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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Humberto

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It’s time to start the thread specific discussion. 95L is gradually becoming more organized and is likely to develop. Where a well defined low level center will be key to intensity and track potential. Nothing is locked in at this point.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

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Well that's new... It also has EPS support.  Another East Coast threat?  The Euro does some funky things with 95L getting into day 7-9, along with new East Coast threat.  Geez...

ecmwf_mslpa_watl_5.png

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All options are still on the table, including an OTS solution. The only thing I’m really watching the guidance for at this point is where the center develops. We should get NHC thoughts if they do under designate this as a PTC later today.

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Still a bit too early to be sure, but early morning vis sat suggests a broad low-level circulation is developing N/NE of where the NHC has it X'd, likely just N of the Turks and Caicos. As long as convection persists in this area today, I think the northern/eastern/offshore (for now) solutions should work out. Gulf risk still there but likely decreasing. 06Z ECMWF pretty similar to the 00Z thru hour 90.

 

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Discussion this morning from the NHC says that if current trends continue, they could start initiating advisories as soon as later today.

In any event, what a comical solution on the 00z Euro.

u8XAaG4.gif

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39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Discussion this morning from the NHC says that if current trends continue, they could start initiating advisories as soon as later today.

In any event, what a comical solution on the 00z Euro.

 

I'm sure if Sandy's final track was predicted 216 hours out, that it would have been considered a comical solution as well. When it comes to hurricanes (and I'm certainly not claiming to be an expert) I don't believe that any scenario is "off the table" until nowcasting time.

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17 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm sure if Sandy's final track was predicted 216 hours out, that it would have been considered a comical solution as well. When it comes to hurricanes (and I'm certainly not claiming to be an expert) I don't believe that any scenario is "off the table" until nowcasting time.

I vaguely remember on the Euro picking up on Sandy very early. The GFS had landfall in Maine the day before while all the rest of the guidance was clustered near the mid-atlantic. 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Still a bit too early to be sure, but early morning vis sat suggests a broad low-level circulation is developing N/NE of where the NHC has it X'd, likely just N of the Turks and Caicos. As long as convection persists in this area today, I think the northern/eastern/offshore (for now) solutions should work out. Gulf risk still there but likely decreasing. 06Z ECMWF pretty similar to the 00Z thru hour 90.

 

Agreed. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see low-level center relocate/consolidate towards convection to the north and east.

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A great image to print out and keep nearby as we begin tracking another tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin

 

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8 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Agreed. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see low-level center relocate/consolidate towards convection to the north and east.

I think that’ll end up being what happens.

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58 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I vaguely remember on the Euro picking up on Sandy very early. The GFS had landfall in Maine the day before while all the rest of the guidance was clustered near the mid-atlantic. 

True, but I don't know if anyone thought early on that she would do what she actually did.

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Discussion this morning from the NHC says that if current trends continue, they could start initiating advisories as soon as later today.

In any event, what a comical solution on the 00z Euro.

u8XAaG4.gif

This would be the ultimate screw job for DC and Baltimore and Richmond so it'll probably happen

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This would be the ultimate screw job for DC and Baltimore and Richmond so it'll probably happen

I was thinking the same thing. 

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I vaguely remember on the Euro picking up on Sandy very early. The GFS had landfall in Maine the day before while all the rest of the guidance was clustered near the mid-atlantic. 

Yeah GFS kept finding some illusory weakness in the enormous block and sent the storm off towards Newfoundland many times. Euro was the King with that storm for sure.

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12Z GFS has a slightly stronger storm in the Eastern GOM than the 6Z run. Still nothing to write home about. Looks like Mexico Beach - Cape San Blas landfall 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_15.png

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Of the TVCN members 0Z ECMWF, 0Z UKMET, and 6Z COAMPS go east of FL, 6Z HWRF goes into FL, and 12Z GFS goes into the far eastern GOM.

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37 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

I was hoping the next system up after Dorian would an easy one to track for NOAA.  It could be another headache and a dickens to forecast

The next long track one out in the Atlantic/Caribbean likely will be.  That system in all likelihood will have 4 possible endings.  Hispaniola, Florida, some other state in the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan.  As of now I see no chance that likely eventual system gets anywhere east of Florida.  

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12z HWRF tracks 95L over central Florida and into the Gulf. A bit North of the GFS. Certainly more of a meh solution. 

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Yesterday the breeze began to pick up here on the Southeast Florida coast, and there was a general feeling in the air like a tropical cyclone is approaching. Today we have gotten the first couple of rain squalls near the edge of this disturbance's circulation, torrential but brief downpours and winds gusting to 30 mph. 

Looks like we may end up getting a broad and slow moving tropical storm, although things could get a little high tension if this has a closed circulation and is heading over the Gulf Stream. Can't rule out a hurricane yet, especially with how quickly it is taking shape today. 

Historical lesson: The Labor Day Hurricane was at this exact intensity, and at this exact spot, on a quite similar track only 2 days or so making landfall in the Florida Keys as a cateogry 5. 

That being said, once again, thinking this will be a tropical storm here in Florida for now. 

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Wasn't  Recon supposed to fly into 95l today?

But looking at visible and IR this thing has fallen apart last few hours.

Deepest convection West and NE of the "center".

Radar out of Nassau Bahamas.  Not showing anything.  But wind reports show a very broad circulation maybe 2.

 

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