Dunkman Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: It’s definitely important to remember a Florida landfall is well within range of a “typical forecast error” 48 hours out. Yeah and honestly it seems like the NHC was maybe a little late with the hurricane watches. I really think the wind radii expanding out relatively rapidly is a pretty big concern. I know they didn't go with the actual reading but I can't say I ever remember a dropsonde measuring 200+ at the surface before. Anyone else? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: lolz. Talk to the NHC and see why they don't even bother running verification scores on it. If this thing hits FL it's going to be a major black eye for forecasters. Accuracy has not been great from any outlet on this thus far. I think it's concerning how insistent forecasters are about this turn in an environment that appears to have very week steering. I believe that is the best forecast, but I'm not sure how much confidence to place in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 At this rate of intensification Dorian will be a 300 mph sub 850 mb storm by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 People who don't believe in global warming are dumbasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Just now, Will - Rutgers said: People who don't believe in global warming are dumbasses Natural cycles dude. We are coming down off the ice age still, bro. Mars is hella warm too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Natural cycles dude. We are coming down off the ice age still, bro. Mars is hella warm tooLooking at the solar cycles and the solar minimum for possibly 30 years, I’d say we are headed towards a cooler period rather than a warmer one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Natural cycles dude. We are coming down off the ice age still, bro. Mars is hella warm too It snowed this one time lol checkmate scientardos 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Natural cycles dude. We are coming down off the ice age still, bro. Mars is hella warm tooWe have a long ways to go to catch up with Venus.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 What a weeniecane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 if dorian did no damage would its' name be retired on it's stats alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 if dorian did no damage would its' name be retired on it's stats alone? Yes. They will determine the appropriateness of reusing names after everything is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Just now, fyrfyter said: Yes. I think Cat 4+ is retirement Not true. There have been a ton of cat 4 storms that hit nothing that aren’t retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 The amount of wishcasting going on hoping for a monster cat 5 hurricane to make landfall in a densely populated area is frankly disturbing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 The amount of wishcasting going on hoping for a monster cat 5 hurricane to make landfall in a densely populated area is frankly disturbing.And this surprises you how? People don’t want boring and mundane. What the news media does on top of this doesn’t help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Not true. There have been a ton of cat 4 storms that hit nothing that aren’t retired.Apparently since the 50s, this is decided at the end of the year after hurricane season is over as to reusing a name. Based upon things this today, I’d say this one will be retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The amount of wishcasting going on hoping for a monster cat 5 hurricane to make landfall in a densely populated area is frankly disturbing. Only one area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, fyrfyter said: Apparently since the 50s, this is decided at the end of the year after hurricane season is over as to reusing a name. Based upon things this today, I’d say this one will be retired. Well yeah, because it is crushing the Bahamas right now and that is just the start. If there was a 150 mph cat 4 over the middle of the Atlantic that impacted nothing it would not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: “There goes the lamps” — should be the least of their worries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaPlata Twister Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 These guys are hanging out in my home town of Kingsland, GA. Heard they’ve been putting instrumentation in the waterways here. Hoping this isn’t a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, BRSno said: Really dodged a major bullet down here in FLL. 185mph is just crazy. Aside from the cliche, it wouldn't be 185 mph by the time it got to Florida because its forward speed would slow enough to weaken him due to upwelling. Probably would be a category 3 similar to Hurricane Frances' weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Euro seems to be coming in west FWIW. NHC is running out of water to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, LaPlata Twister said: These guys are hanging out in my home town of Kingsland, GA. Heard they’ve been putting instrumentation in the waterways here. Hoping this isn’t a bad sign. If nothing else they could be setting stuff out to help validate their models. It's a good opportunity for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Sorta surprised watching videos that the damage is not worse. cat 5 is everything is gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Animal said: Sorta surprised watching videos that the damage is not worse. cat 5 is everything is gone The videos were taken while the eye was passing over. They've got a lot longer to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 KAMX radar on the loop looks like the Eye will pass towards the South of Freeport. I'm taking that as a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 was out at the beach in Stuart before sheriff booted me off. would post photos here but the upload feature sucks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Just awful watching these videos coming out of the Bahamas so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: was out at the beach in Stuart before sheriff booted me off. would post photos here but the upload feature sucks . Maybe SandySurvivor can post them for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: was out at the beach in Stuart before sheriff booted me off. would post photos here but the upload feature sucks . Use Tapatalk... I wised up and downloaded the app, circumnavigates the upload MB size 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Wobble is the new convective feedback term of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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