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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.


Tyler Penland
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I’d say we had the best snow event of the season here in Boone last night/this morning. About 1.5” but it dumped pretty hard this morning around 7:30am. Once the sun came out it cut right through all of it though. The roads were clear and dry within a few hours of the snow stopping. The sun and dry air are an incredible combo.

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Looks like GSP is in the process of a big update in the forecast. My hourly forecast shows 6.5" of snow now through Saturday, up from 1-3" earlier.

Up to 36.25" this season now.  Within 10" of last season's total.8375250436402008c52fb7a26666f970.jpg&key=d3486843488d67b32e7f3ef4131ae42488b72a9919bb5f180f4c6ba55477fae2

 

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
250 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches,
  with peaks above 5000 feet seeing up to 6-8 inches.

* WHERE...Mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.
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7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Not a bad forecast at all. Not impressed by the 18z NAM run but everything looks to be game on from here on out.

Is the 32km better in these situations than the finer grid versions?  I always thought the 3km and 12km would handle these situations better with variations in topography and their finer resolution, and I take of mean of what all three show...but I could be wrong...and if I am I'd like to know! 

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10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
250 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches,
  with peaks above 5000 feet seeing up to 6-8 inches.
.
* WHERE...Mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.

was hoping Buncombe would get in on that, this morning definitely over performed, a nice surprise.  schools were even out.  so much for not really going to get any this morning,  :snowwindow:

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4 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Is the 32km better in these situations than the finer grid versions?  I always thought the 3km and 12km would handle these situations better with variations in topography and their finer resolution, and I take of mean of what all three show...but I could be wrong...and if I am I'd like to know! 

You know with these type of events and the topography of our landscape it is really hard to nail down these localized type events. For the most part I do like you are talking about. Take a mean average of the models and go from there.  The problem is that the NWF can do wonders enhancing the flow and really dumping in certain areas especially all the micro climates we have and throw in drastic changes in elevation in a short range then it makes things that much harder. Thats why the NWS kind of broad brushes us with there forecast.  Its just too complex to nail down just one site at a time especially with specific wind trajectories,  which can make the difference from me getting 4 inches to just 1 inch. Upslope snow here is one that is ever changing during the event and can be a real pain to forecast not to mention looking at the layers of the atmosphere to figure out just how much moisture is there to really get the flow going or not going. 

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From GSP...

.........We hesitate to call it NW Flow because the flow has a much
more westerly component to it..... 

This is not good for my mountain. Usually cuts my totals quite a bit. But you North Georgia and Upstate peeps get some love...

........Some of the guidance is showing
the potential for something more across northeast GA and the western
Upstate (again!), to the left of the track of a vort center dropping
down through the upper trof early Saturday morning......
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1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

From GSP...


.........We hesitate to call it NW Flow because the flow has a much
more westerly component to it..... 

This is not good for my mountain. Usually cuts my totals quite a bit. But you North Georgia and Upstate peeps get some love...


........Some of the guidance is showing
the potential for something more across northeast GA and the western
Upstate (again!), to the left of the track of a vort center dropping
down through the upper trof early Saturday morning......

They basically said the same thing for last night's nwf too.  Hold out hope, Joe!

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Just now, MotoWeatherman said:

If the 18z GFS is remotely right on the new QPF to come, the blue area is 5+ inches of NEW snow.  Coming in 2 rounds Friday AM and the Friday night.  Enjoy everyone.   This isnt a model snow map but straight QPF. 

gfs-deterministic-charlotte-total_precip_inch-2995600.png

Looks pretty dang good to me.

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7 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

If the 18z GFS is remotely right on the new QPF to come, the blue area is 5+ inches of NEW snow.  Coming in 2 rounds Friday AM and the Friday night.  Enjoy everyone.   This isnt a model snow map but straight QPF. 

gfs-deterministic-charlotte-total_precip_inch-2995600.png

Or maybe more depending on ratio. That snow last night had to be 15 to 20/1.

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