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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Landfall or just barely offshore at 96 near Morehead City, NC

Amazing how it seems to just stay on the exact same path as the coastline from Central Fla all the way to NC through hour 102.

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GFS is really close to a phase at 108 hr.  If there's a little more ridging over NE or that jet streak in the great lakes tends further west, watch out New England.

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Just now, Amped said:

GFS is really close to a phase at 108 hr.  If there's a little more ridging over NE or that jet streak in the great lakes tends further west, watch out.

Yeah this run is probably good enough for some coastal flooding up to NJ at least.

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Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah this run is probably good enough for some coastal flooding up to NJ at least.

120 SNE is getting pounded with rain from Dorian

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS is really close to a phase at 108 hr.  If there's a little more ridging over NE or that jet streak in the great lakes tends further west, watch out New England.

Wouldn’t that be something if it went all Sandy on us

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Noticeable warming of cloud tops in CDO. Inner eyewall still holding together on Bahama radar but you can see it wobbling around some as outer eyewall is trying to become dominant. Definitely think we will see Dorian tick down more in intensity tonight as internal dynamics are changing 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol 132 is close to a landfall in E ME

that would be something.. I mean I know I've said the NE has nothing to worry about, but.. I did not expect a 185mph hurricane either.

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Wouldn’t that be something if it went all Sandy on us 

Not enough blocking for that. It would be an Irene like scenario, Moving Northeast or north the whole time.

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17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Noticeable warming of cloud tops in CDO. Inner eyewall still holding together on Bahama radar but you can see it wobbling around some as outer eyewall is trying to become dominant. Definitely think we will see Dorian tick down more in intensity tonight as internal dynamics are changing 

looks like it’ll pass directly over Freeport which is a tick South of forecast.

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1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Disturbing models trend are starting to get me nervous. Seems to be itching to bring me a gale.

Do you live in Florida?

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Just now, Minnesota_storms said:

HMON has it going WNW from the start. Satellite is showing straight west. Concerning. 

I’m not too worried just yet.  If it’s not turning by noon or early afternoon tomorrow though then it’s likely this at least gets within 30 miles of the coast of Florida 

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6 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said:

HMON has it going WNW from the start. Satellite is showing straight west. Concerning. 

Yes, for Palm Beach & others in FL 

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On the GFS path, Southport, NC up to Morehead City, NC gets the NE quadrant of Dorian Thursday afternoon and evening. It will be weaker, but still something to watch out for. 

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11 minutes ago, Hazey said:


Nova Scotia. Might catch what is left of it.

yea, looks like east of Halifax/Dartmouth would get the worst of it, especially Cape Breton, then Newfoundland in some form and fashion after that.

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12 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said:

HMON has it going WNW from the start. Satellite is showing straight west. Concerning. 

The HWRF also shows it making the turn now.  In fact, most models show it N of Grand Bahama Island.  The Euro shows it getting halfway across the island and then turning WNW.  If it gets past that point and is still moving west, look out.

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Definitely moving south of due west. Yesterday (8/31) we were saying that the key model verification would be if it was north of Freeport. If radar trends continue for next couple hours, that won't verify.

radar_9-2-19.gif

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9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The HWRF also shows it making the turn now.  In fact, most models show it N of Grand Bahama Island.  The Euro shows it getting halfway across the island and then turning WNW.  If it gets past that point and is still moving west, look out.

Even the Euro I believe had some sort of hard north turn after 06Z tonight   

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What's going on with the EWRC? The inner eyewall simply isn't letting up and is every bit intense as it's been all yesterday. Seems like every time that outer eyewall tries to wrap around it falls apart.

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