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Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Admittedly I am not a mod, but seems like talking about every little couple mile long wobble just clutters up the thread...

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Radar indicates that the storm is currently 10-30 miles south of where GFS, HREF, and HMON placed the storm. This track is south of most guidance. I’m curious as to the longer range permutations of this error, and how it affects track.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

69593241_1120041328192347_23840291736906

 

Half those ensemble members are already wrong as they indicate it should already be running NW motion, but it’s holding steady at nearly due west.

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2 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Have to say that there was no such shift or wobble in the eye evident during the passage in the excellent satellite imagery offered by the College of DuPage here:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-15-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I believe it may be an artifact of this particular display, rather than a real phenomenon.

 

I had been monitoring the visible (true color) shots as it was passing over the island and I think what happened was that cloud debris was more evident within the eye.  That might be what is causing any image blips in the MW channel.  There certainly was a disruption when it passed over Abaco however because the RI seemed to pause, the pressure briefly increased a bit, and then dropped back and has remained steady state at ~914 mb for awhile.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Wouldn’t a larger, deeper storm help to amplify the flow and therefore strengthen the ridge to its North?

Not if a trough (even if it is weak) is impinging on the ridge from the north and west.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Wouldn’t a larger, deeper storm help to amplify the flow and therefore strengthen the ridge to its North?

Watch Levi Cowan video from tonight on tropical tidbits (twitter page also). He actually says last couple minutes of video that a slightly weaker storm could mean it stays in a westerly movement longer and into Fla like HWRF model shows. 

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1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Watch Levi Cowan video from tonight on tropical tidbits (twitter page also). He actually says last couple minutes of video that a slightly weaker storm could mean it stays in a westerly movement longer and into Fla like HWRF model shows. 

Yeah that’s correct.  Tropicals don’t operate the same as say a regular mid lat cyclone that would pump a ridge ahead of its track the stronger it is 

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11 pm update (forward speed uptick to 6 mph) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 020257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

 

220614_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-11pm.png

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that’s correct.  Tropicals don’t operate the same as say a regular mid level cyclone that would pump a ridge ahead of its track the stronger it is 

Thanks for the analysis. 

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5 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It oddly goes out of its way to make landfall at ILM. Like a jog NW rather than the general NE heading it was on.

Hurricane Watch now upto Mouth of St.Mary's River.

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Been watching this thread closely, good job everyone. 

I am on the coast in south Broward, and I am astonished that this has only garnered a tropical storm watch. At this time I am 140 miles from the center of a Category 5 hurricane, the closest I have ever been in my life, only 130 mile from the eyewall where the catastrophic winds reside...

Today we had multiple outer/feeder bands, quite heavy but not much wind, and clouds were moving regularly all day, not particularly fast. Perhaps towards evening an on and off breeze began.

Now, lo and behold with the center getting so close, we have a sustained breeze out there and it is totally eery. Around 20 mph without any rain bands. We are entering the vortex. 

Most remarkably, clouds are racing for the first time today, must be trucking along at 60 mph at least, so when rainbands do hit we will get strong tropical storm force conditions. Even NHC says tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles from the center, and that seems to be accurate, we are now just within 140 miles from the center. But why only a watch still? It doesn't make sense. 

Radar indicates the area where strong and persistent rain bands begin is only 10-20 miles offshore and closing, won't take much now until were getting lashed with them. 

Center clearly moving slightly south of west on radar, satellite confirms this, and it seems to not be losing any forward speed. It's been moving along good all day and that continues. If its really gonna end up south of Grand Bahama, or even over Grand Bahama as it exits into the Gulf Stream, conditions will have already gone downhill in Southeast Florida. It's already so close right now just a little further and were really in the storm. 

Not much longer now until intense bands begin to crash ashore. As the hurricane interacts with Grand Bahama it is spitting out these spiral bands more vigorously. 

The only saving grace is the people around here have been preparing for a hurricane, since the intensity of this storm and how close it is getting is sparking everyone's instincts regardless of the advisory this area is under. 

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42 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Dorian has actually picked up a bit of speed. Now at 6.

Looks like it did (slightly) also appears to be feeling The effects of the GOM upper level high imparting a tad more influence on its presentation. Almost looks like it wants to go on a 255 heading based on cloud presentation 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

00z GFS slightly further west, but stays offshore of the FL coast through 66

It’s a little slower. Looks to be going more in line with the speed of the Euro Op

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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Excellent breakdown of the steering features at play and their evolution over the next 72 hrs by Papin.
 

So is one to impart that if the mid level ridge #2 in Papins discussion slides over the top of Dorian in the next 36 hours then he is blocked and will resume a westerly course into FL/GA?

 

Edit - NM, just saw his part two.  Second ridge is expected to receed thus opening the path NNW up the coast.  Makes sense.

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GFS slightly further west, but stays offshore of the FL coast through 66

It does come pretty close to Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral though. Probably not the eyewall but still a raking. Out of anywhere in FL they probably get the worst hit. Incredibly fortunate that we're not having this situation 80-90 miles west or so directly over West Palm Beach to Ft Lauderdale with a 5 mph moving 180mph behemoth (obviously this is not so for the northern Bahamas which will likely be wiped out. I can't think of a building code that would survive prolonged 200+ mph wind gusts). 

Dorian is essentially Earth's Great Red (White) Spot right now. 

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