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Autumn 2019 Banter Thread


doncat
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The Euro may become even more the go-to model once the NAM stops running. Could be quite a challenge for the new model to handle the NAM’s strengths. Just look at the new biases that poped up when the GFS was recently upgraded.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/

https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1171950138698473478

C9EBA5EB-1EA0-4135-8764-4C8AA19F943C.png.2ad029baee89a184c63fe4ae40e18930.png

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro may become even more the go-to model once the NAM stops running. Could be quite a challenge for the new model to handle the NAM’s strengths. Just look at the new biases that poped up when the GFS was recently upgraded.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/

https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1171950138698473478

C9EBA5EB-1EA0-4135-8764-4C8AA19F943C.png.2ad029baee89a184c63fe4ae40e18930.png

Like the article states...before the Nam is discontinued, improvements to the gfs etc. need to be made. I agree with the strengths of the nam that are mentioned, and find it most accurate for 2m  temps.

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3 hours ago, doncat said:

Like the article states...before the Nam is discontinued, improvements to the gfs etc. need to be made. I agree with the strengths of the nam that are mentioned, and find it most accurate for 2m  temps.

Let’s hope that they keep to that promise. We have seen past model upgrades before the bugs were worked out. It does look like it could be a very challenging task. Launching new models isn’t easy.

https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system

While the NAM does very well with low temperatures and CAD, it runs too cool with the high temperatures like we saw yesterday. The Euro seems to have a better handle on high temperatures. But it was even a few degrees too low yesterday with the strong WAA and dry conditions ahead of the front.

 

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2 hours ago, doncat said:

Sept finished  here with a +1.2° temp departure. Less of a positive departure than the urban sites with the dry good radiating nights.

You were one of the few cooler spots. Even the more rural HPN finished at +2.6 like EWR.

 

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4 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Here I am looking for any posted tidbits for the upcoming winter and its 95 freaking degrees in Newark. Unreal.

Well, ENSO is neutral. So not really going to have any easy calls based on that index. That leaves the door open for other drivers to take the wheel, so to speak. I'm actually a much bigger fan of the SST layout than I was last year. Cooler waters near Indonesia as compared to last year for one, which I think was one factor that worked against last year. It'll be interesting to see what happens. What I find interesting right now is the ++PMM. Curious to see how that evoles going forward. I'm putting this in banter because it didn't seem right in the other thread amongst all the 90's lol.

 

 

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My prediction for the winter is a 'COLD, STORMY ECONOMY'.         A Negative Spending Index,  A Positive Inflation Index,   Low Confidence Voter/Consumer Influx from middle America,  Tweeting in Phase 9!,  and a Chief Meteorologist with an Omega Block in his head.     LOL!

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On 9/24/2019 at 1:22 AM, mattinpa said:

Congrats Anthony and good luck. 

Hopefully that was the last 90 degree day today until at least May. I am so ready for crisp weather.

It hit 95 here on the south shore and the heat index was 100!  What I want to know is, is this the latest JFK has ever hit 95 and the latest they ever had a heat index of 100?

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Well I'd call it a pretty great foliage season so far this year. Unless we get a hardcore wind event I think this will turn out to be one of the better ones of the decade around the Northeast. I haven't been north of I90 in the last week but it's been beautiful everywhere I've been. Hopefully it doesn't all go away before I can get out west of Binghamton and up to the Daks in 2 weeks.

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On ‎10‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 3:38 PM, CIK62 said:

My prediction for the winter is a 'COLD, STORMY ECONOMY'.         A Negative Spending Index,  A Positive Inflation Index,   Low Confidence Voter/Consumer Influx from middle America,  Tweeting in Phase 9!,  and a Chief Meteorologist with an Omega Block in his head.     LOL!

I think you nailed it!

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The following was posted on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1182331950318718978

While technically true, that is not a good use of the CFSv2. Several points are in order:

First, the CFSv2 monthly forecasts are not typically skillful until 5-7 days out.

Second, within 6 days, the CFSv2 had highlighted the potential for cold anomalies in the northern Rockies and Northern Plains.

CFSv2-October2019forecasts.gif

October 1-8, 2019 Temperature Anomalies:

October1-8-2019.jpg

Third, if one applied the logic used to dismiss the CFSv2, which is not always accurate, it would be tantamount to judging the ECMWF's failure to forecast a significant storm from 5-days out when its forecasts from 72 hours and less were accurate.

In general, there can be benefit to waiting for additional data before reaching conclusions. Model verification scores closer to events bear that out. Setting artificial cut-offs that deprive one of later data generally increases one's forecasting error.

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