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Hoosier

October 2019 General Discussion

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This would not be very October like to start.

USA_TMP_850mb_192.thumb.gif.32ac6b82bc618007b2359490e5559840.gif

I guess the good news if you like cooler weather is that there are only so many days in October that can look like this.  :P

 

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59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This would not be very October like to start.

USA_TMP_850mb_192.thumb.gif.32ac6b82bc618007b2359490e5559840.gif

I guess the good news if you like cooler weather is that there are only so many days in October that can look like this.  :P

 

:weenie:

gfs_T850a_us_41.png

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This would not be very October like to start.

USA_TMP_850mb_192.thumb.gif.32ac6b82bc618007b2359490e5559840.gif

I guess the good news if you like cooler weather is that there are only so many days in October that can look like this.  :P

 

I have to laugh. I was recently scanning the Mid-Atlantic forum and saw your post regarding the best place to live near DC if you want the most snow...i was going to say buffalo is not far away but one of their posters beat me to it! I will say this much, as a lifelong WNY resident of the burbs of Buffalo, getting the amount if lake effect we do is such a boost in the winter time IF you're a snow enthusiast like it appears you are. That forum, while very knowledgeable, is snarky and ready to jump off cliffs due to the lack of snowfall they receive. If you move their eventually do not expect good winters.

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

:weenie:

gfs_T850a_us_41.png

I would be cautious of the GFS, absolutely notorious for pattern breakdowns and too strong of cold shots this time of year. Even if it is right, it immediately warms right back up by the end of the run to ++ anomalies in the east.

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I wouldn't mind a roller coaster of temps if it  brings some nice deep fall lows and severe weather with them. It's been a very boring past couple months locally 

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I would be cautious of the GFS, absolutely notorious for pattern breakdowns and too strong of cold shots this time of year. Even if it is right, it immediately warms right back up by the end of the run to ++ anomalies in the east.

Remember though this is a new GFS then we had last fall. Support is definitely growing for a cold shot around this time although it would not surprise me if the GFS was over doing it at the very beginning of the cold season. Actually the most annoying thing about this new GFS is it's outrageous "urban heat island" anomalies around all the big cities which are completely unrealistic.  Definitely a kink that needs to be worked out.

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5 hours ago, Stebo said:

I would be cautious of the GFS, absolutely notorious for pattern breakdowns and too strong of cold shots this time of year. Even if it is right, it immediately warms right back up by the end of the run to ++ anomalies in the east.

I don't really cheer for cold until November, so definitely want this weather to continue for awhile. Didn't even realize I pasted the Operational, usually only stick to ENS in that range and even those are not too accurate.

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Record daily highs for IND are in jeopardy and the all-time October record may also be threatened on Tuesday.

INDY RECORD HIGHS: 
9/30: 89 (1971) 
10/1: 89 (1897) 
10/2: 89 (1953) 
OCTOBER: 91 (10/8/2007)
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44 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Record daily highs for IND are in jeopardy and the all-time October record may also be threatened on Tuesday.

INDY RECORD HIGHS: 
9/30: 89 (1971) 
10/1: 89 (1897) 
10/2: 89 (1953) 
OCTOBER: 91 (10/8/2007)

Remember 2007 fondly.

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There are some rumblings from some local TV mets in Louisville that the high temperature may hit 100 here Tuesday and Wednesday. It's never come close to reaching 100 degrees in Louisville in October (all-time October record is 93 degrees). Yikes. Scary stuff to put into perspective.

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Definitely think someone in the ohio valley is getting very close to, if not reaching, the century mark next Tuesday or Wednesday.  Highs are consistently over-performing...93 here today, and I think 95-97 is a definite possibility next week.

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1 hour ago, ovweather said:

There are some rumblings from some local TV mets in Louisville that the high temperature may hit 100 here Tuesday and Wednesday. It's never come close to reaching 100 degrees in Louisville in October (all-time October record is 93 degrees). Yikes. Scary stuff to put into perspective.

I don't know if it will get to 100 in Louisville, but it would be very impressive.  Mid/upper 90s are almost unheard of in the closing days of September and certainly in October.  There was a 99 on 9/29/1953.  The latest 100 degree temp in Louisville is September 14 (1897).

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Record daily highs for IND are in jeopardy and the all-time October record may also be threatened on Tuesday.
INDY RECORD HIGHS: 9/30: 89 (1971) 10/1: 89 (1897) 10/2: 89 (1953) OCTOBER: 91 (10/8/2007)


I’m surprised how “low” those records are.


.

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Looks like one more push of summer-like temps on Mon/Tue with mid to upper 80’s, before fall conditions quickly set in with highs in the 60’s/50’s beyond that as we push into October.


.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I don't know if it will get to 100 in Louisville, but it would be very impressive.  Mid/upper 90s are almost unheard of in the closing days of September and certainly in October.  There was a 99 on 9/29/1953.  The latest 100 degree temp in Louisville is September 14 (1897).

