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George BM

September Discobs 2019

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It is dry and you are right- no real prospects for a widespread soaker anytime soon. Plus we'll be pushing 90 for at least a couple days this week.

I reseeded most of the back yard 2 weeks ago so I am constantly watering in that area. 

Yep, it stinks I am pondering pushing off the over seed that I had targeted for next weekend to late September.   

For now it appears we transition to a above normal temp regime after mid-month. 

Don S believe the data points to a warm Fall overall.  Of course it is still early to tell for sure. 

The weeklies as Don  mentions supports the warmer temps.  I mean it does seem the general way we roll is a warm Fall . And to go with that with the exception of last March , March has been more wintery than Decembers have been recently. Sort of like it takes time to get the ball rolling and the effects of blocking tend to show up later in the winter season. 

Maybe some things at play this Fall will change that. At this time I am hoping we maintain Nino forcings. The QBO will be telling as well, as one piece of many that we need to look at in the months ahead.  I would also look for hints in terms of the MJO and the amplitude, in view of the SH SSWE and the effects on the tropics. 

Of couse too, is the possibility the CFS has regarding the Pac and the Nino in the months ahead. 

 

Here is the update Don  posted :

 

he SOI was -15.27 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.225.

 

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

 

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September. Nevertheless, a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

 

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September.

 

On September 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.154 (RMM). The September 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.228.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 58%.

 

 

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We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 .

And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times,  when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event.  And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor.  Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur.    

 

F4822BD7-0973-47AD-9A0A-F2BDA2E6D82E.gif.ec3094e003a263f3df1a451750012cf6.gif

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 .

And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times,  when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event.  And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor.  Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur.    

 

F4822BD7-0973-47AD-9A0A-F2BDA2E6D82E.gif.ec3094e003a263f3df1a451750012cf6.gif

Absolute perfect timing to **** us.  Negative straight through the months it doesn't help us and a flip to + as soon as it can hurt us.

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1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

53.3 here with a bit of fog, windows and doors opened wide!

Same here ....Yea...incredible morning once again.  There's actually been alot of lows in the 50s this summer as a whole . We've definitely had our share of HHH up this way   but no real long stretches. First flakes are around the corner :ph34r:

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2 hours ago, frd said:

We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 .

And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times,  when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event.  And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor.  Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur.    

 

F4822BD7-0973-47AD-9A0A-F2BDA2E6D82E.gif.ec3094e003a263f3df1a451750012cf6.gif

It's just running around seasonal.. it will be interesting to see if the Atlantic SST index, which has been a great predictor of the Winter NAO, and came in about -1.00 verifies. 

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The mid month period looks pretty toasty, and generally dry.

Hopefully the very end of the month into early October will be more fall-like(unlike last year) and a bit wetter.

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The mid month period looks pretty toasty, and generally dry.

Hopefully the very end of the month into early October will be more fall-like(unlike last year) and a bit wetter.

 Let’s hope the winter maps don’t look like this ;)

image.thumb.gif.29fa65d8ba7ce4761b8a79579998ad22.gif

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28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ah, this is the heat and humidity that I remember down in Charlottesville.

Absolutely horrible day and it’s only gonna get worse this week.

I always get a laugh when someone in mid to late august posts that, after a nice 384hr run, "summer is over" or "it's back is broken".  The sad reality is that it is summer here until mid October.... at least.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

My God I’m so tired of warm/hot and dry. It’s like Stephens City around here. 

October is the new September around these parts.   

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6 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I always get a laugh when someone in mid to late august posts that, after a nice 384hr run, "summer is over" or "it's back is broken".  The sad reality is that it is summer here until mid October.... at least.

Gfs says deep fall is coming in 2 weeks:D 

1st freeze western Md , WV 

 

Screenshot_20190909-192750_Chrome_crop_288x381.jpg

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Forecast today suddenly up to 86 and 94 tomorrow.  Since we almost always exceed forecasted temps, we will be 95F in mid september.  Some places probably will be upper 90s.  Unreal.  What a God-awful region we live.

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37 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Forecast today suddenly up to 86 and 94 tomorrow.  Since we almost always exceed forecasted temps, we will be 95F in mid september.  Some places probably will be upper 90s.  Unreal.  What a God-awful region we live.

We usually do one surprise mid-90s heat wave in September.  

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Just now, mattie g said:

Yeah. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

I love a few days in September in the upper 80s...there's something really relaxing about it, especially in the evening when the windows are open and you watch the sun set.  After October 1st it can get cold.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I love a few days in September in the upper 80s...there's something really relaxing about it, especially in the evening when the windows are open and you watch the sun set.  After October 1st it can get cold.

September heat just isn't as hot, if that makes sense. Sun isn't as high/strong, and with decreasing daylight it doesn't feel like the heat goes on for too long each day.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

September heat just isn't as hot, if that makes sense. Sun isn't as high/strong, and with decreasing daylight it doesn't feel like the heat goes on for too long each day.

Yup, it's like a nice relaxing warm.

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3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Forecast today suddenly up to 86 and 94 tomorrow.  Since we almost always exceed forecasted temps, we will be 95F in mid september.  Some places probably will be upper 90s.  Unreal.  What a God-awful region we live.

If it makes you feel any better, I noted that in Sept 1983 we hit 98, 98, 100 f on the 6th, 10th, 11th. Also 94 and 92 f on the 19th and 20th. (All records). This led to the coldest Christmas we ever had hitting record mins of 4, 0, amd 2 f on Dec 24th, 25th, 26th. 

Also hit our coldest temp on record of -7f on Jan 22. 

1983-84 was not a real snowy winter though. (14.5")

all numbers from BWI.

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