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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.


Tyler Penland
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11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its had a few snowy solutions that have been wrong. Checkout the changes at 500mb on the last few runs at day 5.

Yea it looks like we are about to enter a more volatile than normal pattern with lots of energy around and the models are having trouble latching onto storm placement, and which pieces of energy get going. 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Yea it looks like we are about to enter a more volatile than normal pattern with lots of energy around and the models are having trouble latching onto storm placement, and which pieces of energy get going. 

Yeah, Lots of energy dropping in from the Pacific. The good news is they might all pass south of us. Hopefully we are just cold enough for some paste bombs!

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25 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

I’m beginning to become intrigued by the Monday system. The models have been trending fairly good for us. I know it’s the 84hr Nam but it would probably be a 2-4 inch event for the southern and central mountains. It’ll be interesting to see what the models look like by tomorrow evening.

Tonight’s NAM and RGEM got me pretty excited as well. 

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1 hour ago, Sw NC weather said:

Wow was you right, I don’t have any access to maps but there’s some in the mid to long range forum. Hint hint it’s a blizzard.

Almost a perfectly timed phase for us. Unfortunately it probably just gave us our best solution.  5 hours from now it will change.  Hopefully not.

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prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Upper atmosphere is completely different, and surface is completely different. If it was even remotely similar I would give more stock to the latest 0z Euro. Today's 12z will probably be horrendous compared to the 0z, but even if it's closer than yesterdays 12z run is to the latest 0z, I'll consider it a win. (top pic is yesterdays 12z, bottom is this mornings 0z)

 

Edit: Reason I bring this particular part up, is were roughly 9 days away or so, although surface features are expected to be different, upper air features should start to somewhat sync up, which hasn't happened yet on the Euro.

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Phased too soon. Give it 6 hours it will change.  Its 8-9 days away 

 

Yeah this one will be tricky, but as of now I like model trends. Will be interesting to see if the Euro shows some consistency in the long range but that’s a crap shoot. 0z euro shows a little bit of snow shower activity on Monday am as well, similar to what other models have been advertising. I think we have 3 chances to see snowflakes over the next 10 days.

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