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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.


Tyler Penland
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Crazy thing this morning, there’s a stripe of snow/ice in a band that looks to be running in the  4000-5000’ elevation range on both sides of 74 from the gap to Hazelwood (plott balsams one one side, great balsams on the other).  Starts just above Nothing below or above that band.  

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Appalachian Trail Over Hump, Big Yellow and Roan Mountains Balds in December 2019

Absolutely fantastic 1 hour video and rendering of the experience of being in the AT with snow cover and above the clouds.  
 

Few are blessed to experience this in summer and even fewer in winter.

It is truly the best the NC High Country has to offer.   Heaven at its best.
 

Kudos to the fellow who put this together

Enjoy

 

 

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Appalachian Trail Over Hump, Big Yellow and Roan Mountains Balds in December 2019
Absolutely fantastic 1 hour video and rendering of the experience of being in the AT with snow cover and above the clouds.  
 
Few are blessed to experience this in summer and even fewer in winter.
It is truly the best the NC High Country has to offer.   Heaven at its best.
 
Kudos to the fellow who put this together
Enjoy
 
 
I feel lucky to live on Big Bald because I get to see this stuff so often. So, so drastically different from living south of Columbia and in Northern Texas before that. 52091360e348ff7355e4607672003ec9.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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Took a advantage of the beautiful weather and fished Fontana for a few hours this afternoon, second February in a row where it’s way up for the time of year.  Only 17’ below full pond.  Low 50’s for water temps, never thought I’d be catching fish shallow in the back of a creek in mid-February up here like it’s pre-spawn.  Such is this winter.

F52F43AD-BF06-4AFD-B8C9-3556AF75ECEE.thumb.jpeg.6612d883ea8cae61441750cd5f0bb6b2.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Remember that time the NAVGEM nailed a winter storm from 4 days out that others weren’t really showing? Yep that was the overrunning event of Dec 10th, 2017.

I searched for snowfall maps from that event but only came up with badly pixelated maps.  It looks like most of WNC picked up half a foot from that with Mt. Mitchell picking up 25". 

You have grabbed my attention, Hunter. 

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33 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I searched for snowfall maps from that event but only came up with badly pixelated maps.  It looks like most of WNC picked up half a foot from that with Mt. Mitchell picking up 25". 

You have grabbed my attention, Hunter. 

Most areas received 10-12" in that storm

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3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I searched for snowfall maps from that event but only came up with badly pixelated maps.  It looks like most of WNC picked up half a foot from that with Mt. Mitchell picking up 25". 

You have grabbed my attention, Hunter. 

Yeah as Franklin mentioned that was a great storm for about all the mountains.  Most picked up a foot to about a foot and a half then it got cold and snowed again two days later. The snow stayed around for about 2 weeks.

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From the pics I've seen 2017 was pretty great here in the N GA mountains also. I was unfortunately in Athens that day with a 34 degree rain so I missed it. Is the tilt and alignment of the trough next week at all similar to that setup or was it much less positively tilted? 

 A bit less of a positive tilt to the trough in 2017, also a much less expansive high. Models showed much less moisture leading up to the event but the GFS and Euro caught on within 36 hours. NAM had the storm pretty well but wavered with it some. Not exactly sure what to think with the less positive tilt to this look, but still thinking the precip shield expands north with more qpf. Reading back through the Mountain thread of 2017 and at one point in time we had the JMA, NAVGEM, & ICON? I think vs. the GFS, Euro, UKMET. Was a wild event to forecast.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Euro with a huge northern shift with the precip. This storm should now have all of our attention.

I've felt like for days that the models were poorly handling the precip shield. If it's anything like every other system that's passed through during the last year, it'll overachieve on qpf and cover a lot of ground. Time will tell. 

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6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

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18 minutes ago, Hvward said:

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

What are your thoughts on the thermal profiles? 

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ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it.

High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. 

Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never!

:ski:

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9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it.

High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. 

Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never!

:ski:

All the pieces are there, this will be fun to nail down the specifics. What are your thoughts on orographic uplifting along the southern escarpment? I've seen @Rainforrest cash in with setups like this.

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