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Rtd208

September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Fantastic post season beach day in CI today.       A SW light wind saved it from being called hot, because the more slanted sun never quit.

Getting back to the Hurricane Window some mets keep mentioning, it was this run of the 0Z GFS  from Sept. 09 that has been the scariest so far, at 336hrs:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019090900&fh=336

Current run is a paltry version of this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019091112&fh=276

  Let's have some fun with this before it gets serious around here.      Post the scariest runs you've found!

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

central park lagging behind, I dont think JFK even got out of the low-mid 80s, but it was really humid and uncomfortable here, I had the a/c on

JFK is on track for the 6th earliest last 90 degree day. 

#1...6-9-04

#2...7-8-86

#3...7-15-92

#4...7-16-94

#5...7-20-13

#6...7-21-19....so far

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Parts of the region saw temperatures reach 90° or above. Through today, 90° or above days are as follows for select locations:

Allentown: 21
Atlanta: 74
Baltimore: 52
Boston: 14
Charleston, SC: 71 
Harrisburg: 30
Hartford: 26
Islip: 8
New York City-JFK: 6
New York City-LGA: 24
New York City-NYC: 14
Newark: 25
Norfolk: 47
Philadelphia: 33
Providence:12
Raleigh: 65
Richmond: 60
Savannah: 96
Sterling: 47
Washington, DC: 54

Overall, readings will then remain above to much above normal afterward for an extended period of time with some short intervals of cooler readings, one of which will likely be Friday and Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -11.70 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.506.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City.

On September 10, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.508 (RMM). The September 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.633.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 65%.

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Next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or about 2degs. AN (used 62 for low T today)

Month to date is  -0.2[71.1].      Should be near +1.0[70.7] by the 20th.

75.9 * here at 6am, but going nowhere today but down apparently!   77.0* at 7am.   77.3* at 8am.      80.7* by 11am.    82.4* by Noon.

 

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I was starting to wonder when we'd get a fantasy run that shoots a cane up here. 

Eps is also on board for the east coast

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75/74 here this morning, rain missed me to the north and the south, that’s been the theme lately.

I wouldn’t mind if we received a full blown hurricane, I’m so bored.

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2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

75/74 here this morning, rain missed me to the north and the south, that’s been the theme lately.

Looks like most of the rain for tonight will be centered further SW towards Philly and Southern NJ per the NAM and HRRR. The 06z RGEM was further NE. 

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24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like most of the rain for tonight will be centered further SW towards Philly and Southern NJ per the NAM and HRRR. The 06z RGEM was further NE. 

Makes sense, the cold front will be south of our area by then and we'll have decent NE winds ushering cooler air-models have areas N and E of NYC slipping to near 60 by 6-7pm tonight.

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12 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Well that's a nightmare scenario for pushing water into the NY Bight. 

Hauling it on the way up

KxGeDTY.gif

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