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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

11mph is hauling? :D

It starts off slow until North of OBX then accelerates. Makes it from Cape May to the Gulf of Maine in 24 hours. That's a distance of like 750 miles. Simple math says on average ~31.25MPH.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It starts off slow until North of OBX then accelerates. Makes it from Cape May to the Gulf of Maine in 24 hours. That's a distance of like 750 miles. Simple math says on average ~31.25MPH.

HAT to NJ (the loop/frame I quoted you) is around 5 degrees latitude or roughly 260-270 mi. That's why it weakens quite a bit- slow movement and land interaction. Beyond that is irrelevant.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

HAT to NJ (the loop/frame I quoted you) is around 5 degrees latitude or roughly 260-270 mi. That's why it weakens quite a bit- slow movement and land interaction. Beyond that is irrelevant.

the land interaction is often missed with east coast storms-Gloria, Irene etc all sucked in drier continental air, yet forecasters went all in for wind impacts (which in the end only affected a small area)

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16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thanks, Chris, was 1983 their latest 90 and 100 degree days?

The latest 90 at JFK was 10-8-07 with the 2nd on 9-24-17. The latest 100 was 8-27-48 with 8-20-83 coming in 2nd. But it’s possible 9-2-53 was last 100 since the JFK data is missing for that month.

1953 still stands as our greatest late season heatwave. One of the few heat records that the 2010’s couldn’t beat.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
1953-08-24 90
1953-08-25 93
1953-08-26 91
1953-08-27 93
1953-08-28 100
1953-08-29 100
1953-08-30 100
1953-08-31 102
1953-09-01 96
1953-09-02 105
1953-09-03 94

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the land interaction is often missed with east coast storms-Gloria, Irene etc all sucked in drier continental air, yet forecasters went all in for wind impacts (which in the end only affected a small area)

Yeah definitely. Gloria is a good example. It was sort of wiped out by the time it reached 40N, even though it was moving along at like 35mph. 

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest 90 at JFK was 10-8-07 with the 2nd on 9-24-17. The latest 100 was 8-27-48 with 8-20-83 coming in 2nd. But it’s possible 9-2-53 was last 100 since the JFK data is missing for that month.

1953 still stands as our greatest late season heatwave. One of the few heat records that the 2010’s couldn’t beat.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
1953-08-24 90
1953-08-25 93
1953-08-26 91
1953-08-27 93
1953-08-28 100
1953-08-29 100
1953-08-30 100
1953-08-31 102
1953-09-01 96
1953-09-02 105
1953-09-03 94

they blamed it on A bomb testing back then...it is still NYC's longest stretch of 90 degree days...

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13 minutes ago, uncle W said:

they blamed it on A bomb testing back then...it is still NYC's longest stretch of 90 degree days...

That was a very impressive US drought in the early to mid 50’s. Most of our higher count 100 degree day years had extensive drought in the Central or Eastern US. We briefly got into this geographic severe drought regime from 2010-2013. Newark was able to set the all-time record high of 108 during the historic Southern Plains drought in 2011.This pattern reversed in the following years with the record rainfall, more clouds, and record dewpoints limiting 100 degree potential.

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was a very impressive US drought in the early to mid 50’s. Most of our higher count 100 degree day years had extensive drought in the Central or Eastern US. We briefly got into this geographic severe drought regime from 2010-2013. Newark was able to set the all-time record high of 108 during the historic Southern Plains drought in 2011.This pattern reversed in the following years with the record rainfall, more clouds, and record dewpoints limiting 100 degree potential.

NYC's driest decade was from 1956-1965...September 1966 had a drought busting event...since 1971 NYC has gotten 20% more rainfall on average than the period 1869-1970...

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

HAT to NJ (the loop/frame I quoted you) is around 5 degrees latitude or roughly 260-270 mi. That's why it weakens quite a bit- slow movement and land interaction. Beyond that is irrelevant.

Why is that irrelevant?

Secondly, it doesn't make landfall until reaching Southern NJ. Big difference from storms like Floyd and Irene which made landfall in the Carolinas and then tracked inland.

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22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why is that irrelevant?

Secondly, it doesn't make landfall until reaching Southern NJ. Big difference from storms like Floyd and Irene which made landfall in the Carolinas and then tracked inland.

