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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.


Tyler Penland
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1 hour ago, Hvward said:

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

I hope your correct, maybe our best set-up this season and as usual its trying its best to turn in to nothing, boy threading the needle isn't the word for it. 

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2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

With the way the rain system has trended north in the past 24 hours for tomorrow and Wednesday, this thing is right where the mtns and foothills want it. 

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12 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

I am going to heed your own advice from yesterday: Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.

We've been here and time and time again and more times than not will the precipitation field trend further north than is currently being shown.

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I am going to heed your own advice from yesterday: Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.
We've been here and time and time again and more times than not will the precipitation field trend further north than is currently being shown.


Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent.
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4 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent.

 

Yeah and the crazy thing is that all the indicies are in the wrong direction. 

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