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Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate


yoda
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8 pm update (not much change) -

Quote

284 
WTNT35 KNHC 202345
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
800 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

 

234700_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Jerry just hit the jackpot. The upper ridge is building right over it while it slides under a region of decreasing/negligible shear.5c1c6f26a9088a4c2a28e6a1ef36d740.gif&key=65838214e91dae489e87adcd42e9d03ed1329774d4df0d50aad7f4d1516eef37

 

 

Lets see how the track responds.  That UL ridging has been tight and strong just to his E/SE.  It's expanded over the last 24 hours.  It's not uncommon for weaker storms to slip under these like a mouse dashing for cover. 

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7 pages for this fish :maprain:
Ah hell, it's the tracking and analyzing any MDR system that's interesting when it comes to the slightest threat to land. Additionally there remains a window that Jerry could reintensify. Also Bermuda could still be impacted, which they just got a punch in the face from Humberto, so it remains worth watching.
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As of the 2 am update.... Well Jerry blew off his top like a volcano and is now down to a TS & looks like it will take longer before the theoretical reintensification (also including the latest 5 am) -

Quote

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 63.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
Quote

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

 

085634_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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11 am update (not much change but core is getting weaker) -

Quote

000
WTNT35 KNHC 211452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Also interesting that the track has changed very little.  Still on target to hit Bermuda.

145450_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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