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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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The EWRC will be finished soon. The original eyewall is almost completely eroded and the new one is taking over. Very hard to predict but it should be completed by tonight if not sooner. 

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7 hours ago, Amped said:

GFS is really close to a phase at 108 hr.  If there's a little more ridging over NE or that jet streak in the great lakes tends further west, watch out New England.

Come Hell or high water (pun intended) we are always 'watching out' :-) 

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6 hours ago, Random Chaos said:

Remember Hurricane Ophelia back in 2005? It was supposed to make a hard left turn toward South Carolina as modeled for a day or so. Instead it gyred in place for a day, then went a completely different direction. I don't trust model handling of low steering current stalls. They just don't do well.

For reference (look around September 9th and 10th):

Ophelia's official track forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/OPHELIA_graphics.shtml

Ophelia's actual track: http://bit.ly/2xqdT1v (slow loading actual storm)

So true, the harder we work to understand these storms the more unpredictable they become. In 1980 when I was in college (yes, I'm that old) we lacked all these tools and depended a lot on logic. These days logic is a tough concept to grasp!! Thank you for this reminder, this storm will go where this storm wants to go no matter how hard we try :-)

 

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Winds have really picked up in that feed past 20-40 minutes. sustained high TS range with cane gusts I am guessing. eyewall is not far to their east (5-10 miles maybe) based on radar.

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8 am update (still crawling along) -

Quote
419 
WTNT35 KNHC 021152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE OVER GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

Plus WPC tweet and their 8 am rainfall forecast-

 

WPC-Dorian_rainfall-8am-09022019.gif

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6 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

00z GFS brings a much bigger impact to Outer Banks of NC and then Cape Cod and SE MA.

My in-laws live on rte 28 and u guys have been attracting severe systems this year. Based on that and that alone ...... :-( Be safe (I'll likely be visiting around that time and hope not to get stuck)

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Just now, jesssean said:

What would cause the forward movement to slow 

The ridge to its North is breaking down and the trough building in is weak so the steering flow is basically gone. Need to wait for the second trough to pull it North.

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What happened to low level recon? I don’t see an update. 

It looked like they had to go back for some reason. I searched twitter for an explanation briefly but didn't see one.

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No word from Josh....


I’m going to guess comms are down across the islands that took the strongest part. That leaves you with satellite and amateur radio as your communications options. If you don’t have either, you don’t have anything.

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32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What josh was describing in his last post seemed life threatening

He did also say the internet was having problems several posts back.  He's also lost contact for several days during some previous chases.

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Looking at the latest imagery with warming cloud tops it appears this system will lose its hold on cat 5 status pretty soon.

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Definitely moving West as you can see the eyewall getting closer to the Northern peninsula. Eye looking a bit ragged but likely part of the EWRC. It would be really something if Dorian completed the EWRC without losing CAT5 intensity.

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