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Autumn 2019 Banter Thread


doncat
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15 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

It is too early yet.

Let’s see

We have an active storm track and prolonged cold air if we look at Nov. 

I am really curious what the next month holds. It will tell us a lot

 

I am actually more enthusiastic because we didn't see any accumulating snow in November :P

 

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Same song and dance every single winter. Twitter "Mets" trying to boost views and likes by hyping cold and snow. Soon we kick the can down the road. On some sites people are analyzing a blizzard at hour 768. Its November 15, and the hype is worse than ever. We get a few cold days and people predict a cold winter...last winter taught me one thing, only expect snow when its actually falling. Before that, its anyone's guess.

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26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Same song and dance every single winter. Twitter "Mets" trying to boost views and likes by hyping cold and snow. Soon we kick the can down the road. On some sites people are analyzing a blizzard at hour 768. Its November 15, and the hype is worse than ever. We get a few cold days and people predict a cold winter...last winter taught me one thing, only expect snow when its actually falling. Before that, its anyone's guess.

I'm not even sure why people bother with long term forecasting.

Long term forecasting will be accurate when humans learn to control the weather!

 

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52 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Same song and dance every single winter. Twitter "Mets" trying to boost views and likes by hyping cold and snow. Soon we kick the can down the road. On some sites people are analyzing a blizzard at hour 768. Its November 15, and the hype is worse than ever. We get a few cold days and people predict a cold winter...last winter taught me one thing, only expect snow when its actually falling. Before that, its anyone's guess.

That's what the department of sanitation did last November when we got six inches of snow and it took me 3 hours to drive from White Plains to Mount Vernon normally a 15-minute ride. They waited till the snow started sticking and then called in personnel and it was too late by then. And you have Mets over the Internet that promote both cold and warm with their biases. For me the excitement of winter weather is tracking a storm, looking at something 7 to 10 days out and seeing how it evolves. Obviously it doesn't work out with regards to snow in most cases but I think most people enjoy the tracking

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Just now, binbisso said:

That's what the department of sanitation did last November when we got six inches of snow and it took me 3 hours to drive from White Plains to Mount Vernon normally a 15-minute ride. They waited till the snow started sticking and then called in personnel and it was too late by then. And you have Mets over the Internet that promote both cold and warm with their biases. For me the excitement of winter weather is tracking a storm, looking at something 7 to 10 days out and seeing how it evolves. Obviously it doesn't work out with regards to snow in most cases but I think most people enjoy the tracking

I think he means long range forecasting weeks and months in advance.  It's better to wait until it's within 5 days, that's plenty of time for the sanitation dept too.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think he means long range forecasting weeks and months in advance.  It's better to wait until it's within 5 days, that's plenty of time for the sanitation dept too.

 

Oh if that's what he meant then I agree long-range forecasting is very difficult. I was responding to more of the last line in "waiting   for the snow to Fall" before believing it.we can't go to the other end of the spectrum either

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Just now, binbisso said:

Oh if that's what he meant then I agree long-range forecasting is very difficult. I was responding to more of the last line in waiting.   for the snowfall to Fall before believing it.we can't go to the other end of the spectrum either

Yep, I like to wait for 5 days out because the models seem to be on a huge roller coaster 7-10 days away.  And some years are easier to forecast than others, this looks like one of the more difficult ones.

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, I like to wait for 5 days out because the models seem to be on a huge roller coaster 7-10 days away.  And some years are easier to forecast than others, this looks like one of the more difficult ones.

 

Yes I agree and I've seen instances where five days out models showing the rain snow Line North of Albany and then ends up snowing in Virginia happened a few years ago in a March snow storm that missed us. What I like to look at in the 7 to 10 day range is pattern recognition. If the euro is showing a sub 990 low at the benchmark at day 7 does it have any Merit on its ensembles at 500mb + where is the mjo and the teleconnectors  at that time. We've come a long way in forecasting weather since I was a kid and we can have an idea of what can happen in the 7 to 10 day range, especially temperatures but also storms, just the exact area they hit could be several hundred miles from what it showing at that time. Anything after 10 days though is a crapshoot

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2 hours ago, binbisso said:

Oh if that's what he meant then I agree long-range forecasting is very difficult. I was responding to more of the last line in "waiting   for the snow to Fall" before believing it.we can't go to the other end of the spectrum either

Yes, i said that in jest. 5 days is even too long of a lead time, for me its 72 hours. Tracking isnt really fun for me, i actually like the storm itself. I waste way too much time on my phone away from my family and distracted from work. It's actually a vice how much time I waste.

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7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Same song and dance every single winter. Twitter "Mets" trying to boost views and likes by hyping cold and snow. Soon we kick the can down the road. On some sites people are analyzing a blizzard at hour 768. Its November 15, and the hype is worse than ever. We get a few cold days and people predict a cold winter...last winter taught me one thing, only expect snow when its actually falling. Before that, its anyone's guess.

and the general public just laps it up like a thirsty dog-every winter is going to be "severe" and cold and snowy....

