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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the cool downs lose their intensity after humberto recurves away

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh0-240.gif

 

I've noticed a defined tendency on either side of the anomaly dial for that... The latter mid/extended range pattern biases normalize - that's not unheard of as modeling shenanigans go. But this lost heat, or scaled back cooling, as they have been coming into nearer terms, has been particularly coherent all summer, actually. 

I distinction I can only wonder if will continue observable as we head into fall.

 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

When you look at some of the temp records around here, the 1960s through early-mid 1980s are pretty unrepresentative of the century as a whole. They had some of the lowest variance year to year and were very cold. 

Farmington's average annual temps by decade show that clearly.  Of note, observations moved to their current site in September of 1966.  Before then they were in warmer locales near town center.  Even though Farmington is a small town, the pavement ratio is quite high in its center.  Just throwing things at the wall...   I'd guess that readings from the 1/1/1893 start through summer 1966 were boosted 1-2°, so pretend 180s thru 1950s were maybe 1.5° cooler than the numbers below, and the 60s 1° (only 2/3 of decade in-town.)

1890s   43.67
1990s   42.40
1910s   42.88
1920s   43.17
1930s   44.78
1940s   44.14
1950s   43.88
1960s   41.68   Edit:  1960-66 avg temp 42.07; 1967-69 temp 40.76.  PWM avg 60-66: 44.48; 67-69: 45.14     I'd say change of location was Farmington factor.
1970s   40.58
1980s   41.01
1990s   42.13
2000s   43.00
2010s   43.72  to date

The 30s-50s mild spell shows up nicely.  Western Maine had an epidemic of birch dieback (mainly in yellow birch) during the 40s, and some have laid that to the warmer temps weakening the trees and making them susceptible to bronze birch borer, the insect that actually killed them.

Trading the 1980s for the 2010s will make major differences in the 30-year norms.  In addition to the temps, here are precip and snowfall:

Precip
1980s   44.37
2010s   49.33

Snow
1980s   79.80
2010s   99.15

 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Montpelier ASOS down to a dew of 30F.  

Dry air mass and not a cloud in the sky...

Radiators mount up tonight. 

Depends on the winds. Still a pretty good breeze blowing out there, so we're already wasting prime time which is usually from just before sunset to about 9 when you expect the quickest drop off.

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

High of 60 here. Days and days before that happens again?

Eh...something will sneak in after the next 7-10 days...at least up here. There's some chamber wx in the extended, but of course COC (depending on one's definition) is starting to become AN.

You've had some chilly highs lately. I had 60.3F and you think I'm an icebox. ;)

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