture? I'll say this, in 1990-91, we hadn't seen a snow storm of any consequence several years....which is why 94 was such a shock to the system. I just commented to my son after reading the winter outlook from NOAA, seems every year they are calling for above average in these parts....

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50 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

KNow what's sobering to me? THe last 30 winters includes 1990-91....where did the time go? Was it really 30 years ago when West Germany won the World Cup, against Argentina, with the best player in the world, Maradona?  And none of us knew because we didn't know what the World Cup was, or that the USA had played for the first time in 40 years, or that we were going to host in 94? And that those teams would be better than the one we have now? Was Silence of the Lambs that long ago, the first horror movie to win an Oscar for best picture? I'll say this, in 1990-91, we hadn't seen a snow storm of any consequence several years....which is why 94 was such a shock to the system. I just commented to my son after reading the winter outlook from NOAA, seems every year they are calling for above average in these parts....

Time flies we’re getting old! Remember the aol days, my family grew up middle class and I always pushed my brother and my father to buy a computer in the late 90’s, guess what? I only wanted the computer so I can go on weather.com... and look at weather info on cities around the world... oh man those were amazing times. 

Currently 49 and dropping!

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Nam came  way north with Nestor remains....namconus_apcpn_neus_18.thumb.png.0e3d99355d0a8afaeeec968aeed2cf36.png

Crazy NAM/GFS disagreement on this for something so close in. NAM has heavy rain making it well into PA and the Hudson Valley, GFS crushes it to where heavy rain doesn't make it north of the Delmarva. We should see fairly soon which is right-NAM develops a big blob of heavy rain into western NC, even east TN and north GA. GFS concentrates it onto the GA/Carolina coast and drags it east from there. 

NHC track is still pretty clear on it coming in near Panama City and bending NE to ENE out near Nags Head NC which is much more inline with the GFS. 

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2 hours ago, doncat said:

Nam came  way north with Nestor remains....namconus_apcpn_neus_18.thumb.png.0e3d99355d0a8afaeeec968aeed2cf36.png

 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Crazy NAM/GFS disagreement on this for something so close in. NAM has heavy rain making it well into PA and the Hudson Valley, GFS crushes it to where heavy rain doesn't make it north of the Delmarva. We should see fairly soon which is right-NAM develops a big blob of heavy rain into western NC, even east TN and north GA. GFS concentrates it onto the GA/Carolina coast and drags it east from there. 

NHC track is still pretty clear on it coming in near Panama City and bending NE to ENE out near Nags Head NC which is much more inline with the GFS. 

 

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

CMC also pretty far SE with the track and precip, if anything even further SE than the GFS. I know it's not a tropical model by any means but NAM definitely on its own. 

I highly doubt the NAM is going to score a coup but it has happened. I think the only way I would by the NAM solution is if the Euro or other model ensembles came onboard.

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48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Trend is very clear. I'd be pretty stunned if much makes it north of Cape May. NHC is also insistent on bending it E once it reaches NC. 

I agree. The forecast upper air pattern is not conducive to its coming north. It will likely make a sharp turn to the right. Whether that happens from eastern North Carolina or extreme southeast Virginia is still somewhat uncertain. The former is probably the more likely outcome.

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