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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Humberto

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50 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

What happened in 38?

Mother Nature created  Shinnecock Inlet when Long Island got in the way, on her way to Connecticut. As always ....

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It almost has a 38 feel with the squeeze play between the two highs. (Obviously I’m not calling for a 38 redux) 

Carol was probably the better example ; the euro has a look more similar to that. 

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The TS Watch that was in effect for the east coast of Florida has been discontinued as of the 11pm advisory... track has it approaching Bermuda as a Cat 1 hurricane by late next Wednesday 

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Cat 1 seems incredibly conservative. They did the same thing with Dorian. Seems they no longer even try to forecast intensity. I don't blame them.

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3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Cat 1 seems incredibly conservative. They did the same thing with Dorian. Seems they no longer even try to forecast intensity. I don't blame them.

Intensity is the least predictable of all...believe it or not!???

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Here we go (fish storm for now) -

Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 140841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO NOW EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

 

084443_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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8 am update (Humberto pressure lowering a touch) -

Quote
852 
WTNT34 KNHC 141143
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO PASSING JUST EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
...MOST THE HEAVY SQUALLS ARE OCCURING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

 

114447_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Seems like a good consensus so far (at least for the 6z runs) that this is going OTS -

spaghetti-models-09L_tracks_06z-09142019.png

I think this ends up ots . There isnt anything to pull this to the coast.

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I think this ends up ots . There isnt anything to pull this to the coast.

Probably although as of the 11 am update that just issued, it just stopped in place (and winds picked up) -

Quote
187 
WTNT34 KNHC 141448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING...
...HUMBERTO HAS BARELY MOVED THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

That thing needs to move away from the Bahamas and not sit there and spin.

145105_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.truecolor.20190914.150121-over-truecolor-09142019.gif

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2 pm update (started moving again) -

Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141734
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Plus 12z spaghetti still OTS...

173526_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

spaghetti-models-09L_tracks_12z-09142019.png

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Some eps members still turn Humberto towards the coast  and then north from there.

 

Slim chance though

 

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17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Some eps members still turn Humberto towards the coast  and then north from there.

 

Slim chance though

 

If I'm looking at the right thing, seems a little pile of members are hitting the coast (or even going into the GOM) before heading back to the east!

eps-ensembles-us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2019091412_35_481_humberto-240-12z-09142019.png

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5 pm update (holding pressure and sustained winds but has shifted a little to the NNW) -

Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 142036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 77.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

 

203920_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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I count nearly half of the EPS members showing some sort of retrograde motion, as opposed to going straight out sea, on the 12z ECMWF Ensembles.  Quite a bit more than what was shown on the 00z ECMWF Ensembles.

leyTNlJ.gif

Something to watch out for. This was how we got our first sign that Dorian would miss Florida. 

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Gfs and now the cmc are slowing down the storm so the ridge builds on top.

 

Cmc might show a mid Atlantic hit on this run

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

0z ECMWF still too close for comfort with a major hurricane impact over Bermuda.

I'm inclined to believe the intensity forecasts from the HWRF and HMON are overdone. The storm seems to getting quite the ET push as it approaches and passes Bermuda. There's considerable asymmetry showing up in the thickness fields on the cyclone phase space. It be more inclined to believe in a larger Cat 1/2 as opposed to a major due to the degree of ET transition going on. SHIPS shear guidance shows windshear of 25 KT or so at 48 hours increasing to 40 KT at 84 hours (on Bermuda approach) to 60 KT at 96 hours (after its passed Bermuda). 

                   * ATLANTIC     2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HUMBERTO    AL092019  09/15/19  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    50    52    55    58    60    64    69    73    75    77    73    73    57
V (KT) LAND       50    52    55    58    60    64    69    73    75    77    73    73    57
V (KT) LGEM       50    53    56    59    62    67    72    76    77    78    73    61    45
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        16    11    12    16    19    16    24    25    36    39    61    64    49
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -4    -6    -2    -1    -5     0     0    -1     1     2     3     0
SHEAR DIR        276   272   254   256   261   240   236   226   223   213   221   218   228
SST (C)         28.1  28.1  28.3  28.4  28.3  28.1  28.3  28.1  28.9  29.0  28.1  27.7  26.5
POT. INT. (KT)   136   136   138   139   138   136   140   138   151   154   140   135   121
ADJ. POT. INT.   116   115   115   115   115   115   118   118   132   136   124   118   105
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C)   0.9   0.5   0.4   0.5   0.8   0.8   1.1   1.0   1.1   1.0   1.7   1.6   1.3
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     9     9     8     8     8     8     6     5     4     2     0
700-500 MB RH     55    58    60    61    56    56    50    50    44    44    45    46    45
MODEL VTX (KT)    17    17    19    20    20    21    25    27    29    32    35    41    34
850 MB ENV VOR    -5    -3    10     9   -19     6     6    42    74   108    89    67    -6
200 MB DIV        30    18    35    42    27    21    23    52    36    74    34    71    29
700-850 TADV       8     6     4     2     4     0    -1    -6   -15   -42   -53   -53    -8
LAND (KM)        270   275   269   291   316   421   471   517   655   857  1047   967   850
LAT (DEG N)     28.0  28.5  29.0  29.3  29.6  30.2  30.6  31.0  31.5  32.4  33.8  35.7  38.1
LONG(DEG W)     77.6  77.8  77.9  77.8  77.6  76.5  75.0  73.3  70.6  67.4  63.9  60.5  57.4
STM SPEED (KT)     5     5     4     3     4     6     8     9    13    15    16    17    17
HEAT CONTENT      35    41    46    47    42    30    25    17    28    32    17    12     3

 

 

 

 

hmon_mslp_wind_09L_32.png

gfs_z500aNorm_atl_19.png

18.phase1.png

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11 pm (9/14/19) & 5 am (9/15/19) updates (has strengthened and speeded up a bit and the thinking is that it will become a hurricane either today or tomorrow) -

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 150855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

085723_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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11 am update (now, wind speed increasing, moving N, and pressure continues to drop).  At some point it's supposed to get swept up and make a sharp right turn -

Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 151452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

 

145525_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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19 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Interests in Bermuda are going to have to keep a close eye on this one me thinks.

The 12z Euro is running. I can't stress how important this run is and especially tonight's 0z. It's about 50 to 75 miles off from a significant hysteresis deviation in track. IE a tipping point in the model. I love this stuff. Typhoon Tip could explain it better. This is his wheelhouse.

So far there's no telling what will happen statistically as climatology does not argue for a sharp recurve.

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1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

The 12z Euro is running. I can't stress how important this run is and especially tonight's 0z. It's about 50 to 75 miles off from a significant hysteresis deviation in track. IE a tipping point in the model. I love this stuff. Typhoon Tip could explain it better. This is his wheelhouse.

So far there's no telling what will happen statistically as climatology does not argue for a sharp recurve.

What do you see other outcomes being if the models do change?

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3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

What do you see other outcomes being if the models do change?

Sadly it's looking like the HP won't hold in the medium to long range but the SE coast is at risk. The TC probably can't get farther NW than coastal Maryland without a digging trough in the GL.

In the end it may just mean more protracted meandering. It's quite a bit too far north for a Hurricane Jeanne setup.

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