Hurricane Agnes Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 8 am interim (STILL CAT 2 and moving even faster - 32 mph) - Quote 008 WTNT33 KNHC 012350 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN AZORES AS LORENZO BARRELS FASTER TOWARD THE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 34.3W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 34.3 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 This is exactly why I never call a storm a fish. I was out surfing the Lorenzo swell today and it was incredibly powerful. 16 second swell periods are extremely rare on the east coast. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-search-missing-teens-rockaway-20191001-4zqaogxpdzhullj3n72tqq4mky-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 43 knots with gusts to 61 knots at the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 I've never seen the UK & Ireland in the cone before. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 1 hour ago, TriPol said: I've never seen the UK & Ireland in the cone before. WOW! 11pm cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 11pm cone In Manchester this week. Lorenzo heading right for me!Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 am & 5 am reports (as of 2 am, Lorenzo finally dropped to CAT 1) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 39A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HITTING THE WESTERN AZORES... ...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 31.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. Seek shelter immediately. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 31.3 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 60 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 85 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at the Santa Cruz Airport at Flores in the western Azores. A sustained wind of 50 mph (75 km/h) with a gust to 70 mph (110 km/h) was reported at Horta in the central Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continued within the hurricane warning area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020834 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.3N 29.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 29.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this morning. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning. Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020835 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed. Winds are now decreasing across those islands. The current intensity estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday. The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone is well underway. The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud pattern later today. The official forecast calls for a gradual weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the intensity guidance. Although the system is forecast to become extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday. After crossing England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe. Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the north Atlantic. Then, the cyclone is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus, but leans a bit toward the ECMWF forecast. Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 Key Messages: 1. Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later today. 2. Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 42.3N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 NHC must have updated their software, I remember in the past they were unable to plot forecast points east of the Prime Meridian. Prop-tropical cyclones affecting UK in particular is that not uncommon. Ophelia did just a couple of years ago (only 6-12 hours after being declared post-tropical actually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 8 am interim (still a CAT 1 and still tropical for now) - Quote 161 WTNT33 KNHC 021158 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 28.0W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria These warnings will likely be discontinued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). As Lorenzo passed near the western Azores earlier this morning, a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h) was reported on Corvo Island. A wind gust of 90 mph (145 km/h) was observed on Faial Island, and a gust to 88 mph (142 km/h) was reported on Flores Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this morning. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning. Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 NOAA Sats view of Lorenzo moving rapidly to the NE - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Energizer bunny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 11 am update and last advisory (the end is nye, Lorenzo is now post-tropical) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.4N 25.8W ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has discontinued all warnings for the Azores. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England on Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and England. Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met Office. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. $$ Forecaster Brown Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021436 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired frontal features. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds. The global models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland. A faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom. The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday. The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt, and this general motion should continue into Thursday. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow. The global model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is in closest to the ECMWF model. Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met Office. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Hurricane force winds measured at the Azores last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 NASA Hurricane's latest on post-tropical Lorenzo's rainfall - https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/2019/10/02/lorenzo-atlantic-ocean-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Thank you for your ongoing excellent coverage of the Atlantic storm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 A historical note - UK Met Office press release/forecast for Lorenzo - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/how-will-storm-lorenzo-affect-the-uk Quote How will Storm Lorenzo affect the UK? Author: Press Office 10:58 (UTC+1) on Wed 2 Oct 2019 Our partner Met Éireann named Storm Lorenzo on Wednesday morning, (the first named storm of the 2019/2020 season named after the hurricane it started as) issuing yellow and orange wind and rain warnings for the Republic of Ireland This low-pressure system is forecast to reach storm thresholds for the Republic of Ireland, but not elsewhere in the UK. Met Éireann’s Orange wind warning has been issued for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick. It runs from 18:00 on Thursday to 03:00 on Friday. Our partner has issued Yellow wind and rain warnings for the rest of the Republic of Ireland. The Met Office has issued a Yellow wind warning for parts of Northern Ireland from 15:00 to 22:00 on Thursday. A separate Yellow wind warning has been issued for Cornwall and most of Devon and coastal parts of south-west Wales. This warning runs from 04:00 to 16:00 on Friday. Storm Lorenzo will contain the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo, which has been moving north-east through the northern Atlantic passing close to the Azores. As Lorenzo continues to move north-east it will weaken quickly and the system is expected to transition from a hurricane to an ex-tropical storm during Wednesday. Storm Lorenzo, which will become a typical deep low-pressure system, will track across Ireland on Thursday bringing the strongest winds and heaviest rain to the Republic of Ireland. Andy Page is a Chief Meteorologist with the Met Office. He said: “By the time Storm Lorenzo reaches our latitudes it will be a low-pressure system that we're accustomed to seeing at this time of year, but our partner Met Éireann is expecting impacts from the strong winds and heavy rain to affect the Republic of Ireland. Across much of the rest of the UK we’re anticipating the impacts will be minimal, but we have issued yellow wind warnings for Northern Ireland and parts of south west England and south Wales.” Met Éireann issued a statement on Wednesday which included the comment that ‘Storm Lorenzo will continue to accelerate north-eastwards, with its centre approaching the west of Ireland during Thursday. Lorenzo will then likely make a right turn, tracking across Ireland on Thursday night whilst it begins to gradually weaken.’ Andy Page added: “At the moment the strongest winds are expected in western Ireland, with a risk of coastal gales developing in Northern Ireland on Thursday and south Wales and south-west England on Friday. Storm Lorenzo will also bring a spell of heavy rain to much of the UK mainly during Thursday night and the first half of Friday. “Our advice is to pay close attention to the weather forecast over the next couple of days and to keep an eye out for any weather warnings that may be issued in your area.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Still seeing MW data for Lorenzo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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