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Rtd208

September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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It drizzled for a little while, maybe a few hundredths worth. It's breezy, damp and cold. I'm assuming it will drizzle some more as it pulls away and that back line moves through on it's way out. Heckuva way to run a tropical storm.

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49 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It drizzled for a little while, maybe a few hundredths worth. It's breezy, damp and cold. I'm assuming it will drizzle some more as it pulls away and that back line moves through on it's way out. Heckuva way to run a tropical storm.

53° here and drizzle.

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Next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or about 4 degs AN.

58.4* here at 6am.

Dorian is just about to miss the BM by 2-Degrees of Lat., or 110miles, as it zips past 40N  68W  at 7:30am.

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Wednesday into Thursday looks like our next chance for 90 degree heat in the warm spots. There will probably be a sharp high temperature gradient around the region with the highest temperatures again near DC. The DC area experienced record heat a few days ago reaching 96 degrees. This was the first year during the 2010’s that DCA had so many more 90 degree days than EWR. But both locations will a shot to add to the list by midweek.

90 degree days at DCA and LGA

...........DCA..EWR...difference

2019....53...24....+29

2018...45....36.....+9

2017...43....22.....+21

2016...58....40.....+18

2015...52....35.....+17

2014...24....15......+9

2013...25.....35....+10

2012....53....33....+20

2011...50.....31.....+19

2010...67....54......+13

4604CEF5-EE58-4F8F-96FE-ADB20ADA0CA9.thumb.png.04938f89faeed39a9c2ed4b01135c42a.png

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Wednesday into Thursday looks like our next chance for 90 degree heat in the warm spots. There will probably be a sharp high temperature gradient around the region with the highest temperatures again near DC. The DC area experienced record heat a few days ago reaching 96 degrees. This was the first year during the 2010’s that DCA had so many more 90 degree days than EWR. But both locations will a shot to add to the list by midweek.

@bluewave  Do you foresee any effect from the sustained downturn in the SOI for the East later in Sept? 

 

SOI Dashboard

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values


SOI values for 7 Sep, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days -6.34
Average SOI for last 90 days -6.71
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.27
Monthly average SOI values
Jun -9.99
Jul -5.86
Aug -3.14

 
image.png.b44b77a014fa8e050f080145f860c182.png
 
 
 
 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@bluewave  Do you foresee any effect from the sustained downturn in the SOI for the East later in Sept? 

 

SOI Dashboard

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values


SOI values for 7 Sep, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days -6.34
Average SOI for last 90 days -6.71
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.27
 

It’s like a weird atmospheric delayed response to the El Niño. Last fall and winter seemed to be stuck in more of a La Niña-like state despite the El Niño. Now we have the strongest +IOD since 2015-2016 combined with the -SOI. Pretty good developing WWB pattern now near the dateline. Check out how much the summer matched up with the typical El Niño 500 mb pattern.

EC6C93A2-2629-4DC3-9D6C-1DCBD686DD17.gif.d80b513180f5ec119d5f0b6792886275.gif

023E7455-B360-411F-91C9-E080D7CDF4B9.gif.f7076da18d7046583241c41c8eb1955f.gif

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s like a weird atmospheric delayed response to the El Niño. Last fall and winter seemed to be stuck in more of a La Niña-like state despite the El Niño. Now we have the strongest +IOD since 2015-2016 combined with the -SOI. Pretty good developing WWB pattern now near the dateline. Check out how much the summer matched up with the typical El Niño 500 mb pattern.

EC6C93A2-2629-4DC3-9D6C-1DCBD686DD17.gif.d80b513180f5ec119d5f0b6792886275.gif

023E7455-B360-411F-91C9-E080D7CDF4B9.gif.f7076da18d7046583241c41c8eb1955f.gif

Not bad at all, hopefully it continues through winter 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s like a weird atmospheric delayed response to the El Niño. Last fall and winter seemed to be stuck in more of a La Niña-like state despite the El Niño. Now we have the strongest +IOD since 2015-2016 combined with the -SOI. Pretty good developing WWB pattern now near the dateline. Check out how much the summer matched up with the typical El Niño 500 mb pattern.

