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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Probably fall webworm, aka uglynest caterpillar.  Looks messy, has little/no effect on the trees as the leaves being eaten have done nearly all their work already.

This is the season when the yellowjackets in particular get both dumb and aggressive.  Maybe they sense that the end is near and want to enjoy their last meals, so they become less wary (easier to swat) but more pestiferous than ever.

No 80s last month, waiting for 1st 70s this month.  (Will undoubtedly come - 15 of 21 Septembers here have reached the 80s and the lowest monthly max is 76.)

When i was in the beer business, This was definitely yellow jacket season as they would be in the empties of beer and juice bottles and can bags, Pretty lethargic though on the cold mornings but fall was there time, In the spring, It was mice in the beer bottles, And you knew when there was a dead one in them, Quite the distinct smell.

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This weekend is looking chilly for sure, but Sunday looks downright cold in NNE.  

Daytime temp anomalies of a solid 15F below normal with max temps struggling to get into the mid-50s up here.  

NW flow is probably a downslope dandy along the coastal plain but the upslope zone looks up to 15-20 degrees colder.  

18z Sunday 2-M temps on the GFS and NAM.  No precip just CAA...brrrr.

BCC220B2-6FED-42AB-AAD1-994D4115F8BE.thumb.png.60c29912c92f200b8ba31400ed0b78ae.png

79469F49-AF4B-4C98-83C5-2CAC3DEA500C.thumb.png.2cadbddb8a12ecafebe6b1319252cd0d.png

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34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This weekend is looking chilly for sure, but Sunday looks downright cold in NNE.  

Daytime temp anomalies of a solid 15F below normal with max temps struggling to get into the mid-50s up here.  

NW flow is probably a downslope dandy along the coastal plain but the upslope zone looks up to 15-20 degrees colder.  

18z Sunday 2-M temps on the GFS and NAM.  No precip just CAA...brrrr.

BCC220B2-6FED-42AB-AAD1-994D4115F8BE.thumb.png.60c29912c92f200b8ba31400ed0b78ae.png

79469F49-AF4B-4C98-83C5-2CAC3DEA500C.thumb.png.2cadbddb8a12ecafebe6b1319252cd0d.png

Been pretty well modeled at least the last 7 days on the backside of Dorian that is was going to be much cooler with the CF coming thru over the weekend.

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Been pretty well modeled at least the last 7 days on the backside of Dorian that is was going to be much cooler with the CF coming thru over the weekend.

Yeah and love how the longer range in the Op models seem to be continuing the autumn theme.  It looks like we may avoid the September torch of recent years where it seems as soon as HubbDave goes back to the classroom, we get a September stretch of 85-90F.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah and love how the longer range in the Op models seem to be continuing the autumn theme.  It looks like we may avoid the September torch of recent years where it seems as soon as HubbDave goes back to the classroom, we get a September stretch of 85-90F.

Oh so no second week inferno like some forecasted here?

 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This weekend is looking chilly for sure, but Sunday looks downright cold in NNE.  

Daytime temp anomalies of a solid 15F below normal with max temps struggling to get into the mid-50s up here.  

NW flow is probably a downslope dandy along the coastal plain but the upslope zone looks up to 15-20 degrees colder.  

18z Sunday 2-M temps on the GFS and NAM.  No precip just CAA...brrrr.

BCC220B2-6FED-42AB-AAD1-994D4115F8BE.thumb.png.60c29912c92f200b8ba31400ed0b78ae.png

79469F49-AF4B-4C98-83C5-2CAC3DEA500C.thumb.png.2cadbddb8a12ecafebe6b1319252cd0d.png

Perfect hiking wx, breezy and cool, folks walking around town with a little bounce in their step, stoked. 

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5 hours ago, dryslot said:

When i was in the beer business, This was definitely yellow jacket season as they would be in the empties of beer and juice bottles and can bags, Pretty lethargic though on the cold mornings but fall was there time, In the spring, It was mice in the beer bottles, And you knew when there was a dead one in them, Quite the distinct smell.

Back when I lived in Gardiner I made the mistake of putting one of those bite-size Hershey bars on the dash of the carbureted 1983 Escort before driving home from my deer hunting area, and the candy slipped down the heater hole.  Smelled nice on the trip, but we then parked the car over winter.  In the spring there was a foul odor in the car and when I ran the heater fan pieces of insulation flew out.  Obviously a mouse/vole had smelled the riches and then probably nested in the shelter but succumbed during the cold.  We were giving the car to our daughter for college in SC so I had to drive it around for quite a while with the heater on high (windows open because it was warmer that day than today) to get the stench down to a bearable level.

Unrestrictive sun today and cool.  That CAA map of PF's is impressive.  If things were to relax and go calm just after nightfall, I might be scraping the windshield Monday morning.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This weekend is looking chilly for sure, but Sunday looks downright cold in NNE.  

Daytime temp anomalies of a solid 15F below normal with max temps struggling to get into the mid-50s up here.  

NW flow is probably a downslope dandy along the coastal plain but the upslope zone looks up to 15-20 degrees colder.  

18z Sunday 2-M temps on the GFS and NAM.  No precip just CAA...brrrr.

BCC220B2-6FED-42AB-AAD1-994D4115F8BE.thumb.png.60c29912c92f200b8ba31400ed0b78ae.png

79469F49-AF4B-4C98-83C5-2CAC3DEA500C.thumb.png.2cadbddb8a12ecafebe6b1319252cd0d.png

Looks like I start my annual, irrational, with no supporting evidence fear of the rubber band snapping back from cool to record mild for the entire winter early this year. 

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2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Looks like I start my annual, irrational, with no supporting evidence fear of the rubber band snapping back from cool to record mild for the entire winter early this year. 

Ha yeah we are going to be in for some posts of “ACATT wanted cool weather in the summer, so now this warmth is what we get in the winter.”

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