Euro has them close to 100, 96 and 97 on Tuesday/Wednesday.

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Here are the number of times that it has reached 95+ in Louisville by day.  As you can see, it becomes extremely uncommon in the final week of September and nonexistent in October.

 

Screenshot_20190929-123803.thumb.png.c45ed732df6647450cd60b4257cae755.png

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here are the number of times that it has reached 95+ in Louisville by day.  As you can see, it becomes extremely uncommon in the final week of September and nonexistent in October.

 

Screenshot_20190929-123803.thumb.png.c45ed732df6647450cd60b4257cae755.png

Thanks for posting that. Today and tomorrow will hit 95 as well. In fact, record highs 2 of the last 3 days (today's record of 99 won't be broken) and likely record highs the next 3 days. I think Louisville has set new record highs on 8 days this month and a couple of record high minimums. And of course this will be the driest September on record and also the driest month on record. So a historic, record breaking September of weather (or lack thereof) in the lower OV. October will start out record breaking, but the models seem to be pointing to much cooler and potentially wetter times ahead by the middle of October. Let's hope.

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If Detroit can stay above 68 Tuesday, that will be an all time record high minimum for the entire month of October. Current forecast low Monday night is 70. 

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20 hours ago, Stebo said:

If Detroit can stay above 68 Tuesday, that will be an all time record high minimum for the entire month of October. Current forecast low Monday night is 70. 

Yep, I think Detroit will stay above 68 overnight.  There could be some rain in the area during the evening of 10/1 to drop the temp lower before midnight...but hard to say right now.    

For ORD, the all-time record high minimum for October is 71, set on 10/1/1971 and 10/4/2005.  Just last year, the min was 70 on October 9th. 

Even more remarkable, the min was 70 on 10/21/1979.  I had to triple-check, but it looks accurate.  That is unbelievable.  The more I look at the numbers, Chicago can still experience some surprisingly warm temps in late October.  The record high on Halloween is 84, set in 1950...which is about 30 degrees above normal.

I think ORD may be 70+ tomorrow morning...but just like Detroit, it may rain during the evening of 10/1 to spoil it.   

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Yep, I think Detroit will stay above 68 overnight.  There could be some rain in the area during the evening of 10/1 to drop the temp lower before midnight...but hard to say right now.    

For ORD, the all-time record high minimum for October is 71, set on 10/1/1971 and 10/4/2005.  Just last year, the min was 70 on October 9th. 

Even more remarkable, the min was 70 on 10/21/1979.  I had to triple-check, but it looks accurate.  That is unbelievable.  The more I look at the numbers, Chicago can still experience some surprisingly warm temps in late October.  The record high on Halloween is 84, set in 1950...which is about 30 degrees above normal.

I think ORD may be 70+ tomorrow morning...but just like Detroit, it may rain during the evening of 10/1 to spoil it.   

You laid it out well.  I am pretty confident in ORD not dropping below the low 70s overnight tonight, but the big question is what happens Tuesday evening with storms/outflow.  If that holds off beyond midnight, then it's very possible that we are looking at that monthly record of 71 being broken.  Just have to wait and see and a couple hours either way could make or break it. 

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I'd like this to be a (positive) signal for the winter ahead. Ofc, October storms don't often work out that way, do they?  :lol:  

Who mentioned OH was overdue for a classic winter GOMEX bomb storm? 

 

20190930 Euro d10 Octo-bomb.gif

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The duration of that heat here has certainly lessened compared to what it looked like it would be, it's basically going to be one very warm sultry day tomorrow come up but it will definitely feel like July. So glad crisp autumn weather is right on its heels.

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5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I'd like this to be a (positive) signal for the winter ahead. Ofc, October storms don't often work out that way, do they?  :lol:  

Who mentioned OH was overdue for a classic winter GOMEX bomb storm? 

 

20190930 Euro d10 Octo-bomb.gif

That run of the Euro would be a godsend for the OV with widespread 2-5 inches of rain. A true drought buster, not to mention the chilly temps it would bring.

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20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You laid it out well.  I am pretty confident in ORD not dropping below the low 70s overnight tonight, but the big question is what happens Tuesday evening with storms/outflow.  If that holds off beyond midnight, then it's very possible that we are looking at that monthly record of 71 being broken.  Just have to wait and see and a couple hours either way could make or break it. 

Good call...ORD only dropped to 73 this morning, at least on the hourlies.

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At 1 pm, the temperature was 91° in Cleveland. That set a new October high temperature record. The previous monthly record was 90°, which was set on October 6, 1946.

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I think something is up with the ASOS at ORD.  The temp has dropped to 73 for no apparent reason.  Can't afford to have funny stuff on a day when they are going for a monthly record!

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think something is up with the ASOS at ORD.  The temp has dropped to 73 for no apparent reason.  Can't afford to have funny stuff on a day when they are going for a monthly record!

Yea...

ORD has been a bit of an odd-ball all summer temp wise, but it finally looks like the sensor is fully trashed now.

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