Wonder if we can approach weak Nino vs cool or neutral. Seems the SH SSWE may be effecting the MJO and the tropics as well. The +  IOD is very impressive . 

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3 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Not bad at all, hopefully it continues through winter 

 

16 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder if we can approach weak Nino vs cool or neutral. Seems the SH SSWE may be effecting the MJO and the tropics as well. The +  IOD is very impressive . 

Yeah, I would rather take my chances with a coupled  El Niño type atmospheric state next winter than what we had last winter. While the sample simple size of dud winters since 2003 is small, they all had some really bad Niña-like features. 

 

 

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According to Michael Ventrice, the tropics are going to stay active for the next few weeks.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks. 

 

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21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

According to Michael Ventrice, the tropics are going to stay active for the next few weeks.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks. 

 

Hard to not go with that during the peak of the season. But there are definitely some factors adding to normal climo. 

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Post-tropical hurricane Dorian continues to pull further away from the region. At 6:15 pm AST, Dorian made landfall near Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Tonight and tomorrow, Dorian will likely make landfall at Prince Edward Island and then Newfoundland before heading out into the north Atlantic.

In part due to Dorian's vigorous circulation, parts of the region experienced their coolest readings of the season so far earlier today. In New York City, the temperature fell to 56° this morning. That was the lowest temperature since June 13 when the mercury bottomed out at 55°. At Philadelphia, the temperature reached 58°, its coolest figure since June 15 when the minimum temperature was 53°. This early preview of autumn will give way to an extended period of warmth beginning during the middle of next week, as heat that has been building in the southeast expands northward.

In the South, a number of new record high temperatures were tied or set. Its some of that air mass that will eventually expand northward.

Records included: Charleston, SC: 95° (tied record set in 1941 and tied in 1947); Miami: 94° (tied record set in 2017); New Orleans: 99° (old record: 94°, 1951, 1963, and 1980); Pensacola: 96° (old record: 95°, 1980 and 1990); and Tallahassee: 99° (old record: 98°, 1941 and tied in 1990).

In addition, today could be Utqiagvik's (formerly Barrow) 50th day of the year with a low temperature of 40° or above. The old record was 32 days, which was established in 1998.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -15.27 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.225.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September. Nevertheless, a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September.

On September 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.154 (RMM). The September 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.228.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 58%.

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I think September 2019 will be the hottest September on record. The ridging looks incredible and doesn't fade. 

GFS has days and days of 90s and lows not dropping below low 70s for numerous days after 9/10.

Wow

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Next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is -1.6[70.2].        Should be about +1.3[71.5] by mid-month.

06Z GFS says double your pleasure with two hurricanes in 5 days.   Lol.

65.4* at 6am.   66.0* at 7am.

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The WAR pattern makes a return this week and next after taking a break since July. Opportunities for 90 degree temperatures in the warm spots coming up midweek. Then the ridge builds again the following week for more 90 degree potential. The record breaking - NAO streak has finally ended.

862AE14A-4B5B-4550-B1B5-794EEF7D9795.thumb.png.48810acb50d0c0f51504d16089cd0867.png

BAD33E12-8586-4229-892C-C67338914097.thumb.png.1f3ba1d4e2ac07ee96fbb9afea418c32.png

F4822BD7-0973-47AD-9A0A-F2BDA2E6D82E.gif.ec3094e003a263f3df1a451750012cf6.gif

Just in time for the upcoming winter.:facepalm::P

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...alot of the mostly sunny forecasts will bust today..satellite looks locked and loaded for clouds

most of the day...

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OKX at 7:30 talked about the cloud cover upstream. Not sure why they didn’t go partly cloudy though. 
 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For this update just tweaked clouds for the next several hours
based on satellite trends, otherwise forecast is on track.

The biggest change to Sunday`s forecast has been to increase
cloud cover from previous forecasts. The modeled sky cover has
not lined up with what has been going on upstream across PA and
the Eastern Great Lakes. Therefore have taken a compromise
approach with respect to clouds for today as skies should
average out partly sunny overall, with more in the way of mostly
sunny skies further east across the region. Intervals of
varying cloud cover with mainly scattered to broken cloud cover
is anticipated further west, especially later in the day.
Temperatures will average near normal with upper 70s in the
metropolitan areas, with lower and middle 70s closer to the
coast. The winds should average between 5 and 10 mph across much
of the region, with an afternoon sea breeze more likely along
the immediate south shore of western Long Island, Queens, and
Brooklyn.

