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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's going to get colder after the brief warmup.

The last week of October will probably cool down if the weak  convection near the dateline verifies. That would actually be a more Niño-like pattern for a change.

Ventrice twitter freebie:

B122F2A7-6F24-4566-9E6F-E06DE16DB7D9.png.99e70529bfabab9cca00412d2eef1893.png

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last week of October will probably cool down if the weak  convection near the dateline verifies. That would actually be a more Niño-like pattern for a change.

Ventrice twitter freebie:

B122F2A7-6F24-4566-9E6F-E06DE16DB7D9.png.99e70529bfabab9cca00412d2eef1893.png

Looks like that would be MJO related. As the low frequency signal remains with the possible record breaking Indian Ocean dipole. I'm interested to see what happens after the fall with that. Being that the fall is climo peak for those events.

cwtRjiT.png

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Typical November pattern. Lots of screaming south easters followed by strong west winds. New Jersey surfers dream month.  

ALways when I have the week off in early Nov, I hope to get out and do some coastal fishing. In 30 years, the weather has been good maybe 3 times.....seriously. I'm thinking about going south this time, maybe Lake Marion in SC. 

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37 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Looks like that would be MJO related. As the low frequency signal remains with the possible record breaking Indian Ocean dipole. I'm interested to see what happens after the fall with that. Being that the fall is climo peak for those events.

 

It will probably be a wait and see how this near record IOD and other factors set the table for the winter.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will probably be a wait and see how this near record IOD and other factors set the table for the winter.

 

 

Yeah, I saw that tweet. I've been trying to figure out what those other 2 years were. I'm assuming 94-95 and the 97-98 strong el nino year based on the following chart.

zYgz2wO.gif

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22 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, I saw that tweet. I've been trying to figure out what those other 2 years were. I'm assuming 94-95 and the 97-98 strong el nino year based on the following chart.

zYgz2wO.gif

Yeah, 94-95 and 97-98. This time the other factors such as ENSO and NPM are much different. So we are looking at yet another new SST configuration in the Indio-Pacific.

A6FC49F2-2BA0-4FA7-B530-C36FD3323879.gif.8db2120fe2a046aceee5165b699f88bd.gif

582C9F00-D380-465C-B2CD-26D3F017E2BE.gif.1c0789182ff2fa2891c9c596af6f9d2f.gif

 

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The heaviest precipitation in several months appears likely for parts of the region tomorrow into Thursday. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall now appears likely. Some areas, especially on Long Island, will likely see even higher amounts.

The last time New York City received 1.00" or more rain in a day was August 22 when 1.01" fell. The last time New York City picked up 1.50" rain in a day was July 22 when 1.66" fell. The last time New York City received 2.00" or more rain in a day was August 11, 2018 when 2.90" fell.

Following the storm, cooler weather will give way to another round of warmer than normal temperatures.

The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions could linger into the first few days of November, but overall the cool shot will likely be transient in nature, not the start of a long-duration cold pattern.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -13.60 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.044.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

On October 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.285 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.333.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.5°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 78%.

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent on JAXA was 4.943 million square kilometers on October 14. That was the latest sub-5 million square kilometer extent on record. The previous latest date was October 13.

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32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

There should be some pretty dynamic and impressive stuff going on in the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and evening with the rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Going to be fun to watch. 

Haven't seen a regional QPF map like this for awhile. We'll see what verifies later tomorrow.

 

IMG_0188.PNG

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

There should be some pretty dynamic and impressive stuff going on in the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and evening with the rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Going to be fun to watch. 

I’m thinking one of those massive region wide flood advisory type deals with a 100 mile wide band of heavy rain. .5-1” an hour type rates in that band. But being that it’s narrow and fast moving it never gets to a full flood situation. In another couple of weeks this same scenario would be much higher impact with leaves clogging drains. 
looks like the best winds on the front side will miss us to the east, so maybe some 40mph gusts for the coast. On the back side everyone should see some gusts approaching 50.

 

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20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

To soon, I certainly don't want that yet. We all know what happens to our winters if we get snow to early.

It’s probably the GFS cold bias just overdoing things again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/

However, the memo noted that some cold bias remains in the model, which may still inflate snow amounts, mainly in forecasts three or more days into the future.

“The cold bias has been substantially reduced, but it is still there,” Gross said. “You get a cold bias, you can still get too much snow. That’s what we’re working on now and figuring out what to do.”
 

 

 

 

 

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