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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks beautiful.  

This is a perfect time to flip to above normal for a while to keep utility costs down.  We have been very close to having to turn the heat on for the last two weeks at times, and I hate paying for heat in September.  This upcoming pattern looks to be very similar temps to the end of August, which was Chamber of Commerce beauty.  

I bet we are mostly 70s with lows 45-55F.  Perfect for not having to turn the heat on and we only used AC once this summer, so not worried about that.  

I do feel for those in SNE who are now yearning for the temps we have had over the past few weeks, but will have to wait several more weeks for that type of weather.  

It's been absolutely beautiful here the last few weeks as well.  70's and dry for the most part.  One day...last Wednesday was hot(89 and humid), but it was only one day, and then Thursday was 71-72 for highs and breezy.  It's been very easy to take so far this September..nothing like last year at all.  And yesterday at 82 was warm and dry and just perfect.  No issues here this September so far.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

70s is fine, but 80s in September is like summer’s bad  morning after hangover breathe lying Around. Time to rinse with Listerine. 

I guess everybody is different.   Yesterday was 82 here, and with very low dews it felt great.  If the humidity is up there, then I can certainly understand what you're saying.  

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess everybody is different.   Yesterday was 82 here, and with very low dews it felt great.  If the humidity is up there, then I can certainly understand what you're saying.  

Should clarify. Late September into October. It was nice yesterday.  The weeklies will have massive face plant. 

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

70s is fine, but 80s in September is like summer’s bad  morning after hangover breathe lying Around. Time to rinse with Listerine. 

Maybe if those 80s come with 65-70 dews like 2 years ago, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards.  Many many years ago in NNJ, the occasional 80+ in mid-late October felt wonderful - always w/o stickiness and if on a weekend I knew the fishing action would be fast.

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36 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe if those 80s come with 65-70 dews like 2 years ago, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards.  Many many years ago in NNJ, the occasional 80+ in mid-late October felt wonderful - always w/o stickiness and if on a weekend I knew the fishing action would be fast.

Yeah it’s too early to say. The overall H5 pattern is warm. All kidding aside, it’s a warm look. My guess is some dews will try to make an appearance at least down here anyways. 

It’s a personal preference for me. I enjoy those crisp cool downs. It doesn’t have to be frosty, but the awful memories of Colombus Day weekend of 2011 still haunt me. Upper 80s and A/C blasting the whole weekend. It could have been 4th of July weekend. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s too early to say. The overall H5 pattern is warm. All kidding aside, it’s a warm look. My guess is some dews will try to make an appearance at least down here anyways. 

It’s a personal preference for me. I enjoy those crisp cool downs. It doesn’t have to be frosty, but the awful memories of Colombus Day weekend of 2011 still haunt me. Upper 80s and A/C blasting the whole weekend. It could have been 4th of July weekend. 

Leaves turning back to green after changing colors?

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I love it boring right now... 

And, I also disagree with 80s in September.

In fact, I want 80s through Halloween night, and then ... -10 C at 850 the morning of November 1, followed by the high likeliness of ever seeing 8+" of snow every three days until mid February.

The reason for that tOtally realistic desire is because of the pure insanity in real futility of wanting snow before November 1.  

Firstly, it won't stick around ...out side of some 1/10,000 year return rate season, which probably requires some sorta Krakaleftnut volcano or something... Otherwise, secondly ... for some reason, when it snows in October ...that hasn't parlayed well into ensuing seasons for me.  It may psychobablogical in the sense that 2" on October 10 makes an average snow winter unacceptably mundane - yes...I'm willing to admit to conditioning.    

Here comes all the statistical proof that it doesn't mean blah blah blah if snows in October... f you.  I'm talking anecdotal existentialism here.  So, may as well get long bike rides and outdoor fun/late golf and outdoor hoops and women clad in me-too, until there's a chance at better staying power.  

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Probably.

I pulled of a +11.4F the other day when it was 85/66.  It would take something special to pull of a +20F.

CON climo for 9/21 is 71/45. So we'd be looking at a 91/65 type day. From my count, CON has 9 91+ days from 9/21 onward in their ~160 year history. That includes 3 92s and 1 93F on 9/21. There's 9 days with mins > 65F from 9/21 onward. That 9/22-23/1970 torch is probably the closest it would be with today's normals...92/64 and 87/67 gets them near +20F.

I know DIT is just throwing weenies around, but it got me curious to see what the chances are for it up here. Give it another month and the +20s probably get a little more common.

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I love it boring right now... 

And, I also disagree with 80s in September.

In fact, I want 80s through Halloween night, and then ... -10 C at 850 the morning of November 1, followed by the high likeliness of ever seeing 8+" of snow every three days until mid February.

The reason for that tOtally realistic desire is because of the pure insanity in real futility of wanting snow before November 1.  

Firstly, it won't stick around ...out side of some 1/10,000 year return rate season, which probably requires some sorta Krakaleftnut volcano or something... Otherwise, secondly ... for some reason, when it snows in October ...that hasn't parlayed well into ensuing seasons for me.  It may psychobablogical in the sense that 2" on October 10 makes an average snow winter unacceptably mundane - yes...I'm willing to admit to conditioning.    

Here comes all the statistical proof that it doesn't mean blah blah blah if snows in October... f you.  I'm talking anecdotal existentialism here.  So, may as well get long bike rides and outdoor fun/late golf and outdoor hoops and women clad in me-too, until there's a chance at better staying power.  

November 1st?  Hell, we're luck we see much snow before Dec 1st and many years we don't see much before Christmas.

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