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WxWatcher007

Tropical Depression Imelda

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Looks like landfall is now?  I bolded the below saying its 0 miles S of Freeport, TX

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well at least we needn't fret about any further upgrades. Though unfortunately the HPC and NWS HGX have their work cut out for them.

Yeah this looks like a bad flash flooding event down there. The messaging has been good though the last few days so hopefully everyone stays safe. 

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This is one that people on the TX coast should be glad that it formed so close to land... These super small circulations in a moist atmosphere and with a relative lack of shear can really spin up quick. This thing went from an open trough to a TS in essentially 18 hours and is strengthening through LF. Big time rains coming onshore. Very interesting to watch. Seems, from land measurements, this thing may actually be stronger than 40 mph too. I wonder if frictional effects of land helped tighten the circulation?

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You can observe the vortex spinning up right as the disturbance->TD->TS nears the coastline. Unsure if frictional convergence had anything to do with assisting vort formation or organization was ramping up besides, however, it's a good thing this is moving inland now and didn't have another day over water. Though again, flooding is the main concern. Nice banding on the back side looks to really tap into the abundant OHC and a juiced atmosphere for heavy rainfall rates over the next 48 hrs.

 

9198f9fdb00f89fe08014945fb6e31f5.gif&key=b983b4c29c63a7a3dfb72e3a6d501b62101523be2c7d00862aff563e06d4142d

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is one that people on the TX coast should be glad that it formed so close to land... These super small circulations in a moist atmosphere and with a relative lack of shear can really spin up quick. This thing went from an open trough to a TS in essentially 18 hours and is strengthening through LF. Big time rains coming onshore. Very interesting to watch. Seems, from land measurements, this thing may actually be stronger than 40 mph too. I wonder if frictional effects of land helped tighten the circulation?

I think frictional convergence definitely helped with the LLC. It seems like even with the dry air nearby the overall environment was favorable. Things really spun up in the last 24 hours.

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It's also possible that the system could technically dissipate before midnight given that the system is weak to begin with and already moving inland. Have we ever had a storm that was classified and dissipated on the same day?  

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's also possible that the system could technically dissipate before midnight given that the system is weak to begin with and already moving inland. Have we ever had a storm that was classified and dissipated on the same day?  

No, but Pacific Tropical Storm Gil earlier this year was gone in under 48 hours

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There is a non-zero threat of some tornadic spinups coming in the Cameron-Port Arthur Area with some of those feeder bands beginning to move onshore, especially in peak heating conditions.

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It's also possible that the system could technically dissipate before midnight given that the system is weak to begin with and already moving inland. Have we ever had a storm that was classified and dissipated on the same day?  

The low is forecast to slow down and essentially drift north to NNW for 48 hours prior to finally lifting northward. It will be downgraded, but the surface low itself will likely remain pronounced enough due to adiabatic processes from daytime heating and latent heat flux from convergence off the GOM feeding into the system -- at least enough to do the deed of heavy rainfall. The slow moving surface low near the coastal region in that atmosphere was already enough to do that.
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1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

Nam for the win? Basically only model showing this development 

The NAM always shows development (the 3km anyway). Broken clock etc. etc.

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

The NAM always shows development (the 3km anyway). Broken clock etc. etc.

It was bound to happen if it shows the same thing every time, at least once it'll be right! Like people calling the NAM king after Michael last year lol

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Since I've been watching this system for days, I started capturing local WFO radar loops yesterday, mostly from CRP. Advised the ex yesterday to get ready for rain and storms, after our very extended drought, she just laughed and said 'no way', relying on the local teevee wxwhizzes.

The loop shown below, from 0101AM this morning, really woke me up; with buoy and coastal observations ATT something had begun cooking off.

At the time the NHC reports were describing the low as not having any circulation, etc., and a 0-20% chance of development. It clearly did show TC genesis then per the loop, while it was progged to move more NW'ly towards CRP-RKP; it since has moved NNE towards Matagorda-Freeport-HGX. 

 

CRP_loop.gif

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One thing about the system getting just strong enough for cyclogenesis and naming is that it will keep that name in all post-classification and remnant low products from the HPC/WPC. Which probably does help in more than just a personified entity for forecast discussions and reports but also better awareness by the public to take the flood threat seriously.

 

Edit: Not suggesting the public wouldn't have taken a potential flash flood threat seriously, especially considering their recent history, but the name will make it easier to identify and report regardless.

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16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It was bound to happen if it shows the same thing every time, at least once it'll be right! Like people calling the NAM king after Michael last year lol

And then imagine a 6-hr or less lived tropical storm be retired for dumping 20” on  a massive populated area... 

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Landfall... TS Imelda, the twelve-hour wonder [0101AM to 0130PM CDT].

Still a severe threat with 15-20" rainfall, with one quarter to a third the rainfall of Hurricane Harvey two years ago. Be lucky to get a trace over here, but the Galveston-Houston area northward are going to get soaked.

"

000
WTNT61 KNHC 171827
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND...

NOAA Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that
Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas at
100 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas reported
a minimum pressure near 1005 mb (29.68 inches) around the time of
landfall.

SUMMARY OF 130 PM CDT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown"

 

 

CRP_loop.gif

CRP_loop (5).gif

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

You can also see how the upper level anti-cyclone developed overhead once the system got into the Western Gulf. Pretty amazing loop.

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Looks like there was also a one-day named storm with Gert on July 24, 2005 (made landfall in Veracruz Mexico on same calendar date in CDT as name assigned). I found more than half a dozen two-day storms since 1978. 

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This is one that people on the TX coast should be glad that it formed so close to land... These super small circulations in a moist atmosphere and with a relative lack of shear can really spin up quick. This thing went from an open trough to a TS in essentially 18 hours and is strengthening through LF. Big time rains coming onshore. Very interesting to watch. Seems, from land measurements, this thing may actually be stronger than 40 mph too. I wonder if frictional effects of land helped tighten the circulation?


+1! Imelda has a classic look now.


.

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My question is, was it truly still a TD when they classified it as such, and strengthened in the next 45 minutes? or was it truly a TS, in the next 45 minutes they did there research and found that it was? Or was it kinda borderline either way?

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