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September Discobs 2019


George BM
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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe, but the initial piece of NS energy dropping down, then a following piece, are going to flatten the current ridge after tomorrow. Should be pretty pleasant for the midweek period. As we approach Friday another eastern ridge will begin to pop as the NS motherload drops down out west and forms a deep trough. Next weekend might be warmer than this weekend. That ridge could stick around for 6-7 days, although with a strong NA ridge and NS energy moving underneath it, there is a chance it could flatten/break down the east coast ridge sooner.

Looking at the overall long wave pattern, and rolling that forward, it likely favors more eastern ridging beyond that though. Torchtober! Hopefully the pattern retrogrades enough to place the mean ridge to our west after the first few days of October.

Yes, the heat at starting at 168 hr on the EPS and GFS looks even warmer than this weekend.  

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41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think I am taking the under on temps on the extended myself. Awful lot of amplification with the long wave pattern and though we are getting to that time of year where you come to expect to see that it is still a little early. 

That said, would love to see this come in as depicted despite the heat it would bring. Pump up the heat and heights in the upper latitudes that this sort of amplification would bring so early in the game (as far as winter) would bode well for disrupting the formative stages of the PV.

Agreed. I don't really mind temps in the 80s for a few days here and there. So far its been short lived, then a nice cooldown, then repeat. I would just like some rain and this pattern is not conducive for more than low chance passing showers with most of the energy with cold fronts staying north.

It is good to see the propensity for heights to build up top on the guidance. Pretty stout looking -NAO being advertised. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

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43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agreed. I don't really mind temps in the 80s for a few days here and there. So far its been short lived, then a nice cooldown, then repeat. I would just like some rain and this pattern is not conducive for more than low chance passing showers with most of the energy with cold fronts staying north.

It is good to see the propensity for heights to build up top on the guidance. Pretty stout looking -NAO being advertised. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

Can't really get too worked up about the lack of rain. During the summer it's a different story because of the garden but now not so much. And the lack of rain during a warm fall is pretty standard (as I have seen time and again over the years) considering the long wave pattern that sets up typically to bring us that warmth (minus any tropical of course). 

As far as the height builds in the upper latitudes? I like what we have been seeing recently. Will it translate into the winter is a different story though. But so far so good as it should hinder the development of the PV. Give me a weakened and disturbed PV any winter and I will gladly roll the dice as far as the predominant long wave pattern that sets up.

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Really impressive heat ridge building. The typical recent decade era of warm Falls continues, but now so with a more extreme solution possible as some models are forecasting record heights next weekend.

To make matters worse, some models now show the WAR as an almost permanent feature in the early Fall and some keep the feature deep in the Fall season. This in a backdrop of growing drought concerns.     

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40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Can't really get too worked up about the lack of rain. During the summer it's a different story because of the garden but now not so much. And the lack of rain during a warm fall is pretty standard (as I have seen time and again over the years) considering the long wave pattern that sets up typically to bring us that warmth (minus any tropical of course). 

As far as the height builds in the upper latitudes? I like what we have been seeing recently. Will it translate into the winter is a different story though. But so far so good as it should hinder the development of the PV. Give me a weakened and disturbed PV any winter and I will gladly roll the dice as far as the predominant long wave pattern that sets up.

-AO is at the top of the list for increased chances of colder and above average snow for this region.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Half the leaves will be off the trees before actual color change can occur.

They almost ARE here now, least in my yard, crazy! I've been leaf raking/mowing for last 3 weeks. On a brighter note, I am now officially inside the 'first freeze' time of year (1983) and days are getting shorter. Average first freeze is around 14th of October and has been as late as first week of Nov!

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d lock in the entire 12z gfs if I could. Dare I say rainy and a very cool start to October? 

Read in the Mount Holy AFD this AM,  but have not looked any further since then, that the GFS had a cool down coming with rain chances later this weekend, while the Euro was continued very warm.

Hoping the GFS solution you mention here is the correct one. 

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38 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Gosh darn it’s dry and terrible out.  We need a week of rain and then some legit fall cool air. 

Instead, you'll get 10 days of mid July heat without a drop of rain.

But, maybe then we'll get some fall air.  I suspect the models will back way off that strong cold front idea as we get closer.

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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

Gosh darn it’s dry and terrible out.  We need a week of rain and then some legit fall cool air. 

You know what is really bad. I have been craving a thunderstorm or even just rain so much that I have had a Pandora station of thunderstorms/rain tracks playing the past few nights. 

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