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WEATHER 53 Winter Outlook


WEATHER53
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11 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Yeah. Your outlook is interesting and no doubt could come to fruition. I do think we’ll see quite a bit of blocking this winter, so my warmth could be overdone. 

Your write up was so good. Technical enough for us and a more  general way of explaining also that public will understand.

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Right now think my analogs look very good into, and I think thru,December. Some good long rangers had mid Atlantic shifting mild again after 15-19Th Nov and I don’t see that, in fact the opposite.

i want to comment on our method of choosing specific occurrent weather from the March into Sept time frame of the year preceding the winter for the long range we issue in Sept. We have believed since 1980 that this period sets the tone for the winter. The trick is what occurrences do you emphasize the most or least. Also, we do not believe nor state that a, just as an example, very cool June followed by a very dry July and August CAUSES a cold but not very snowy winter but we do say that if 80% of the time since 1945 that was the winter outcome  then  that probably is the foundation of the outlook and we compare, or perhaps contrast, that with other events of the March-Sept time period to complete the outlook.

i know I am a distinct minority but I think all of the indexes are mainly alphabet soup, many just a decade or so in existence, largely unproven.  I think the pattern causes them and they not the pattern but what does cause the pattern  is still Gods mystery. Now, high pressure does have to be in the right place to deliver the cold so there are some requirements. I think the indexes are the seasoning on the meat but not the meat.

Any question please just ask.

 

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 months later...
On 10/3/2019 at 6:11 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change.

God damn this post was sooo good! :thumbsup:

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The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change.
Wow....
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23 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember?

I've been out on February for a long time. In most of the fall seasons that I found similar to 2019, the pattern generally persisted until March and then flipped. March has a chance but like I said last fall, I wouldn't be hanging my weenie hat on a one-in-a-million HECS save like 1942. Some paltry snow event that melts in an hour is more likely. I wanted to be reaped early on because getting some event in March isn't enough to save it for me (but might be enough to have me win the snowfall contest lol).

After I made that post in October, I became even more concerned with how dry November was- having precip less than 2" at BWI and DCA is one of the best leading indicators of an impending dumpster fire.

 

 

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On ‎9‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 2:30 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers

Dec: -2 to -3

Jan:-3 to -5

Feb :+2 to +4

Overall: -1 to -1.5

Snowfall

DCA:12-16”

Suburbs:15-20”

Analog years

1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19)

i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru  mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February.

Looking  forward to reading  other outlooks 

 

 

So far DCA was

DEC +2.4

JAN +6.5

Less than 1" of snow

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  • 3 weeks later...

My outlook was bad

got Feb temps right but missed Dec  and Jan and winter as a whole.

Had the right idea about less than average snow 

Think Matt and Isotherm did much better on temps but also think they had at or above average snowfall

Truth is I thought we would be cold for Dec thru mid/late Jan and then quite mild

We ended up being cold 30  days earlier, November into mid Dec.

i dont know if “wasting the cold” is valid or not but this has been a case for it.

 

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Think Matt and Isotherm did much better on temps but also think they had at or above average snowfall

Believe @Isotherm   went with below average seasonal snowfall, with any significant snowfall in late Feb and March. 

What about Kieth Allen 's forecast?  Thought he went super warm and little snow? 

 

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That is correct. Warmer than normal and below average snowfall. Here were the snowfall ranges from my outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region:

Baltimore, MD: 7-15”

Washington DC: 5-13”

Richmond, VA: 3-11”

It appears we may struggle to reach the low-end of my ranges for those locations. I do think there is a window for one event near the beginning of March +/- a few days.

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On 2/16/2020 at 6:38 PM, Isotherm said:

That is correct. Warmer than normal and below average snowfall. Here were the snowfall ranges from my outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region:

Baltimore, MD: 7-15”

Washington DC: 5-13”

Richmond, VA: 3-11”

It appears we may struggle to reach the low-end of my ranges for those locations. I do think there is a window for one event near the beginning of March +/- a few days.

Ok then even better once again 

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On 1/31/2020 at 12:32 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember?

march will be one for the record books, in terms of unusual cold and unusual deep snows for the Washington Metropolitan Region

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well it was s lousy outlook

Missed temps on 2 of 3 months and missed the overall. Each month is a 1x and the overall a 3x so I had only one element out of 6 correct

snowfall call average as had that at or below average snd it was well below average

 

Matt-what was yours again please?

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