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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Just a few days off with the snow and near the same level of record cold air mass only difference is the core cold struck the mid west and south harder this time and has a more NE trajectory as it exits. 

Any mathematicians in the house what are the odds of this in back to back Novembers love to know.

 

Probably lower than the odds of back to back winters of azz...pepperidge farm remembers.

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Some record low Western Chester County PA records are threatened this evening and tomorrow. Record low high elevation record is 24.0 (1995) all-time record is 15.0 (1912). for today - might beat the 1995 record by midnight - currently at 25.7. Tomorrow's record elevation low record is 20.0 (1996) and all-time low is 17 (1920). Low max record 37 (1995) & 35 (1911)

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Coldest temp this season here in Western Chester County also a new record Low for the 3rd time in the last 5 days here in the Philly burbs of Western Chester County. The 23.1 before midnight last night broke the old mark of 24 in 1995 and this morning's 19.1 breaks the record of 20 from 1996. Also the earliest low below 20 since 11/6/91. Impressive early season cold.

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Couple record and tied record lows this morning (from AFD Climate section) -

Quote

&&

.CLIMATE...
Low temperature records were set for yesterday (11/12) and
also for today (11/13). Six RER`s were sent earlier this morning
for cold lows today. It`s possible that more may be set tonight
since it will remain bitterly cold through Thursday. Here are
the record low temperatures for today and Thursday:

Climate SiteNov 13
------------        ------
Allentown18 in 1996  (tied this morning)
Atlantic City22 in 2001, 1996, and 1995 (new record = 21)
Atl. City Marina    24 in 1920
Georgetown21 in 1996
Mount Pocono12 in 1911   (tied this morning)
Philadelphia24 in 1996   (new record this morning = 23)
Reading21 in 1976   (new record this morning = 19)
Trenton 23 in 1920, 1911  (new record this morning = 21)
Wilmington18 in 1911

Climate SiteNov 14
------------        ------
Allentown17 in 1986
Atlantic City15 in 1986
Atl. City Marina    23 in 1874
Georgetown22 in 1986, 1950
Mount Pocono 5 in 1905
Philadelphia19 in 1986
Reading16 in 1986
Trenton 20 in 1905
Wilmington          20 in 1986, 1911

 

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A very impressive November cold outbreak!

Today's high of just 32.0 exactly makes this the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in the Chester County PA 126 years of local records dating back to 1894.

The previous earliest sub 32 day was the 30 degree high back on November 11. 1987. Additionally this morning's low of 19.1 broke the old elevation record (1983-Present) of 20.0 set in 1996. This also marked our 3rd record low in the last 5 days. Looking ahead another cold shot this weekend and no real warmups to above normal that may last through the end of November. We have a good chance to record our 1st below normal month since last November 2018. That month we ended up averaging out at 3.1 degrees below normal - through today we are at 3.8 degrees below normal.

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EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all unanimously advertise a similar day 10 500mb pattern with BN temp regime and the late November "warmup" delayed yet again. Low heights near Aleutians, higher heights in the NAO region and NW coast/W Canada, BN heights Northeast US. Slowly gaining confidence that this is going to be a recurring theme this season. Still a few weeks early though confidence is growing that as we enter December we are going to be tracking. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

gem-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_40.png

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Rather active pattern moving forward the next 10 days with several impulses riding the NS and some active disturbances in the stj. Climo says still a little early to get overly optimistic but all the players are entering the field that we would want to see at this time moving towards late November. A few coastal systems and a few reinforcing shots of cold air (think clippers) next week to 10+ days. If this was 3 weeks later and this potential background state can hold, some happy people gonna be posting in here.

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Paul Knight indicated a cold first week of December then mild the rest of the month, which is my worst fear. There are indicators of colder than normal weather late this month entering December. If we end up "using" all the cold air and then it retreats to the other side of the globe for a full month of actual winter this dude is going to be peeved.

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Paul Knight indicated a cold first week of December then mild the rest of the month, which is my worst fear. There are indicators of colder than normal weather late this month entering December. If we end up "using" all the cold air and then it retreats to the other side of the globe for a full month of actual winter this dude is going to be peeved.

 

If you look at the PV both at the trop and strat levels signs indicate the majority of the cold is actually going to be deep into Siberia and on the opposite side of the N Hemi. With that said, if we somehow continue to have the BN cold show it's hand with the PV where it is forecast to propogate, I dont think we will be worrying about it too much as there are signs now (really far out there but something getting sniffed out?) that CPF may establish in December allowing for the Siberian cold to follow behind. I'm sure it wont be wall-to-wall BN temps all winter....we will undoubtedly see the reloads and relaxing at times. But the signals are looking promising for more cold and less 'mild' this winter. We can only hope the looks continue.

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Paul Knight indicated a cold first week of December then mild the rest of the month, which is my worst fear. There are indicators of colder than normal weather late this month entering December. If we end up "using" all the cold air and then it retreats to the other side of the globe for a full month of actual winter this dude is going to be peeved.

 

I've been around a long time and that guy is one of if not the best that I'm aware of. 

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've been around a long time and that guy is one of if not the best that I'm aware of. 

Yes and around a long time before he retired a couple years ago. But he returns for guest appearances on Weather World I have watched them so long JB was a student met in the 80's.

 

 

 

 

 

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