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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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13 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Definitely moving south of due west. Yesterday (8/31) we were saying that the key model verification would be if it was north of Freeport. If radar trends continue for next couple hours, that won't verify.

radar_9-2-19.gif

I feel like it will ride the southern edge of the island...if it doesn't beginning turning one is hits the end of the island, then there is a problem.

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15 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Every time I see that abrupt 90° turn, my brain refuses to comprehend.

Remember Hurricane Ophelia back in 2005? It was supposed to make a hard left turn toward South Carolina as modeled for a day or so. Instead it gyred in place for a day, then went a completely different direction. I don't trust model handling of low steering current stalls. They just don't do well.

For reference (look around September 9th and 10th):

Ophelia's official track forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/OPHELIA_graphics.shtml

Ophelia's actual track: http://bit.ly/2xqdT1v (slow loading actual storm)

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How much, if any, implication does a later north turn affect the track as he moves up the coast? Does he get closer to the Delmarva after OBX, or does he still end up in the same general model and forecast location?

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1 minute ago, kerplunk said:

Anyone else noticing the pronounced increase in convection on satellite of the SE side?

Yes, I wonder if that will provide a tremendous boost for Dorian.  If he can wrap that massive amount of air around the north side.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Dorian still offshore of FL moving N at 48 on 00z Euro 

Stays offshore through 72 while brushing the east coast of Florida moving N

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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does it looks like it's literally tracing the shape of the island? Lol (I mean, does the direction of a hurricane change with land interaction in that manner?)

The spine of Grand Bahama is about to be significantly wider in Dorian's path, encompassing most of the eyewall. Even though the island is flat, you have to think that the land interaction will contribute to some slight weakening.

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How many residents of Grand Bahama could fit into the eye, and could they just move slowly west with it for as long as possible? (And I bet a fair number of people are doing just that)


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