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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Still on track for a brief warm up next few days as the warm spots may approach 90. But followed by another cool down with the next big Canadian high. What a difference a year makes as Newark reached 98 last September. That was the 4th highest September maximum temperature at Newark.

Yeah 90 will probably be the best we can do. Overall I'm seeing mostly 80s for the next 10 days or so, which is solidly AN. 

Wonder if the blocking will return.

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56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah 90 will probably be the best we can do. Overall I'm seeing mostly 80s for the next 10 days or so, which is solidly AN. 

Wonder if the blocking will return.

Thursday looks like an impressive backdoor cold front for  this time of year after the brief warm up. 50’s to our north with 90’s down around DC. Coastal sections could see NE gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range with such strong high pressure over New England.

023386B1-8508-4D46-B50D-1C161F7D77EE.thumb.gif.8848f7971da4d77ff27fb99ce55c5f8d.gif

D69A9A4A-3B7C-4DD9-B0F0-A3DB01E8030C.thumb.gif.e2a03b501ac8c579037c65e258f2d22f.gif

 

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Much warmer weather will push into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas tomorrow. Overall, readings will then remain above to much above normal afterward for an extended period of time with some short intervals of cooler readings, one of which will likely be Friday and Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -11.11 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.278.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City.

On September 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.629 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.492.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 68%.

 

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12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

First freeze of the year for Norilsk Siberia, accompanied by a snowstorm... things are looking right on schedule.

4862B477-82F6-47BA-A449-CA0CD6DD1C95.png

They had a great year last year. Didn't correlate for us at all.

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4 hours ago, TriPol said:

They had a great year last year. Didn't correlate for us at all.

All I was saying was that the cold and snow are on their way now. It’s just matter of cold air pushing south. I would think we’ll get cool nights, but some very nice weather the next month or so.

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Next 8 days are averaging 72degs, or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.0[70.4].         Should be about +2.0[71.1] by the 19th.

69.0* here at 6am.

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Continuing with the brief warm up followed by big Canadian high theme. The high behind the backdoor cold front will approach peak intensity for this time of year.

641BFBCB-99CE-4CB7-82BB-32A3CC7907D0.thumb.png.93a50de42d4ce79675b507156b7d63db.png

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Highs into the 80’s and above during the 2nd half of September have been fairly typical this decade. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Sep 15 to Sep 30
Missing Count
2018-09-30 84 0
2017-09-30 92 0
2016-09-30 90 0
2015-09-30 89 0
2014-09-30 87 0
2013-09-30 80 0
2012-09-30 79 0
2011-09-30 82 0
2010-09-30 90 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

it will already hit 80 by Saturday and into the 80s after that so that cool shot is one day.

Weeklies are warm overall for the next month....there will be cool shots, but appears the warmth will carry the day

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Weeklies are warm overall for the next month....there will be cool shots, but appears the warmth will carry the day

Like every mid September to early October of late. As soon as someone says the heat is over it always comes roaring back 

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late summer early fall warm/hot spells with at least three straight days 80 or higher in NYC...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

2017..9/21-9/27......7...91

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You can never bet on anything with weather.

Two things you can bet in NYC post 2010: Hot (not warm) Septembers and 55-60 the week before xmas. 

Very sad what has happened here. 

If the trend holds, We will be able to say the 2010s is when climate change became local. 

Hence, the hysteria around it this decade

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8 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

You can never bet on anything with weather.

Two things you can bet in NYC post 2010: Hot (not warm) Septembers and 55-60 the week before xmas. 

Very sad what has happened here. 

If the trend holds, We will be able to say the 2010s is when climate change became local. 

Hence, the hysteria around it this decade

I'd bet on the average global temperature being above normal every month and make a killing.

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In the New York City area, September has increasingly become an extension of summer. Prior to 2000, a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above was relatively uncommon. Prior to 1950, Central Park saw such warmth about once every 5.4 years. From 1950-1999 (during which the City has had a mature urban footprint), such warmth was recorded approximately once every 4.5 years.

Since 2000, 70° Septembers have occurred about once every 2.1 years. There have been 9 such Septembers during the 2000-2018 period, which is just below the figure of 11 recorded during 1950-1999. Since 2010, New York City has had 6 cases where September had a mean temperature of 70° or above, including the last four years.


During the 1951-80 base period, the statistical probability of a 70° September was about 24.5%. Since 2000, the statistical probability has increased to just over 42%.

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I'd bet on the global temperature being above normal every month and make a killing.

I'm sure you wouldn't get great odds though, so you wouldn't make much.

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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

late summer early fall warm/hot spells with at least three straight days 80 or higher in NYC...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

2017..9/21-9/27......7...91

Hard to believe that there wasn't a stretch of that last fall. I guess it was more the extreme dews than 80+ temps.

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16 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Hard to believe that there wasn't a stretch of that last fall. I guess it was more the extreme dews than 80+ temps.

The most impressive heat last fall was front-loaded into the first week of September.

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature
Avg Temperature 
Avg Temperature Departure 
2018-09-01 78 70 74.0 0.8
2018-09-02 82 68 75.0 2.1
2018-09-03 95 76 85.5 12.9
2018-09-04 95 78 86.5 14.2
2018-09-05 91 78 84.5 12.4
2018-09-06 98 76 87.0 15.2
2018-09-07 79 71 75.0 3.6

 

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