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George BM

September Discobs 2019

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2 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

If it makes you feel any better, I noted that in Sept 1983 we hit 98, 98, 100 f on the 6th, 10th, 11th. Also 94 and 92 f on the 19th and 20th. (All records). This led to the coldest Christmas we ever had hitting record mins of 4, 0, amd 2 f on Dec 24th, 25th, 26th. 

Also hit our coldest temp on record of -7f on Jan 22. 

1983-84 was not a real snowy winter though. (14.5")

all numbers from BWI.

It doesn't,  but thanks for those interesting stats. :lol:

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20 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs says deep fall is coming in 2 weeks:D 

1st freeze western Md , WV 

 

Screenshot_20190909-192750_Chrome_crop_288x381.jpg

Hmm...

This sucks !!   But, beach weather looking great !!!!

 

 

 

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Wed/ Thurs looking maybe hot but not dry . Decent  chance for thunderstorms ea day it appears . With HH conditions and pretty high pwats . Maybe we can get some gully washers 

Sterling snipit..

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
At first glance, high pressure ridging will be entrenched across
the area. However, all guidance sources consistent that there
will be a shortwave embedded within the mid level flow during
the mid-late afternoon hours. While the best PVA will be to the
north of the Mason-Dixon line, subtle height falls will be seen
in MD/VA as well. Since 850 mb temperatures likely to rise to
near 20C, believe that highs will be in the lower 90s.
Inherently, the airmass will be unstable, with a reasonably high
probability (70%) of MUCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg per SREF.
This same guidance source suggests that DCAPE likely (greater
than 50% chance) to be above 1000 J/kg. Shear not extreme, but
25-30 kt will be enough to support thunderstorms given these
other variables.

So, think that the shortwave passage, during peak heating, will
act in concert with terrain circulations to initiate convection
by late afternoon. Scattered convection will then propagate
across the forecast area through the evening. Would not rule out
locally strong wind gusts given heat and forecast instability
parameters.

By Thursday, this shortwave will be in the western Atlantic.
The resultant longwave troffing will support a backdoor cold
front to drop into the Mid Atlantic. While the forcing mechanism
will be different, the result will be the same. A surface
boundary will be dropping into a hot/humid/unstable airmass and
help focus convection. Scattered diurnal convection remains in
the forecast, focused on the afternoon and evening hours.

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Maybe I95 corridor in next couple of hours?

 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

VAC043-061-107-187-112015-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/
Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Warren VA-Fauquier VA-
337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN WARREN
AND NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTIES...

At 337 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or
12 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Middleburg, The Plains, Delaplane, Linden, Marshall, Saint Louis,
Howellsville, Rectortown, Blue Mountain, Halfway, Upperville,
Markham, Bethel, Ashville, Paris and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 7808 3901 7808 3906 7801 3907 7797
      3906 7789 3902 7766 3880 7781 3886 7800
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 286DEG 16KT 3898 7797

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

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23 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We’ve had some real winter stinkers in the years when cold was always 10 days away.

That's every winter here.

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Oooooh a very dangerous storm designation!

 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

VAC043-061-107-112015-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/
Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Fauquier VA-
343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE AND NORTH CENTRAL
FAUQUIER COUNTIES...

At 342 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or
17 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
         life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
         some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
         roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

Locations impacted include...
Sky Meadows State Park, Paris, and Upperville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 7797 3907 7796 3906 7789 3902 7766
      3880 7781 3884 7793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 271DEG 32KT 3899 7787

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH

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15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Exactly, hence my self-trolling.

 

Heck of a lightning strike in Burke (towards W. Springfield) a couple of minutes ago. We all jumped in our house. Good stuff. These guys working on a driveway on my court are still outside. I don't get it...

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4 minutes ago, jbakerman said:

Heck of a lightning strike in Burke (towards W. Springfield) a couple of minutes ago. We all jumped in our house. Good stuff. These guys working on a driveway on my court are still outside. I don't get it...

Yeah - that was one of the bigger strikes I’ve heard in a while.

One of the best - if not the best - storms of the season here in Burke.

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13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

No.

8BAC90B7-1298-4C9E-82A3-799CEF3AD0DF.jpeg.86e19791609ac6d3835aebdaa25868d5.jpeg

Lol..

I remember getting "surprises " rolled up in aluminum foil trick or treating.  ( , brownie , fruit cake,  corn biscuit, white powered donuts ,etc) and loose change .  Never rocks :lol:

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Models aren't excited about and rain today. They are excited about the one thing we do best, heat. I'm sure we'll over perform and be near 100 this afternoon. Can't beat highs near 100 in the middle of September. 

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1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Models aren't excited about and rain today. They are excited about the one thing we do best, heat. I'm sure we'll over perform and be near 100 this afternoon. Can't beat highs near 100 in the middle of September. 

The forecast for today went from 89 last night to 95 this morning.  JFC.

 

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7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The good news is the GFS is once again advertising deep fall.  Just another 312 hr wait.  All hail the GFS.

It has been pretty persistent with the idea that we see a fall-like air mass to close out the month. That advertised h5 look on the 6z GEFS run towards the end- I would rather save for a few months down the road.

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