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Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread


Jtm12180
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Does anybody have any idea how many millions of dollars have been refunded for this very important weekend in Florida? Could it be in the billions?
Even on the west coast in Clearwater Beach we've handed out refunds when our policies were spelled out that ONLY when a mandatory evacuation is in place do we refund. But with panicking guests who are terrified to come to Florida with all the media hype are begging us, we go above and beyond our policy and give them their money back. Sadly we are looking at a totally gorgeous weekend, but so many have stayed home wherever they are.
Statewide, I cannot imagine the financial impact this media fiasco has cost us all. It is a disaster even if Dorian never touches our state. Huge disaster.
Do I believe Governor DeSantis, who has been upfront on urging residents to be prepared, would have an enormous amount of pressure on him to do what he can to ease public fear on Florida tourism? Would Trump be under pressure? We are talking a TON of money on a weekend when tourism is critical for a lot of businesses to survive until Thanksgiving week.
Can you imagine the publicity a Cat 5 hurricane would have when the media is drooling for some kind of major story right now? When Dorian was a "direct hit" on Florida, they were raking in the dough with advertisers and ratings. But with it going out to sea, they are losing viewers quickly. "Historic Cat 5!" BINGO they have it back and Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina pay the price even if a rain drop or steady breeze never touches any of us.
Someone said it was a "ridiculous" idea to think that the NHC would not go with Cat 5 right now even if it was. How ignorant they must be.
To underestimate the power of politics and industry is as dangerous as under estimating the power of a hurricane.
No offense to anyone, please, but know the world we live and understand how it works.
So you're blaming the media for the hurricane basically. You'd be the type to stay put cause you think it's all hype and then be the first to complain if it hit and say they didn't do enough.

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At what point will the pro forecasters and meteorologists admit that UK and ICON models are onto something that the NHC refuses to admit?  It's bizarre because the storm is starting to move WSW rather than W now via infrared GOES and visible satellite imagery.   This storm is looking more and more like a Florida landfall is going to occur.

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I know Josh has been in many intense Hurricanes. Has he ever been in the eyewall of something this intense? He was not the in strongest winds of Michael, Patricia was a weakening 4, Haiyan was probably a 4 by the time it got to Tacloban City. I know Michael last year was the lower pressure he has actually recorded.

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1 hour ago, Steven_1974 said:

So you're blaming the media for the hurricane basically. You'd be the type to stay put cause you think it's all hype and then be the first to complain if it hit and say they didn't do enough.

Not at all, but I am blaming the national media for creating mass-hysteria earlier in the week and I was reminding any readers here that what is "entertainment" for major media comes with a huge cost for businesses and families. Local media has done a great job balancing how to warn residents and encourage making preparations while not creating wide-spread panic.

As for the NHC, science is the base, but then there has to be judgement calls on how to attempt to produce an accurate forecast and minimize undue hardship on everybody emotionally and financially. I am sure phone calls are being made by businesses to their Chamber of Commerce, and from Chambers to their representatives all the way to the Governor. Some of those concerns would certainly make it to the NHC where some decisions may be influenced, within reason of course.

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1 minute ago, Flying Bouncy House said:

If the models don't predict rapid intensification, and any wobble or interaction with land mass could impact direction, I wouldn't discount any solution that has a Florida landfall.  I do see a couple ticks north on the satellite, but could wobble south again as the center moves over the islands.

Hurricane intensity forecasts are always a crapshoot, though.  Michael wasn’t supposed to get nearly as strong as it did right before landfall in the FL panhandle last year, either.

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6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Hurricane intensity forecasts are always a crapshoot, though.  Michael wasn’t supposed to get nearly as strong as it did right before landfall in the FL panhandle last year, either.

They certainly are, but other than the short-term track, there hasn't been much consistency in the models.  I would be very concerned with the Ukies, but we won't know until it progresses through the islands.  If it hasn't started turning NW by then, all bets are off and the panic will set in.  This is crazy stuff to watch, like the worst possible reality show you could imagine.

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6 minutes ago, Flying Bouncy House said:

They certainly are, but other than the short-term track, there hasn't been much consistency in the models.  I would be very concerned with the Ukies, but we won't know until it progresses through the islands.  If it hasn't started turning NW by then, all bets are off and the panic will set in.  This is crazy stuff to watch, like the worst possible reality show you could imagine.

It’s definitely important to remember a Florida landfall is well within range of a “typical forecast error” 48 hours out.

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