CIK62 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 The next 8 days are still averaging 59degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.5[62.3]. Should be near +3.1[61.1] by the 22nd. 60.0* here at 6am. GFS still going from near 80* to near 40* the 22nd. to the 27th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Gfs wants to turn the pattern cold towsrde the end of October into November. Hopefully we dont see any snow if that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 We need a good soaking. Been a rather dry fall. Thankfully spring and most of summer were wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: We need a good soaking. Been a rather dry fall. Thankfully spring and most of summer were wet. It will be interesting to see exactly where the remnant tropical energy from near Baja California phases with the closed low in the Great Lakes. The tropical input looks like why the models are so wet and deep with the low. Just need to pin down the exact track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs wants to turn the pattern cold towsrde the end of October into November. Hopefully we dont see any snow if that happens. huh you love snow dude why now you don't want snow? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: huh you love snow dude why now you don't want snow? Not this early man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 a bit out of range but the NAM is well offshore with the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 21 minutes ago, nycwinter said: huh you love snow dude why now you don't want snow? early snows are indicative of a crappy winter. Last year and 2011 are examples of winters with Oct/Early Nov snows that ended up crappy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: a bit out of range but the NAM is well offshore with the low But strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: early snows are indicative of a crappy winter. Last year and 2011 are examples of winters with Oct/Early Nov snows that ended up crappy I don't think there is alot of research about early snow and crappy winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I don't think there is alot of research about early snow and crappy winters. No, but it *feels* like when it happens, it's not great. (Yes, I know it's feeling and not data, but I think we can agree on that) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I tried to get out as much as I could the last 6 months and photograph storms around New York City. Here is a time lapse compilation I created. Most are shot around NYC but a few are from Long Island and Upstate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: a bit out of range but the NAM is well offshore with the low I buy this, it's a progressive pattern and the Euro has been far too slow/west lately...see TS Melissa. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I buy this, it's a progressive pattern and the Euro has been far too slow/west lately...see TS Melissa. GFS also progressive and east-an inch of rain for the area give or take but a quicker mover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 the gfs is always progressive and the nam is having trouble "deciding" which convective blob to focus the low on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 how can you go against the euro.... smh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, nycwinter said: how can you go against the euro.... smh... Same reason to go against it last week, know bias of east coast lows too far west. GFS crushed it last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: early snows are indicative of a crappy winter. Last year and 2011 are examples of winters with Oct/Early Nov snows that ended up crappy Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow..... 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Same reason to go against it last week, know bias of east coast lows too far west. GFS crushed it last week euro has crushed the gfs the last few months.. never go against the euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 How much rain do we get on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: How much rain do we get on the euro? 2 inches for most-jackpot of 3 over western/northern CT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Upton doesn’t seem to be on board with strong winds yet. I guess it all comes down to the exact track of the low. I’m expecting a high impact event with at least advisory level winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 The Euro is showing multiple lows like the NAM. We probably have to wait to see which one becomes strongest. That will determine the placement of strongest winds and heaviest rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The Euro is showing multiple lows like the NAM. We probably have to wait until tomorrow to see which one becomes strongest. That will determine the placement of strongest winds and heaviest. yeah that run is worthless in that regard there will not be 3 lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Pretty mild at 73°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 All the op models and the ensembles have a change towards colder weather as we end October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Under crystal clear skies and brilliant sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower 70s today. Even as the calendar has advanced deeper into autumn, the day had almost a late September feel to it. The Monarch migration remained well underway. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 59 minutes ago, Snow88 said: All the op models and the ensembles have a change towards colder weather as we end October. The nonstop Western troughiness stops temporarily. Halloween week could be on the cooler side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Much of the region experienced bright sunshine and readings in the 70s today. The heaviest precipitation in several months appears likely for parts of the region Wednesday into Thursday. For New York City, 84% of the EPS members show 1.00" or more precipitation; 71% show 1.50" or more precipitation; and, 41% show 2.00" or more. Therefore, a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall now appears likely. Some areas, especially on Long Island, will likely see even higher amounts. The last time New York City received 1.00" or more rain in a day was August 22 when 1.01" fell. The last time New York City picked up 1.50" rain in a day was July 22 when 1.66" fell. The last time New York City received 2.00" or more rain in a day was August 11, 2018 when 2.90" fell. Following the storm, cooler weather will give way to another round of warmer than normal temperatures. The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions could linger into the first days of November, but overall the cool shot will likely be transient in nature, not the start of a long-duration cold pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -5.74 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.654. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. On October 13, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.334 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.225. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently 59.2°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 74%. Finally, on account of very slow ice growth, Arctic sea ice extent for October 13 was a daily record low figure of 4.881 million square kilometers. There is a chance that today's figure will be the latest ever figure under 5 million square kilometers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now