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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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1st 30's of the year here in NW Chesco and 1st 30's since April 29th. Many lower spots below 600 ft saw some frost and freezing lows this AM. Still no frost or freeze in East Nantmeal. Today's highs across the high spots of Western Chester County ranged from 57.1 in Elverson to 60.8 at KMQS Coatesville. Here in East Nantmeal we only made it to 58.7 -  a couple degrees below normal.

image.png.9459afb97dc557d94a9282c45defddd8.png

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I ended up with a low of 36 here early yesterday morning and had noticed the Frost Advisory had been expanded right to the city line some time later Friday night or early Saturday morning.  It did rebound to a high of 61 though.  This morning the low was a bit warmer at 46 and it's currently 53 and overcast with some sprinkles.  The dews had been in the upper 30s and low 40s yesterday so it's slowly moistening up and moving to the mid-upper 40s.

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Today's rainy reality for all here and the forecast one and two days ago, what if it had been snow. Especially how the NAM "backed down" on amounts last night. Gone 

be a long winter if this is any prelude.

 

 

Go back on TT and watch models since midweek runs. Almost all had nary a drop of moisture affecting SE PA. Specifically, the GFS kept ticking NW almost every run since at least 0z last Thurs. I think that sort of trend would have many here jumping for joy in mid January if that track and trends occurred. 

As far as the NAM seems status quo to me....same stuff different storm. Ramps up totals 36 hours out...then backs down as you said just prior matching most other guidance. It may be a long winter but probably not for the reason you mentioned unless you ride the NAM religiously. 

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Appears on all ensemble means the general teleconnection theme over the next 10+ days is -PNA with EPO ridge displaced West towards Gulf of Alaska. -NAO appears but remains transient and/or weakens relatively quickly. WAR continues to appear but rather than feeding and reinforcing an NAO ridge it splits much like last winter and feeds a flattish SE Ridge. Split flow remains over the Eastern Pacific with one stream displaced into AK and Western Canada and the other undercutting said ridging and riding thru SW US and old Mexico. Nothing too exciting and certainly not an indication of the coming winter pattern. Merely posting what the ens means are trying to show in general.

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Was surprised that I picked up a higher amount of rain from the front yesterday (0.89" w/high of 63 & low of 56) than from the Nestor remnants on Sunday (0.59" w/high 55 & low of 46).

Had some fog this morning interestingly enough and bottomed out at 52 earlier this morning.  Currently 55 and mostly sunny.

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Some patchy frost in the low spots of the County below 600 ft ASL...AM low here so far is the current 40.0. Here above the frost zone we have still not frost or freeze. Our growing season now stands at 205 days here in Chester County. This is now the 12th longest season on record. Looks like we will have a shot at a freeze by months end. It appears the all time record of 233 days set back in 2005 is safe...assuming we record a freeze prior to November 22nd.

image.png.18e8b6fd2a70d92c744938a218db1742.png

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When the GFS OP shows a workable setup (that would still need to work out perfectly), but the GEFS show a completely opposite setup, it should be fairly easy to decide which would be more likely especially given recent pattern trends and climatology:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_48.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png

But then if you look at the years that the climatology data covers (1981 - 2010), it's literally missing the last almost 10 years, where some significant temperature extremes have occurred - notably warm temps even in the last 5 years.

I blame you for this :P but I generated some temp anomaly maps for data from 2010 - 2018 (the latest they have so far) -

(top is "annual" and bottom is "cold season Nov - Apr")

 

temp-anomaly-2010-2018-annual-map-10262019.png

temp-anomaly-2010-2018-coldseason-map-10262019.png

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Upgraded GFS just loves spitting out fantasy snowfall. This is the 3rd or 4th fantasy storm it has shown over the past few weeks and it isnt even Halloween yet. Going to make for an interesting inaugural season this winter 

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Upgraded GFS just loves spitting out fantasy snowfall. This is the 3rd or 4th fantasy storm it has shown over the past few weeks and it isnt even Halloween yet. Going to make for an interesting inaugural season this winter lol:

 

gfs_asnow24_neus_48.png

Looks a lot like this past March, lol.

 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When the GFS OP shows a workable setup (that would still need to work out perfectly), but the GEFS show a completely opposite setup, it should be fairly easy to decide which would be more likely especially given recent pattern trends and climatology:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_48.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png

I think the gefs are still based off of the old GFS model, if so we'll probably see more of this.

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