Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest 2019


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • WxUSAF unlocked this topic

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/10/2019 at 8:57 PM, Roger Smith said:

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Croosposting from obs... outside the beltway threat for the 19th;

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus,
Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon,
Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville,
Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City,
Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon,
Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth,
Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg,
Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat,
Ruddle, and Sugar Grove
315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.


 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, arlwx said:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
 

 

Taking the over for 90% of the mentioned areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's.

DCA has done better relative to its average the last couple years while there has been more fluctuation at RIC. Actually, RIC has been running a 7-10 days later than average lately. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, arlwx said:

GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6.

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

On another forum one met claimed the GFS should not even be used.  Stated that by incorporating the GFS into your forecast for your clients it reduces your overall performance and accuracy. I know yesterday I posted about  verification against the Euro, but when I read that comment I was surprised.  Seems the general idea is the GFS  is extremely cold biased, reacts slowly to changes and  when you have time periods such as this where we are transitioning between seasons it does badly.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unfeatured this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...