Irene didn't really track inland. It made landfall in NC as cat 1 and was still a cat 1 when it hit AC. Like every hurricane that takes a track like that the highest winds will always stay out over water or hit LI. Of course my block was the only place that managed to have a tree come down and take out power lines but I think that had more to do with the incredibly saturated ground since the highest gusts were only 50-55 mph

Image result for Hurricane Irene

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Irene didn't really track inland. It made landfall in NC as cat 1 and was still a cat 1 when it hit AC. Like every hurricane that takes a track like that the highest winds will always stay out over water or hit LI. Of course my block was the only place that managed to have a tree come down and take out power lines but I think that had more to do with the incredibly saturated ground since the highest gusts were only 50-55 mph

Image result for Hurricane Irene

Dude, the center tracked inland for hundreds of miles. It might still have been classified as a category one storm by the time it reached up here but the winds were mostly offshore. Irene was a 12 hour monsoon. I know because I lived it.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

HAT to NJ (the loop/frame I quoted you) is around 5 degrees latitude or roughly 260-270 mi. That's why it weakens quite a bit- slow movement and land interaction. Beyond that is irrelevant.

Well, it will weaken ... but as to how much ... this may also not be the final track. You're absolutely right, but we don't yet know the amount of land interaction. 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Dude, the center tracked inland for hundreds of miles. It might still have been classified as a category one storm by the time it reached up here but the winds were mostly offshore. Irene was a 12 hour monsoon. I know because I lived it.

I mean technically yes but it only weakened by 5-10 mph from NC to NYC because it was mostly over the chesapeake. a track up the delaware river would've caused more wind damage 

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I mean technically yes but it only weakened by 5-10 mph from NC to NYC because it was mostly over the chesapeake. a track up the delaware river would've caused more wind damage 

The system crawled through Eastern NC, well inland. I remember watching the radar. By the time the center came onshore, the entire Southern quadrant had already been wiped out by dry air.

The 00z Euro had a much different scenario, with an offshore track until reaching NJ.

It's totally irrelevant anyway. I'm sure the Euro is going to spit out an entirely different track this run.

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51 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why is that irrelevant?

Secondly, it doesn't make landfall until reaching Southern NJ. Big difference from storms like Floyd and Irene which made landfall in the Carolinas and then tracked inland.

"Beyond that is irrelevant" because that had nothing to do with your post I quoted. You posted the 168-216 hr loop, and said it was moving quickly, when it actually showed a relative crawl for a mid-latitude TC. I was just making sure there was no confusion.

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If you're interested in Irene, you can watch this yourself and see how the system just basically rotted inland over Eastern NC. It had no core left by the time it made landfall anyway.

 

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14 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Hasn't even formed and arguing over Semantics already.

I'm not sure why so many think we could be affected by a tropical system next week, a million things would have to align for the Euro solution to happen. 

I see the synoptics, storm moves through Bahamas just east of Florida and then turns N/NE into a weakness. Ridge reforms to its N/NE and storm turns back to the NW and hits someone on the coast. 

Question is how strong will the system be, how strong will be weakness/ridge be, and where will the storm initially go. Will it be near the Gulf like GFS or east of Florida.

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Whether we get a hurricane or not next week the big change is it's going to be much cooler Monday through Thursday if GFS and Euro are correct. After that we have to see the effects of the two tropical systems as they head North and how they affect the pattern for the last 10 days of September

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Same old story since late July with the record heat remaining to our south. Looks like Atlantic City tied their record high of 94 degrees. Less warm is the new cool for us.

9/12 94 in 1961 91 in 1952 89 in 2005+

2446ED5A-4229-43D1-9FA9-79F0F1669735.png.1394533be171b12572d93c87999ff2c1.png

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC's driest decade was from 1956-1965...September 1966 had a drought busting event...since 1971 NYC has gotten 20% more rainfall on average than the period 1869-1970...

That’s pretty remarkable.   Thanks for the info

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1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

Don't look now but here comes the Euro.

 

image.thumb.png.e652263dce4c2f2d8b0e46c0beec5bba.png

If the weakness that takes it east of FL is weaker or the ridge is a bit stronger than it would've been a hit. 

At the very least it'll make things somewhat interesting. 

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