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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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Some pictures from the house in Maggie Valley this morning. It started snowing Sunday night and light snow continued throughout yesterday until 9 AM this morning. Impressive event for this area that was not predicted by anyone!

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1 hour ago, cold air aloft said:

Maggie Valley usually doesn't do well with a pure NW flow event, but this event seemed to have more of a due north to south orientation which helped us to cash in. Nice to finally have it look and feel like Winter.

True about north to south, the radar showed that because normally Buncombe County will get a dusting to an inch in a NW flow but looking at it last night it was north to south. :snowwindow:

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4 hours ago, Buckethead said:

Yeah, I misspoke. It stopped at my office, which is 3 miles from my house at the rear entrance to the neighborhood. It's still snowing pretty good up at the house, which is about half a mile from the state line.

It's almost clear down here...weird...

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Saw your video on the WLOS noon news; very nice:clap:

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22 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Really? Lol. I bet they talked over it...the silence was the best part.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

It had pretty decent amount of air time; they looped  your video 2 or 3 times but yes, they did not give it the peaceful silence it called for ;)

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49 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You know the models dont look that bad. Im kind of excited about the next few weeks.

To be honest it seems like an average/seasonal temp pattern with storm opportunities. That produces way more often than when an Arctic outbreak occurs. I’m right there with you. 

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We're close...to something around February 1st. Lack of cold air could be a killer if the storm comes back NW. But honestly it's all we have besides potentially some wrap around NWFS this weekend. As for the 45 day forecast...that's a 45 day forecast that takes us to the middle of march? I'm not promised at all by that. but guess it's better than what we have now...

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27 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Decent look on the storm for next weekend. I'll hold onto it for now, haha. 

Definitely worth watching.  Its gonna be a thread the needle type of event. Hopefully something finally breaks our way!

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Euro looks ok...overall I think as of now it is the best look. But were still in that 8-11 day range so until we get closer I'm keeping my hype at a 0.

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Euro looks ok...overall I think as of now it is the best look. But were still in that 8-11 day range so until we get closer I'm keeping my hype at a 0.

Im still very interested in this weekend with the cold crashing in with a nice upslope look to the models. Next weekend is nice but meh currently. 

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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Im still very interested in this weekend with the cold crashing in with a nice upslope look to the models. Next weekend is nice but meh currently. 

I'm not very optimistic on this weekend yet. To me the orientation of it doesnt seem to be the greatest this far south. That can of course change but further north I think will be a better spot to get some good action. And though the NAM is in long range territory still, it looks dry from what I can see.

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Latest NAM seemed to have a much better orientation as far as precipitation goes. It extended further south and appeared to still be doing well at hour 84. It is the long rane nam, but I would imagine that would be a trend we want to see more of.

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Was worried we were losing the NW flow event this weekend but GSP seems to be leaving the door open.  

While it looks to be a relatively prolonged period of NW
flow snow, the guidance doesn`t agree on if the snowfall amounts
will be significant. The wind speeds and directions and the CAA are
good but not great. However, there area multiple short waves
dropping through the flow across the area and weak low level
instability which are favorable. Keep low PoP across the usual areas
through the period and will have to keep an eye on the situation for
any potentially significant snowfall.
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1 hour ago, Phelps said:

Was worried we were losing the NW flow event this weekend but GSP seems to be leaving the door open.  

While it looks to be a relatively prolonged period of NW
flow snow, the guidance doesn`t agree on if the snowfall amounts
will be significant. The wind speeds and directions and the CAA are
good but not great. However, there area multiple short waves
dropping through the flow across the area and weak low level
instability which are favorable. Keep low PoP across the usual areas
through the period and will have to keep an eye on the situation for
any potentially significant snowfall.

Good catch in the discussion. 

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An interesting look going into Monday on both the ICON and GFS. Noticed several Euro ensemble members show that wave blossoming that moves in behind the NWF as well.

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14 minutes ago, Hvward said:

An interesting look going into Monday on both the ICON and GFS. Noticed several Euro ensemble members show that wave blossoming that moves in behind the NWF as well.

looks a bit different, but add the CMC as well. I'm more excited by that than the upslope "event" this weekend.

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I guess its something but still a long shot 

 

Not a far as one may think. These waves have developed before on the tail end of a cold front for nice surprise events here in WNC. It’s easy to say snow is a long shot, and you won’t be wrong in most cases. ..But I still enjoy discussing the upcoming pattern and diving into the details.

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Not a far as one may think. These waves have developed before on the tail end of a cold front for nice surprise events here in WNC. It’s easy to say snow is a long shot, and you won’t be wrong in most cases. ..But I still enjoy discussing the upcoming pattern and diving into the details.
I'm pretty optimistic about the next 10 days man! Thanks for your input, as always.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Hvward said:

 

Not a far as one may think. These waves have developed before on the tail end of a cold front for nice surprise events here in WNC. It’s easy to say snow is a long shot, and you won’t be wrong in most cases. ..But I still enjoy discussing the upcoming pattern and diving into the details.

This is what I was talking about earlier in the week about the pulses of energy rotating in. Good stuff Ward!

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