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On ‎11‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 10:08 AM, LibertyBell said:

I'm not even sure why people bother with long term forecasting.

Long term forecasting will be accurate when humans learn to control the weather!

 

Long trem forecasting is important. I also know all  the stuff is not towards dave   tolleris is not drserved 

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Yet another example of a cruise ship that had no clue about the well-modeled storm that is raging off the Southeast.

https://www.wbal.com/article/421416/3/baltimore-cruise-ship-delays-return-due-to-storm

Hiring a meteorologist is a tiny cost per cruise and per passenger. It is almost incomprehensible that a major cruise line would sail blindly oblivious to forecast weather conditions.

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On 11/17/2019 at 8:57 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Yet another example of a cruise ship that had no clue about the well-modeled storm that is raging off the Southeast.

https://www.wbal.com/article/421416/3/baltimore-cruise-ship-delays-return-due-to-storm

Hiring a meteorologist is a tiny cost per cruise and per passenger. It is almost incomprehensible that a major cruise line would sail blindly oblivious to forecast weather conditions.

“Moving at a reduced speed to stay behind the storm”

Do they not know how the ocean works? This is inconceivable to me after the last few incidents. The bad press effects the industry greatly. I ha e spoken to numerous people that will not take cruises because of it

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'UNICORN METEOR STORM' TO BE TRIGGERED BY MYSTERIOUS COMET THURSDAY NIGHT

What time to look for the flurry of meteors

Knowing when to look for the potential meteor storm is extremely important.

"Unlike most meteor outbursts which last for several hours, strong activity from the alpha Monocertids is over within an hour and easily missed," the American Meteor Society (AMS) explained on its website.

The outburst is forecast to reach its climax around 11:50 p.m. EST on Nov. 21, according to the AMS.

Onlookers should start looking for shooting stars around 11 p.m. EST and continue looking through midnight for the best chance to see the potential meteor storm. If you are not outside during this window, you may miss the celestial light show entirely.

"These meteors are never spaced evenly but appear in bunches so 2-3 meteors may be seen seconds apart and then an entire minute could go by without any activity," the AMS said.

 
Supposed to be mostly cloudy so we'll see
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42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

'UNICORN METEOR STORM' TO BE TRIGGERED BY MYSTERIOUS COMET THURSDAY NIGHT

 

What time to look for the flurry of meteors

Knowing when to look for the potential meteor storm is extremely important.

"Unlike most meteor outbursts which last for several hours, strong activity from the alpha Monocertids is over within an hour and easily missed," the American Meteor Society (AMS) explained on its website.

The outburst is forecast to reach its climax around 11:50 p.m. EST on Nov. 21, according to the AMS.

Onlookers should start looking for shooting stars around 11 p.m. EST and continue looking through midnight for the best chance to see the potential meteor storm. If you are not outside during this window, you may miss the celestial light show entirely.

"These meteors are never spaced evenly but appear in bunches so 2-3 meteors may be seen seconds apart and then an entire minute could go by without any activity," the AMS said.

 

 

 
Supposed to be mostly cloudy so we'll see

I've seen Perseid meteors through the fog in the Poconos, which was pretty amazing!

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39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah maybe we'll get lucky and get a nice show 

It was a weird night, I think the fog must've been really shallow because you could see a few stars right through the fog.  The meteor was really bright, I'd estimate it was around the same brightness as Jupiter.  Really easy to see, even through the fog.

The brightest ones I've seen (I'd call them fireballs) were as bright as Venus.

I saw the Leonid storm in November 2001, which was really early in the morning, around 5 AM.  I could see 100s of them PER MINUTE quite easily even with light pollution, it was like a silent fireworks display.  I could see them easily even when I wasn't looking at them or for them.  I dont think we'll get a storm like that again for 30 years or so.

 

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Met winter is quickly approaching. May all get blessed by the snow gods this winter. 

Remember though....more bickering you do...the less snow you get...and this is a throwback tradition that goes back to the old school days of the early wx boards back in the early 2000s...

Which I'm sure some will remember....

Meatball subs will bring the snow. :)

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An update concerning the issue of extreme ideas being broadcast on Social Media.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52511-autumn-2019-banter-thread/page/5/?tab=comments#comment-5338034

The cold pattern that was supposed to lock into place after mid-month:

Twitter10302019.jpg

The November 16-24 anomalies:

Nov16-242019.jpg

Based on the latest guidance, Chicago will likely wind up just below 0.5° above normal for the second half of November and New York City will wind up perhaps a little below 2.0° below normal. In short, the extreme scenario does not appear likely to verify.

The conclusion at that time (October 30): In sum, the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in.

For forecasting purposes, one should be wary of extreme calls without really strong supporting evidence. The teleconnection forecast at the time argued against such an outcome.

The final conclusion will be posted following November (probably in early December as it takes a few days for the anomalies maps to be updated).

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