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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.


Tyler Penland
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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I remember when they made this graphic they took a lot of flack. This is an edited version of the original. The original omitted a couple seasons of data including big winters of 1988 and another so the totals are lower than expected for some still. My 30 year average in Marion is around 10 inches not 6.6. 

Ah gotcha! I remember it floating around so I went and found it.  It was from ‘88 to 18’ wasn’t it?

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Just now, WxKnurd said:

Ah gotcha! I remember it floating around so I went and found it.  It was from ‘88 to 18’ wasn’t it?

Yes I believe so. Originally it had my 30 year average at 3.3 which was not even close. I called them out on it and they admitted they were missing snowfall data for a couple years and remade it.

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11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I remember when they made this graphic they took a lot of flack. This is an edited version of the original. The original omitted a couple seasons of data including big winters of 1988 and another so the totals are lower than expected for some still. My 30 year average in Marion is around 10 inches not 6.6. 

No way Asheville gets more than waynesville or Highlands. 

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So if we have NWS or CoCoRaHS stations with missing data how is it even possible to have a verified annual precipitation total for a given location? We can all sit here and say “well I got 6” in this storm and 8” in that one” til we are blue in the face but unless you are keeping accurate records of every event for all precipitation types then it’s all just a best, educated guess anyway. Sorry, it’s the engineer in me lol.

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8 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

So if we have NWS or CoCoRaHS stations with missing data how is it even possible to have a verified annual precipitation total for a given location? We can all sit here and say “well I got 6” in this storm and 8” in that one” til we are blue in the face but unless you are keeping accurate records of every event for all precipitation types then it’s all just a best, educated guess anyway. Sorry, it’s the engineer in me lol.

The biggest issue with the mountains is all the micro climates we have. There can be huge variations in snowfall,  rainfall, temps ect, ect, in just a mile difference.  

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10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The biggest issue with the mountains is all the micro climates we have. There can be huge variations in snowfall,  rainfall, temps ect, ect, in just a mile difference.  

Yea we have a unique climate for sure! That’s why I love our area.

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While the Euro may have been a whiff, the EPS is still fairly aggressive for the weekend. 
 

What is the best EPS chart to look at that would translate to a similar look for Maggie valley? I’ve just been choosing Asheville, but I’d imagine they’d do better then Asheville being at a higher elevation. 

7C3E1623-6369-4131-8011-CEABC055C6AC.png

8286302F-922C-4D38-8347-5322B020EB99.png

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gut feeling based on what I'm seeing. Need what appears to be two pieces of energy in the gulf to combine and rapidly intensify and have the system "produce its own cold air". GFS is yet again too warm as it's passing by, and we don't have another cold source to tap.

 

Freezing temperatures aren't even found until you go halfway into West Virginia. That's not gonna do it.

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gut feeling based on what I'm seeing. Need what appears to be two pieces of energy in the gulf to combine and rapidly intensify and have the system "produce its own cold air". GFS is yet again too warm as it's passing by, and we don't have another cold source to tap.
 
Freezing temperatures aren't even found until you go halfway into West Virginia. That's not gonna do it.


Dynamic cooling occurring, could be our only hope.
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33 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

I feel like the 12z Euro was a nice step in the right direction. 

87D9FF78-8DB3-43B2-A987-257ED0E642FA.png

sortof yes. the storm mentioned still is way too far to the east and we actually don't get a drop of precip from it I don't believe unless I missed a frame. But the LP center did come west quite a good margin on this run, which is helping to funnel winds in from the NW and with whatever moisture is left is sparking some NWFS is the wake of the storm. Still a mile to go, but that is progress.

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3 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

I am just hoping the latest Euro was correct and the earlier CMC was on to something. Clearly seems to be several different options on the table, but I am nervous about the situation. I'm not giving up just yet.

Might be time to put all of our eggs in that trailing ULL basket..Need that flow out of the NW after the rain

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37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah , we get our best snows at 45-50 degrees!:pepsi:

Ducks on the pond! CJ going with a mountain r/s mix on Saturday/Sunday.. even with models being a disaster for the mountains today..this one ain’t over..You have to smell the rain down in the valley before you accumulate on top of the mountain  :loon:

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