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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Humberto

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5 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'm sure if Sandy's final track was predicted 216 hours out, that it would have been considered a comical solution as well. When it comes to hurricanes (and I'm certainly not claiming to be an expert) I don't believe that any scenario is "off the table" until nowcasting time.

I remember there was early consensus on Sandy between the GFS and EURO a week or two out.

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25 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Wasn't  Recon supposed to fly into 95l today?

But looking at visible and IR this thing has fallen apart last few hours.

Deepest convection West and NE of the "center".

Radar out of Nassau Bahamas.  Not showing anything.  But wind reports show a very broad circulation maybe 2.

 

Recon is still on from last check. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon is still on from last check. 

Yes, the 2PM update from NHC says it's on track. The latest ASCAT passes do not show a closed circulation but those thunderstorms are firing over the best area of low-level convergence. 

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Very scary scenario at 168 hours on the euro. 

The high builds over the top with the low coming up.

not really-it's well east of us-some rain but the big stuff is on the east side and offshore

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6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I remember there was early consensus on Sandy between the GFS and EURO a week or two out.

eh, no

https://asr.science.energy.gov/science/research-highlights/RNTU3/view

Panels (a,b,c), (d,e,f), (g,h,i), and (j,k,l) represent initialization times of 0000 UTC 23 October, 1200 UTC 23 October, 0000 UTC 24 October, and 1200 UTC 24 October, respectively. ECMWF (pink), GFS (green), TWRF (red), and SWRF (blue) tracks are shown in addition to Hurricane Sandy’s best track (black).

R00557_1.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not really-it's well east of us-some rain but the big stuff is on the east side and offshore

It was still close

 

This has to be watched closely.

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11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

eh, no

https://asr.science.energy.gov/science/research-highlights/RNTU3/view

Panels (a,b,c), (d,e,f), (g,h,i), and (j,k,l) represent initialization times of 0000 UTC 23 October, 1200 UTC 23 October, 0000 UTC 24 October, and 1200 UTC 24 October, respectively. ECMWF (pink), GFS (green), TWRF (red), and SWRF (blue) tracks are shown in addition to Hurricane Sandy’s best track (black).

R00557_1.jpg

It was the CMC that had it first about 8-9 days out...it went OTS a couple of runs, but it was the first model to sniff it out...

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13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol.

Very scary for fish.  We gotta keep a close eye on it. 

You have a crystal ball?

Seriously , I know the odds are low but to say something is a fish this early is foolish.

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anyway, earlier in the day it looked like convection was to the northeast, now we have pretty strong convection consolidating back to the SW where NHC has their big red X.

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23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You have a crystal ball?

Seriously , I know the odds are low but to say something is a fish this early is foolish.

No, I didn't say it WOULD be a fish.  We are talking about the current run of a model, and on that specific model that's what it shows.  

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

He doesn't get it and from the sounds if it he never will.

A storm impacting the NYC area or New England which previously made landfall over the Carolinas is a much different impact than a storm that has never made prior landfall and is accelerating North or NW towards the region. 

I thought you just meant track analogy. Some of the ones he mentioned kind of went due north and missed obx, but they didn't start or ever get west of obx before passing it.

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

He doesn't get it and from the sounds if it he never will.

A storm impacting the NYC area or New England which previously made landfall over the Carolinas is a much different impact than a storm that has never made prior landfall and is accelerating North or NW towards the region. 

Yeah, I don't get it, though just named seven N or NW moving hurricanes that struck the NE. :D My point is, they aren't any more rare than a Floyd or Bertha type track.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 23.7N  74.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  13/0600Z 24.5N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 25.5N  77.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  14/0600Z 26.5N  78.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 27.5N  80.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 30.0N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  16/1800Z 31.0N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  17/1800Z 31.5N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Avila

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14 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Fairly breezy here already here just N of Jupiter.

It’s windy AF here in Tampa, tho nothing to do with the TD.  But awesome anytime you get a stiff daytime breeze here in the summer months.

 

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