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George BM

September Discobs 2019

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Got down to 50F around 4 am, but spiked up to 55.  Looks like it coincided with a bit of breeze.  I see spots just west, probably sheltered, into the 40s.

Edit

Actually, it was clouds.  Bad timing, we could have easily made it to upper 40s.

 

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43 minutes ago, H2O said:

^Birds?

Yup

42 minutes ago, H2O said:

Very nice morning with temps.  Fall is awesome when it finally cools off

Perfect out this morning.  Then I looked at the Euro and got sad.

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15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yup

Perfect out this morning.  Then I looked at the Euro and got sad.

GEFS in full agreement.  After today, we roast, and practically all the way through the first week of Oct, with no end in sight at 384hr.  Pray that they are wrong.

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

GEFS in full agreement.  After today, we roast, and practically all the way through the first week of Oct, with no end in sight at 384hr.  Pray that they are wrong.

I guess it depends on what your definition of roasting is lol. Sat-Mon look quite warm- mid to upper 80s. Looks to drop back to more normal temps for mid next week, then we will see what happens the following weekend. It will likely get quite warm again with a trough digging out west, but it looks progressive. Personally I don't mind (I actually expect) days in the low 80s in this area in mid to late September, as long as we don't have ridiculous humidity levels like last fall, and there are no signs of that. 

My concern is there is literally no chance of significant rain for yet another week, and its already abnormally dry here.

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23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I guess it depends on what your definition of roasting is lol. Sat-Mon look quite warm- mid to upper 80s. Looks to drop back to more normal temps for mid next week, then we will see what happens the following weekend. It will likely get quite warm again with a trough digging out west, but it looks progressive. Personally I don't mind (I actually expect) days in the low 80s in this area in mid to late September, as long as we don't have ridiculous humidity levels like last fall, and there are no signs of that. 

My concern is there is literally no chance of significant rain for yet another week, and its already abnormally dry here.

My definition of roasting is anything above 80F this time of year.  

Meh, what good does rain do us now?  I like it dry beginning this time of year.  Better for the fall colors as long as we get cool nights.

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

My definition of roasting is anything above 80F this time of year.  

Meh, what good does rain do us now?  I like it dry beginning this time of year.  Better for the fall colors as long as we get cool nights.

Normally I wouldn't care so much, although the trees are dropping lots of leaves here already so not sure the color is going to be that great. I am trying to get a new lawn established out back, and its a real battle to keep the soil moist with no rain. Been watering for multiple hours a day for 3 weeks now. 

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30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Normally I wouldn't care so much, although the trees are dropping lots of leaves here already so not sure the color is going to be that great. I am trying to get a new lawn established out back, and its a real battle to keep the soil moist with no rain. Been watering for multiple hours a day for 3 weeks now. 

I've lost about half of what I planted back in May due to the dryness.......oh well, try again next year.

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30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Normally I wouldn't care so much, although the trees are dropping lots of leaves here already so not sure the color is going to be that great. I am trying to get a new lawn established out back, and its a real battle to keep the soil moist with no rain. Been watering for multiple hours a day for 3 weeks now. 

Yeah, it is bad for growing grass.  

Don't see the dryness ending anytime soon.

 

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1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

I've lost about half of what I planted back in May due to the dryness.......oh well, try again next year.

Probably the worst time to plant grass. It can barely get established and then the longer days and brutal sun come along and burn it up.

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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably the worst time to plant grass. It can barely get established and then the longer days and brutal sun come along and burn it up.

Was fine until first week of August when the spigot from above cut off. Late April to mid May is a pretty normal grass seeding time around here.

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Looks like we heat up well into the 80s Sat through Mon, then a cold front moves through. Despite the heat, dews should be in the upper 50s to around 60. That front offers probably our "best" shot at some rain over the next week. After that temps drop back to 80 or so for highs and upper 50s at night, before we heat up again by next Friday. Beyond that we may torch for a few days, but with ridging building in the NA around Greenland, there is an an upper low showing up south of that (50/50ish) on the means, so it may deliver a back door front as we see more of a NE trough develop and the upper ridging retro a bit more westward late next weekend into the following week, before weakening. Not at all sold on the idea of a persistent heat ridge/ torch for the rest of the month into early October. 

I put this here because no one really seems to read the Mid/LR thread lol.

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18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like we heat up well into the 80s Sat through Mon, then a cold front moves through. Despite the heat, dews should be in the upper 50s to around 60. That front offers probably our "best" shot at some rain over the next week. After that temps drop back to 80 or so for highs and upper 50s at night, before we heat up again by next Friday. Beyond that we may torch for a few days, but with ridging building in the NA around Greenland, there is an an upper low showing up south of that (50/50ish) on the means, so it may deliver a back door front as we see more of a NE trough develop and the upper ridging retro a bit more westward late next weekend into the following week, before weakening. Not at all sold on the idea of a persistent heat ridge/ torch for the rest of the month into early October. 

I put this here because no one really seems to read the Mid/LR thread lol.

Agree about the good chance of a backdoor and I also wonder if the southwest energy dump guidance is showing is the typical way too much as is the case many times esp Eps and Euro op. At least that used to be one of there biases . Probably still is .

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