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George BM

September Discobs 2019

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13 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

After a few days in the 80s this weekend into early next week, verbatim the 12z GEFS has highs in the 70s and lows mostly in the 50s the rest of the run, into early Oct. Can't hate on that. That's freaking normal climo here. We will see how it plays out. Even if it ends up warmer some of those days, who really cares?

Are people expecting hghs in the 60s and lows in the 40s in late Sept, outside of the highlands? LOL.

Just give me some damn rain.

Even if we're within a couple degrees of 80, it's not "never-ending summer." It'll (unfortunately) likely be dry, so it's not like we'll be dealing with mugginess, which is miles away from mid-summer 92/73 with high sun angle.

Do most of us want some cool days and rain? Absolutely. But seriously...the hyperbole just needs to stop.

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10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Even if we're within a couple degrees of 80, it's not "never-ending summer." It'll (unfortunately) likely be dry, so it's not like we'll be dealing with mugginess, which is miles away from mid-summer 92/73 with high sun angle.

Do most of us want some cool days and rain? Absolutely. But seriously...the hyperbole just needs to stop.

Persistent 5-10F above normal puts us basically in August normal range, so I don’t really think it’s hyperbole. Upper 80s for highs in late September or early October  is 15F or more above normal. I think every forgets what normal should be, which is why everyone acts like it’s a fall preview when we  have seasonally normal temps.

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39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Persistent 5-10F above normal puts us basically in August normal range, so I don’t really think it’s hyperbole. Upper 80s for highs in late September or early October  is 15F or more above normal. I think every forgets what normal should be, which is why everyone acts like it’s a fall preview when we  have seasonally normal temps.

Exactly.

I dont have the time to check the data, but do you know where we are with temps this month wrt to normal?

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14 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

After a few days in the 80s this weekend into early next week, verbatim the 12z GEFS has highs in the 70s and lows mostly in the 50s the rest of the run, into early Oct. Can't hate on that. That's freaking normal climo here. We will see how it plays out. Even if it ends up warmer some of those days, who really cares?

Are people expecting hghs in the 60s and lows in the 40s in late Sept, outside of the highlands? LOL.

Just give me some damn rain.

The EPS disagrees.

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Exactly.

I dont have the time to check the data, but do you know where we are with temps this month wrt to normal?

As of a couple days ago, airports were 4-5F AN.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

As of a couple days ago, airports were 4-5F AN.

Given what we're about to see starting Friday, sure looks like it's going to be a repeat of  last september.... minus the rain.

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It can rain any day now...went fishing at Ft. Ritchie this weekend and the lake was the lowest I've ever seen.

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2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The EPS disagrees.

So does my point and click. After these 2 days of normal temps it's highs near 90 as far as it goes out. I think our rants are justified.

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My memory could be failing me, but I don't remember many, if any, refreshing low dew point days with cool nights this time last year. Yes we are going to have a few days well into the 80s coming up, but I just don't see anything resembling the putrid period we endured early last fall with day after day of warm, tropical air. Now that was something to complain about.

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Last year the leaves didn't really change until November because we went all tropical for the first half of fall. This year most of the leaves might be off the trees due to stress before we ever see any color lol.

We seriously need a rainy period. That is something more worthy of whining about than some warm days in September.

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41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Some guidance suggesting a decent chance at hitting 40s tomorrow morning n+w and esp Fri morning . Bring it 

Forecast low of 51 here tonight and 49 tomorrow night.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Forecast low of 51 here tonight and 49 tomorrow night.

Next 2 evenings and mornings are going to be very nice.  I just wish it'd been weekend weather; perfect firepit conditions.

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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Next 2 evenings and mornings are going to be very nice.  I just wish it'd been weekend weather; perfect firepit conditions.

Yeah I finished my firepit back in June, and tried it out twice during the summer. Hopefully we have a nice, normal period of fall weather(with some rain!) in October through November.

Then the -AO/NAO/EPO ridge the CanSIPS is advertising can lock in with a cold, snowy December.

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I finished my firepit back in June, and tried it out twice during the summer. Hopefully we have a nice, normal period of fall weather(with some rain!) in October through November.

Then the -AO/NAO/EPO ridge the CanSIPS is advertising can lock in with a cold, snowy December.

Meanwhile we build up North , for your Fire pit of course ;)

 

gfs_asnow_namer_65.png

 

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Speaking of cold and snow, last Thanksgiving wasn't even above freezing here. I figured I'd allude to that siberian cold snap season will be here in just a month and a half or so. Coldest thanksgiving in 22 years IIRC

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9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Speaking of cold and snow, last Thanksgiving wasn't even above freezing here. I figured I'd allude to that siberian cold snap season will be here in just a month and a half or so. Coldest thanksgiving in 22 years IIRC

Yeah we went quickly from summer to winter.  Very short fall.  Dont want a repeat.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Speaking of cold and snow, last Thanksgiving wasn't even above freezing here. I figured I'd allude to that siberian cold snap season will be here in just a month and a half or so. Coldest thanksgiving in 22 years IIRC

Deep Creek got ~7-8" of snow the week of Thanksgiving last year.  

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