Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

September Discobs 2019


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like OC, Chincoteague down to Va beach getting good rains and even as far northwest as Leonardtown,  Hollywood Md getting showers . Even @C.A.P.E.s yard has some showers moving in from his east 

60 currently here and cloudy.

Picked up some light stuff overnight. .04". That batch east of me in central DE looks like it may be pivoting this way. Not expecting much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

78 gust.  damn

000
NOUS41 KAKQ 061151
PNSAKQ
MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525-062351-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
751 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Lat/Lon
Chesapeake Light Tower       78 MPH    0716 AM 09/06   36.90N/75.71W
Ccem Carova Beach Fire Depar 67 MPH    0730 AM 09/06   36.52N/75.87W
Rudee Inlet                  61 MPH    0742 AM 09/06   36.83N/75.97W
Cape Henry                   58 MPH    0741 AM 09/06   36.93N/76.01W
Cape Henry, VA               57 MPH    0730 AM 09/06   36.93N/76.01W
Sandbridge                   57 MPH    0739 AM 09/06   36.70N/75.93W
Ccem Jarvisburg Elementary S 57 MPH    0720 AM 09/06   36.20N/75.86W
8 NW Cape Henry              56 MPH    0612 AM 09/06   37.03N/76.08W
Willoughby Deguassing Statio 54 MPH    0642 AM 09/06   36.98N/76.32W
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The wind orientation is perfect coming from the NNE so I can tuck my balcony chair into the NW corner and stay dry and watch the waves.  I did venture out to the beach for a few mins but the sandblast on my legs was pretty unpleasant.

Waves are pretty incredible... quite a few are easily 10-15ft and they've made it over the first dune with still 30 mins or so to high tide.

I'm pretty salty that KDOX went down at 10a... smh

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It's getting extremely dry around here and there's no relief in sight. I hate ugly brown dry falls. Looks like another fall with no fall color incoming. 

It is dry and you are right- no real prospects for a widespread soaker anytime soon. Plus we'll be pushing 90 for at least a couple days this week.

I reseeded most of the back yard 2 weeks ago so I am constantly watering in that area. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It is dry and you are right- no real prospects for a widespread soaker anytime soon. Plus we'll be pushing 90 for at least a couple days this week.

I reseeded most of the back yard 2 weeks ago so I am constantly watering in that area. 

Yep, it stinks I am pondering pushing off the over seed that I had targeted for next weekend to late September.   

For now it appears we transition to a above normal temp regime after mid-month. 

Don S believe the data points to a warm Fall overall.  Of course it is still early to tell for sure. 

The weeklies as Don  mentions supports the warmer temps.  I mean it does seem the general way we roll is a warm Fall . And to go with that with the exception of last March , March has been more wintery than Decembers have been recently. Sort of like it takes time to get the ball rolling and the effects of blocking tend to show up later in the winter season. 

Maybe some things at play this Fall will change that. At this time I am hoping we maintain Nino forcings. The QBO will be telling as well, as one piece of many that we need to look at in the months ahead.  I would also look for hints in terms of the MJO and the amplitude, in view of the SH SSWE and the effects on the tropics. 

Of couse too, is the possibility the CFS has regarding the Pac and the Nino in the months ahead. 

 

Here is the update Don  posted :

 

he SOI was -15.27 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.225.

 

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

 

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September. Nevertheless, a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

 

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September.

 

On September 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.154 (RMM). The September 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.228.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 58%.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 .

And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times,  when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event.  And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor.  Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur.    

 

F4822BD7-0973-47AD-9A0A-F2BDA2E6D82E.gif.ec3094e003a263f3df1a451750012cf6.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, frd said:

We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 .

And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times,  when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event.  And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor.  Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur.    

 

F4822BD7-0973-47AD-9A0A-F2BDA2E6D82E.gif.ec3094e003a263f3df1a451750012cf6.gif

Absolute perfect timing to **** us.  Negative straight through the months it doesn't help us and a flip to + as soon as it can hurt us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, frd said:

We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 .

And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times,  when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event.  And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor.  Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur.    

 

F4822BD7-0973-47AD-9A0A-F2BDA2E6D82E.gif.ec3094e003a263f3df1a451750012cf6.gif

It's just running around seasonal.. it will be interesting to see if the Atlantic SST index, which has been a great predictor of the Winter NAO, and came in about -1.00 verifies. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...