weatherwiz Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 A rather significant s/w will be slowly pushing east through ME Tuesday afternoon. Associated with this s/w will be pretty impressive jet dynamics and a cold pool aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints will only be in the mid-to-upper 50's which will limit instability potential, however, the combination of temperatures into the lower 70's and steep mid-level lapse rates may result in 250-500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Given degree of shear/cold air aloft, scattered showers and t'storms should develop very early in the afternoon. The stronger cores will be capable of strong winds as cores collapse along with some hail...perhaps even a few large hailers. This will be predominately ME...maybe northern NH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Congrats up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Can't wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 GYX unimpressed so far, though they mentioned the (low) possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: GYX unimpressed so far, though they mentioned the (low) possibility. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 11 hours ago, dryslot said: Meh We might've meh'd our way to some damage in SW NH. High shear/low CAPE will get you every time. May not be widespread, but can't sleep on it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 I think things are on-track for today...perhaps a narrow corridor across south-central ME for a large hailer and/or damaging downburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 10 hours ago, OceanStWx said: We might've meh'd our way to some damage in SW NH. High shear/low CAPE will get you every time. May not be widespread, but can't sleep on it either. I think i meh'd my way to 0.0" overnight, Will have to check the stratus but the weather station tipper had nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 11 hours ago, OceanStWx said: We might've meh'd our way to some damage in SW NH. High shear/low CAPE will get you every time. May not be widespread, but can't sleep on it either. Impressive Tstorms here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 39 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think i meh'd my way to 0.0" overnight, Will have to check the stratus but the weather station tipper had nada. Ground zero was Temple to Palmyra - 8 cocorahs reports ranging 1.72" to 2.90", with 1.91" in 4 hours for my gauge. Next highest was 1.20" in the Penobscot Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 30 minutes ago, tamarack said: Ground zero was Temple to Palmyra - 8 cocorahs reports ranging 1.72" to 2.90", with 1.91" in 4 hours for my gauge. Next highest was 1.20" in the Penobscot Valley. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, tamarack said: Ground zero was Temple to Palmyra - 8 cocorahs reports ranging 1.72" to 2.90", with 1.91" in 4 hours for my gauge. Next highest was 1.20" in the Penobscot Valley. Saw that slug of precip on Radar last night in that area, Impressive but looks like we 7-10'd here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Saw that slug of precip on Radar last night in that area, Impressive but looks like we 7-10'd here. When I shut off the computer at 10 PM, it looked like the really good stuff would be just to our north. We'd had a couple of heavy showers but only 2-3 minutes each, at most 1/4" by that time. Brings the month's total to 2.63". 21-year average is 3.67", which I doubt happens, while the median of 2.98" (lowest for any month) might be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just now, tamarack said: When I shut off the computer at 10 PM, it looked like the really good stuff would be just to our north. We'd had a couple of heavy showers but only 2-3 minutes each, at most 1/4" by that time. Brings the month's total to 2.63". 21-year average is 3.67", which I doubt happens, while the median of 2.98" (lowest for any month) might be in play. I'm at 0.77" for the month and after a wet June-July, Aug and Sept are below normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 hours ago, dryslot said: I'm at 0.77" for the month and after a wet June-July, Aug and Sept are below normal here. LEW was reporting heavy rain at 2 PM. Getting dark here in Augusta with some nice though sparse C-G to the south. Warned for the towns just south of here, though it looks like the north fringe will clip us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 wow...5 1'' hail reports today in ME...not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 hours ago, tamarack said: LEW was reporting heavy rain at 2 PM. Getting dark here in Augusta with some nice though sparse C-G to the south. Warned for the towns just south of here, though it looks like the north fringe will clip us. Right at the time i was taking the cat to the vet, 0.22", 0.63/hr rate for a short period of time with that cell that blew up SE of here, 1 rumble, 1 LS, Thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Right at the time i was taking the cat to the vet, 0.22", 0.63/hr rate for a short period of time with that cell that blew up SE of here, 1 rumble, 1 LS, Thats about it. You sure that wasn’t a 0.63/year rate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 15 hours ago, dryslot said: Right at the time i was taking the cat to the vet, 0.22", 0.63/hr rate for a short period of time with that cell that blew up SE of here, 1 rumble, 1 LS, Thats about it. Only 0.20" yesterday afternoon, though Doppler estimate was much higher. However, we were right on the west edge of the heavier stuff, and at our distance from GYX the beam was hitting whatever was at 5-6000' over our heads. Saw Detroit (Maine) with 3.20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Just now, tamarack said: Only 0.20" yesterday afternoon, though Doppler estimate was much higher. However, we were right on the west edge of the heavier stuff, and at our distance from GYX the beam was hitting whatever was at 5-6000' over our heads. Saw Detroit (Maine) with 3.20". Have not missed to many showers this whole year so far but have missed the last few storms now, We don't want to start that streak heading into winter........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 There were 8 reports yesterday...including half-dollar size!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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