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Down to 54 last night, another great weekend continuing the theme.

Next shot at 90 for the warmer (southern spots) Wed but gotta watch 'clouds getting in the way' then more ridging into the mid and sexond half of Sep.  Although it could be dirty ridgng with potential of tropical influences so while ridging and upper pattern signal very warm finish it may be way of warmer lows.  I think the following is possible

90 degree days from here on out

NYC: 1 (maybe 2)
EWR/ LGA: 2-3 
PHL: 3- 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Clouds burning off and mostly sunny here now.

Of course clouds are burning off after they finally amended point & click to party sunny here.  Looks like they may have to update forecast again back to mostly sunny.

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21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Down to 54 last night, another great weekend continuing the theme.

Next shot at 90 for the warmer (southern spots) Wed but gotta watch 'clouds getting in the way' then more ridging into the mid and sexond half of Sep.  Although it could be dirty ridgng with potential of tropical influences so while ridging and upper pattern signal very warm finish it may be way of warmer lows.  I think the following is possible

90 degree days from here on out

NYC: 1 (maybe 2)
EWR/ LGA: 2-3 
PHL: 3- 5

 

 

 

 

I concur, @SACRUS. Wednesday will likely be a near miss; Thursday has a good chance as does Mon-Tues.

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21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Down to 54 last night, another great weekend continuing the theme.

Next shot at 90 for the warmer (southern spots) Wed but gotta watch 'clouds getting in the way' then more ridging into the mid and sexond half of Sep.  Although it could be dirty ridgng with potential of tropical influences so while ridging and upper pattern signal very warm finish it may be way of warmer lows.  I think the following is possible

90 degree days from here on out

NYC: 1 (maybe 2)
EWR/ LGA: 2-3 
PHL: 3- 5

 

 

I don’t think NYC hits 90, thanks to vegetation. LGA & EWR numbers are possible.

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Post-tropical Dorian is now moving toward the Newfoundland coastline and will be heading out into the north Atlantic. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, pleasant readings will prevail over the next few days. However, by mid-week, an extended period of warmth will develop, as heat that has been covering the southeast expands northward.

In the South, a number of new record high temperatures were tied or set. Its some of that air mass that will eventually expand northward.

Records included: New Orleans: 99° (old record: 96°, 1980); Pensacola: 97° (tied record set in 1980); Tallahassee: 98° (tied record set in 1917 and tied in 1925 and 1990); and, Vero Beach, FL: 94° (old record: 93°, 1949, 1977, and 1978).

Records were also shattered in parts of Alaska. Records included: Deadhorse: 66° (old record: 63°, 2010); Gulkana: 70° (old record: 69°, 1979); and, Hoonah: 75° (old record: 70°, 2010). The temperature at Hoonah set a new September record, surpassing by one-degree the record that was set on September 1, 2019. In addition, through 4 pm AKD, Utqiagvik (Barrow) had a daily low temperature of 47°. If that figure stands, it would be the highest September minimum temperature on record for that location.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -20.92 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.230.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City.

On September 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.101 (RMM). The September 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.165.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 63%.

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14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think September 2019 will be the hottest September on record. The ridging looks incredible and doesn't fade. 

GFS has days and days of 90s and lows not dropping below low 70s for numerous days after 9/10.

Wow

I doubt we get the heat we’re getting will be something to write about... it’s september days are shorter and nights are longer, yes maybe one 90 or two tops in my opinion!

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I doubt we get the heat we’re getting will be something to write about... it’s september days are shorter and nights are longer, yes maybe one 90 or two tops in my opinion!

That's the same guy who posted very definitively "No more 90's" last Wednesday.

  • Haha 3

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

That's the same guy who posted very definitively "No more 90's" last Wednesday.

Lol wasn't that silly. 

In reality it'll probably be another +2 to +3 type of month mostly due to very high mins. 

90s could still be hard to hit outside warmest spots due to the dirty ridging and tropical influences.

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