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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Summer weekend. Until then, it's a taste of Autumn. Tomorrow may struggle for 60 in spots.

I bet if the wind were to be offshore, given that thermal plumb?  it would expose that 'autumnal vibe' as bootlegged. 

it's mild at 900 mb 13C?   mm, this is just an idiosyncrasy of this oddball fold-over look at H500 we've had pretty much all year, and it's favoring high pressures from the N to slope the lower sounding intervals unuually far left/upright.   

I mean I'd like to see an actual +PNAP pan American look before crediting autumn arrival - 

I'm almost wondering if the AMO is partly to blame for why troughs won't exit in a timely fashion.  Look at the Euro at 24 hours... trough in the Maritimes, but 48 hours the axis of that trough has progressed half way to England yet the heights won't rise over NE ... The following annotations are a gross repro for that, which has also been a repeating pattern of behavior for months frankly.. 

image.thumb.png.be648014ddee5bf396b814380136435b.png

                           ( blue line is a "virtual" trajectory/emergent property of anticyclonic rotation of major features )

This recurring theme over several months morphs/slopes the trough backward W, while higher heights end up lobing NW, so we get this undercut look - like there is some sort of emergent property for anti-cyclonic curl going on at very large scales. This behavior has been happening and verifying all summer. It's kepts our above normals out of head-lines - which ...admittedly, no one would complain ha.  Buut, just the same, it's hiding the NE U.S. and Maritimes from being "as warm" as they could.   

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Euro op already has 2 cold fronts in the d7-10. So it'll be a warm 3-5 day stretch, but we'll still get mild down fronts to bring us back down to seasonable levels. It's tough to pull a neverending ridge this time of year. A CFL player farts in front of a doctor and it's enough to change the airmass.

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Warm hemisphere on our side ... with an idiosyncratic cold node over us - enabling as usual...  It's not autumn in my mind until that shit stops and one of these GFS la-la range patterns actually succeeds for the better... SO just imho - I'm sure other's basking in 37 F radiational "luck" are just fine believing the seasons have changed profoundly and incontrovertibly and that is fine too -

Agreed on the freeze necessity, though.  I'm good with the gardeners having to pack it in this late. We've been in gravy mode for a couple of weeks as it is, with straggler tomatoes or whatever bonus..  Was ambling down the aisles of my in-laws big garden in 75 F Pandora utopia weather the other day, and rows of tomatoes albeit midriff blighted, the crowns were still yellow flowers amid some late ripeners... and I have to admit, seems tomatoes turning red in mid September are sweeter than those that do so in mid July.  They've been jarring and had a good year.  Peppers did extremely well, too.  Plus some more exotics.  Good year all around and no losses in moving on...

I'm not a epidemiologist by any stretch, but it seems to me ... kill the mosquitoes, kill the spread of this EEE.  It's a nasty one, with 1/3 mortality rate and even higher rates of permanent neurological damage.  If you get that, it's dicey whether you end up a tongue-biter or not.  And as far as I've read/heard/seen it's entirely spread intravenously ...by mosquito syringe.  

As a digression into 'holism' ... I have a Gaia hypothesis that mosquitoes were invented by evolution as a population control mechanism.  It seems to fit all dimensions of biota-management ( if you will..).  Think about it.  Humans over populate by profligate means of environmental exploitation --> warm sultry world that is conducive to ( mosquitoes + migratory pathogenic invasion)/2 = a shit storm of die off potential.  Or, even in well-behaved static population numbers ... just the baser Malaria and EEE, and who knows what else ... keep numbers down.  

Problem with humidity is that ... ha!  Humidity - how's that for a Freudian slip... problem with Humanity is that we've out-foxed these natural "checks-and-balances" and are no longer proxy-over by forces of ecology and other limiting factors.  But our ingenuity comes with a price, as there is no way in the Universe to give to one system, without taking from another.  And well... here we are facing declines in more ways, both directly and indirectly, from the others, those in which we are still inextricably reliant upon - catch-22 in a way.  Synergistic breakdowns are looming, too.  

Anyway... slow morning here at the office. Sorry for the soap- box but ...whats new from me :) 

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

All I ask is that we get a hard freeze to kill the bugs then let it be warm till December.

41.7°F here this morning but looks like i may get what you wish for Thursday am...............

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
755 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>010-181200-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-
755 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, central New
Hampshire and northern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Areas of frost will be possible across northern New Hampshire and
the western Maine mountains tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A frost is likely in many areas Wednesday night, with a freeze
possible also.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$
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