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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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17 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KAMX/loop.html

Too soon to say, but looks like it has almost completely stalled out hopefully sparing the most densely populated areas of Grand Bahama.

 

Looking at Google Earth the area taking the worst of it now appears to have been been scoured by previous storms.  Very little development to the North of Grand Bahama Hwy.  Freeport definitely wants it to gain some latitude and pass to the North.

Freeport.jpg

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The stall looks quite evident.  Even looks like if anything it wants to try and start a more northerly trajectory in the last spin.  I think the due west momentum has been halted.

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14 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

The stall looks quite evident.  Even looks like if anything it wants to try and start a more northerly trajectory in the last spin.  I think the due west momentum has been halted.

Seems to be continuing west again. It looks like it osculated for a bit but IR shows it now continuing west. 

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10 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

Seems to be continuing west again. It looks like it osculated for a bit but IR shows it now continuing west. 

You might be right.  Hallucinations have definitely set in watching this thing frame by frame.  

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7 minutes ago, Hollie Maea said:

In the past 15 or 20 minutes it has resumed its westerly motion again, at least for now.

It looks like it's wobbling around in circles, it really reminds me of trying to get my car out of a ditch.

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Looks to me like an outer eyewall is definitely forming and trying to take over. Thoughts? Looks like it would be a fairly large eye at first before contracting. Looking at radar - harder to see on IR

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First confirmed death... 7 year old boy. Dorian will officially be retired at the conclusion of the 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. May he Rest in Peace.

 

 

 

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

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Might be seeing some northward motion the last few frames in IR. But man. Freeport bahama has been getting smoked in the eyewall for hours.

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Beginnings of a NW or NNW heading perhaps. Remarkably the cloudtops are cooling again. A little surprised there has not been more substantial weakening even if Grand Bahama and Abaco do not make up much sq km. The immediate surrounding shallow shelf was running 30° prior to the core traversing it. I imagine very significant upwelling is occurring. If the stall or slow drift is prolonged, Dorian will begin to lose intensity; however, if the core increases motion again, it will move back off the Bahama shelf over very deep OHC with a 26°C isotherm over 120 meters deep.

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Might be seeing some northward motion the last few frames in IR. But man. Freeport bahama has been getting smoked in the eyewall for hours.

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5 am update/recap (down to 1 mph - almost a stall) -

Quote
846 
WTNT35 KNHC 020850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

 

040036_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Most of Freeport might remain just outside the worst of the eyewall if it does not wobble or drift too far west. That does not mean they aren't getting pummeled. Persistent ongoing 100 mph winds for hours and hours is insane even if they are missed by the Category 4/5 sustained winds. Of course it may do this for over a day or more and they will probably still be devastated. This isn't even taking into consideration long-duration onshore flow from the north into the island piling up surge. Horrible situation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Seeing cooling cloud tops is pretty crazy given how long this has remained an extraordinarily powerful category five hurricane. Recon is en route to measure intensity. We’ll know a lot more about intensity and actual forward motion soon.

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Seeing cooling cloud tops is pretty crazy given how long this has remained an extraordinarily powerful category five hurricane. Recon is en route to measure intensity. We’ll know a lot more about intensity and actual forward motion soon.

I noticed there are 2 AF missions en route and a NOAA hunter that is currently data-gathering in a chunk of area around and east of the GA & SC coasts.

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I noticed there are 2 AF missions en route and a NOAA hunter that is currently data-gathering in a chunk of area around and east of the GA & SC coasts.

Yep I see that too, though one flight looked like it was turning around or circling near the coast (for what I don’t know) on tropical tidbits.

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The eastern end of Freeport is definitely into the outer eyewall now, obviously not where the most intense winds are but still nasty, will have to watch the progression of the ERC. As mentioned above, piling of surge from the north is a major problem. Even if they don't see the extreme wind speeds seen on Great Abaco, the extremely long duration of the event is going to have severe effects. From looking at the Bahamas radar, inner eyewall has a half moon of convection left, Outer eyewall should become dominate soon, dropping wind speeds, but increasing winds over Freeport proper.

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